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Balance Sheets on Grain Farms from 2005 to 2011 (5/14/2013)
The period of high grain farm incomes since 2006 has led to an overall strengthening of balance sheets on grain farms. Some concerns exist that much of this strengthening could erode quickly during a period of lower returns and declining farmland prices. While these concerns are legitimate, farmers have generally prepared themselves well to withstand lower returns. .  Read the FEFO... |
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Market Size for Us Corn and Soybeans (5/13/2013)
The USDA’s May 10 WASDE report contained supply and consumption projections for the 2013-14 marketing year for U.S. corn and soybeans. For the most part, the market focused on the projections of crop size, but the most important information is in the projections of marketing year consumption. Read the column... |
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A Mixed Rate of Corn Consumption, But Does It Matter? (5/6/2013)
Most of the discussion in the corn market has centered on U.S. planting progress, the likely magnitude of planted acreage, and the U.S. average yield potential. The pace of planting as revealed by the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report will continue to be monitored closely for clues about production potential. Read the column... |
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Late Planting and Tools in FAST (5/1/2013)
The Planting Decision Model includes a “Returns by Planting Date” module which calculates projected returns from corn and soybeans by planting date in northern, central, and southern Illinois. According to projections in this tool, corn will be the more profitable to plant in all areas until late May. In central Illinois, corn is projected more profitable than soybeans into June.. Read the FEFO... |
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How Large Does The Corn Crop Need To Be? (4/29/2013)
Based on corn planting intentions of nearly 97.3 million acres (implied harvested acres for grain near 90.2 million) and a trend yield of 161.5 bushels, the 2013 season started with expectations of a record U.S. crop near 14.6 billion bushels. A crop of that size would be 1.5 billion bushels larger than the previous record crop of 2009 and the record large consumption during the 2009-10 and 2010-11 marketing years. Read the column... |
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The 2013 ACRE Decision (4/23/2013)
Farmers and landowners have until June 3rd to enroll their Farm Service Agency (FSA) farms into the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program, an alternative within the 2008 Farm Bill to the Direct and Counter-Cyclical program (DCP). While ACRE likely will pay less than DCP, enrollment in ACRE may still be advisable as ACRE will make large payments if revenue is low. Read the FEFO... |
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Will Weak Cattle Prices Continue? (4/22/2013)
I thought finished cattle prices were going to have a very bullish year with prices well into the $130s by now. Live cattle futures started the year with the same enthusiasm, but have deflated since. What went wrong? Read the column... |
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Early Season Corn Production Concerns (4/15/2013)
December 2013 corn futures prices have demonstrated a very erratic pattern since early February, with a trading range of about $0.70. Prices have reflected both old crop and new crop fundamentals, including expectations about producer planting intentions and the likely timeliness of planting. Read the column... |
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2013 Cash Rents on Professionally Managed Farmland in Illinois (4/9/2013)
Rents on professional managed farmland will be higher in 2013 than in 2012, continuing a string of years of cash rent increases. The increase in 2013 is less than that which occurred between 2011 and 2012. Read the FEFO... |
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Hog Profits May Still Return with Lower Feed Prices (4/8/2013)
As a new college graduate, my first job was with one of the major grain companies who took many market positions. The executives had a phrase that said a lot. “It’s amazing how often we are right about the market, but for entirely wrong reasons.” My previous statements that hog production could get back to profitability this spring was based on an expected spring hog price rally. The prospects for that rally, however, dimmed in February and March with the reality that pork exports were headed down. Now the prospects for a return to profitability have brightened once again, but due to an entirely different reason: much lower feed prices. Read the column... |
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Recent Price Changes Alter Relative Corn and Soybean Returns (4/4/2013)
During the first quarter of 2013, price changes have increased expected soybean returns relative to expected corn returns. On lower productivity farmland, soybeans are now projected more profitable than corn. Read the FEFO... |
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Another Surprising Corn Stocks Estimate (4/1/2013)
The USDA’s quarterly estimates of U.S. corn inventories have become a source of substantial surprises for the corn market. Dating from March 2010, 11 of the past 13 quarterly stocks estimates have deviated from expectations by enough to generate large price movements. During that period, USDA stock estimates have been both much larger and much smaller than generally expected. Read the column... |
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2013 Corn and Soybean Acreage and Yield Prospects (3/25/2013)
Corn and soybean production prospects in the U.S. in 2013 will hinge mostly on the nature of the growing season and yield prospects. The magnitude of planted acreage, however, will provide the basis for anticipating total production. Likely acreage has been the topic of discussion all winter, with projections in a fairly wide range. Read the column... |
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Mid-Year Soybean Stocks (3/18/2013)
The 2012 U.S. soybean crop was 79 million bushels smaller than the 2011 crop. Because of smaller beginning stocks, the 2012-13 marketing year supply was 121 million bushels (3.6 percent smaller) than the previous year supply. Consumption of U.S. soybeans during the first quarter of the marketing year, however, was record large and the pace of consumption remained high during much of the second quarter. The rapid pace of consumption reflected continued strong export demand for soybeans and soybean products and the drought reduced South American harvest in 2012. Read the column... |
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