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The following materials have been added to farmdoc in the past 60 days:

Review of Export Progress for Corn, Ethanol, and Distillers Grains (5/11/2015)
The focus in the corn market has mostly turned to 2015 production prospects and implications for the magnitude of stocks at the end of the 2015-16 marketing year. Still, the pace of old crop consumption will determine the magnitude of carryover stocks into the new marketing year. In addition, the magnitude of consumption of corn, ethanol, and distillers’ grains sheds some light on the strength of demand heading into that new year. Here, we review the recent pace of exports for those three commodities. Read the column...


Beef Industry Travelling to a Different Drummer This Year (5/4/2015)
The beef industry stands alone in 2015 in its continued reduction in supplies available to consumers. The year of 2014 was a special year for the animal production industries with record high farm level prices for cattle, hogs, broilers, turkeys, milk and eggs. For 2015, a surprisingly fast expansion of poultry, pork and milk production will cause lower prices for those commodities. Beef stands alone in the continuation toward lower production, but prices remain uncertain. Read the column...


Corn Market Expects Large Supply and Weak Demand (4/27/2015)
Corn prices have come under renewed pressure, with a decline of nearly $0.20 in futures prices over the past week. Those prices are now at the lowest level since October 2014. Old crop basis, however, continues to strengthen seasonally in most markets. The average cash price in central Illinois, for example, was $0.14 under July 2015 futures on April 23rd, compared to $0.70 under in late September and early October 2014. Read the column...

Projected 2015 Corn Revenue with Comparisons to Revenues from 2010 to 2014 (4/21/2015)
In Illinois, 2015 gross revenues for corn are projected to be lower than 2014 gross revenues. In 2015 for corn, gross revenues are projected in the mid to high $800 per acre range for farms in Northern and Central Illinois with high-productivity farmland. Gross revenues in the low $800 per acre range are projected for farms with lower-productivity farmland in Central Illinois. Gross revenues in the low $700 range are projected for Southern Illinois farms. These 2015 levels are about $200 per acre below average gross revenue levels for 2010-13. As long as prices are below $4.50, gross revenues in the above ranges are to be expected. Read the FEFO...

Will Soybean Consumption Reach the USDA Projection? (4/20/2015)
With plentiful supplies of soybeans available, the magnitude of 2014-15 marketing year ending stocks of U.S soybeans has limited implications for old crop prices. Those stocks, however, will reveal the strength of demand for U.S. soybeans, will be part of next year’s supply, and could have some influence on prices during the 2015-16 marketing year. Read the column...

2014 Loss Experience for Revenue Protection on Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat (4/14/2015)
Most of the 2014 insurance payments on COMBO products have been entered into Risk Management Agency’s Summary of Business, allowing us to calculate loss performance for individual products accurately. Read the FEFO...

Could the Corn Carryout Really Reach Two Billion Bushels? (4/13/2015)
The last time the U.S. ended a marketing year with more than 2 billion bushels of corn was 2004-05. At that point in time the “old era” marketing year average corn price was $2.06 per bushel. While “new era” corn prices have experienced record highs, those high prices have been reduced on the back of record corn production in 2014. Now, followed by weaker than anticipated first-half implied feed and residual use of corn, some expect for the 2014-15 marketing year ending stocks of corn to be within reach of 2 billion bushels. Read the column...


More Hogs than Expected, Mystery Continues (4/6/2015)
More hogs than expected was the theme of the pork market in the first quarter of 2015. The USDA March Hogs and Pigs report did little to help explain why hog numbers were high, other than to simply admit that hog inventory counts from previous surveys were too low. Read the column...


USDA Stocks and Acreage Estimates Smaller than Expected for Soybeans and Larger than Expected for Corn (3/31/2015)
The USDA’s much anticipated March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports were released today.  Those estimates allow for some tweaking of the 2014-15 marketing year corn and soybean balance sheet projections and for developing projections for the 2015-16 marketing year balance sheets.  Read the column...

Expected Corn and Soybean Returns and Shifts in Acres (3/30/2015)
Expected corn minus soybean returns in 2015 were calculated for U.S. counties. These expected returns suggest that shifts to soybeans are more likely outside the Corn Belt. Moreover, expected 2015 returns suggest smaller acreage shifts than in other recent years. Read the FEFO...
March 1 Soybean Stocks Estimate to Be Overshadowed by Planting Intentions? (3/23/2015)
The USDA's estimate of December 1, 2014 stocks of U.S. soybeans was surprisingly small. Based on the estimated size of the 2014 crop and estimates of exports and domestic crush during the previous quarter, the stocks estimate implied a record large residual use of soybeans during the first quarter (September-November) of the 2014-15 marketing year.
Read the column...
Possible Per Acre Gross Revenues for Corn in 2015 in Central Illinois (3/17/2015)
Possible gross revenues for corn grown in 2015 are estimated for a Logan County, Illinois farm. The mid-point of 2015 gross revenue range is $828 per acre, $52 below the estimate of total costs for cash rent farmland of $880 per acre. Gross revenue is estimated to exceed $880 per acre 23% of the time. Read the FEFO...
Implications of March 1 Corn Stocks Estimate (3/16/2015)
The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release an estimate of March 1 stocks of corn on March 31st. That estimate is based on a near-census of commercial storage facilities and a survey of a large sample of corn producers.
Read the column...

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