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The following materials have been added to farmdoc in the past 60 days:

Monthly Fertilizer Prices: Spring 2014 with Comparisons to 2009 through 2013 (4/15/2014)
Fertilizer prices have been increasing in recent months; however, per acre fertilizer costs should be lower in 2014 than in recent years. Prices suggest fertilizer costs for corn of $150 per acre in 2014, compared to costs near $200 per acre in 2012 and 2013. Read the FEFO...
 
Corn Consumption Continues to Exceed Projections (4/14/2014)
The USDA's WASDE report released on April 9 projected corn stocks at the end of the current marketing year at 1.331 billion bushels. The projection of year ending stocks has declined for five consecutive months and is now 556 million bushels smaller than the November 2013 projection. Compared to consumption projections made in November, current projections are 100 million bushels larger for corn used for ethanol production, 350 million bushels larger for exports, and 100 million bushels larger for feed and residual use. There have been minor changes in the estimate of stocks at the beginning of the marketing year, the projection of imports, and the projection of other domestic consumption. Read the column...
 
Pork: PEDv Losses Not As Large As Expected (4/7/2014)
The headline for the last USDA Hogs and Pigs report could have been: "PEDv Losses Not as Large as Expected." A week later, spring and summer lean futures are down nearly $10 per hundredweight, or about eight percent. Read the column...
 
USDA Estimates Reasonably Close to Expectations (3/31/2014)
The USDA’s much anticipated estimates of March 1 grain stocks and 2014 planting intentions released today contained a few surprises, but no major shocks. March 1 corn stocks and planting intentions are a bit smaller than the average trade guess. March 1 soybean stocks were almost equal to the average trade guess, while planting intentions are slightly larger than expected. Read the column...
 
Causes of High U.S. Corn Yields: Evaluation of County Yields (3/25/2014)
An evaluation of county yields for years between 2004 through 2013 suggests that corn yields have to be above average across the vast majority of the corn-belt counties for the U.S. to have a corn yield significantly above trend. Similarly, county yields in the majority of corn-belt counties have to be below average for the U.S. yield to be significantly below trend. Read the FEFO...
 
Reports Continue to Support Corn and Soybean Prices (3/24/2014)
March is one of four months that contain an unusually large number of reports that reflect supply and demand conditions for corn and soybeans. The number of reports is larger in January, March, June, and September when various quarterly USDA reports are released. Read the column...
 
Cost to Produce Corn and Soybeans in Illinois-2013 (3/21/2014)
In 2013, the total of all economic costs per acre for growing corn in Illinois averaged $1,033 in the northern section, $966 in the central section for farmland with “high” soil ratings, $951 in the central section for farmland with “low” soil ratings, and $872 in the southern section. Read the FEFO...
 
Anticipating the March 1 Soybean Stocks Estimate (3/17/2014)
On March 31, the USDA will release an estimate of soybean stocks as of March 1. Typically, the most interest in the quarterly stocks estimates is focused on corn because these reports reveal the apparent pace of feed and residual use during the previous quarter and that USE is a very large component of total corn consumption. While seed, feed, and residual use of soybeans is a smaller component of total consumption, there has been enough variation in revealed consumption to provide market surprises from time to time. The March 1 soybean stocks estimate this year may be more important than is normally the case due to the rapid pace of U.S. exports, concerns about the size of the South American harvest, and prospects for generally tight stocks at the end of the marketing year. Read the column...
 
Calculations for March 1 Corn Stocks Estimate (3/10/2014)
The USDA will release an estimate of March 1, 2014 corn stocks on March 31 with potentially important implications for old crop corn prices. It has been difficult to correctly anticipate quarterly stocks estimates in recent years, with large surprises reflected in some estimates. The estimate of December 1, 2013 stocks, for example, was surprisingly small and implied a record 2.426 billion bushels of feed and residual use of corn during the first quarter of the 2013-14 marketing year. That estimate started a price rally that was subsequently augmented by surprisingly large export sales of corn. March 2014 corn futures increased about $0.70 from January 9 through March 7. Read the column...
 
Hog Prices Take Off, Probably Due to PED-V (3/3/2014)
How large are the losses of baby pigs due to PED-V (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus) and how will the losses reduce slaughter supplies this spring and summer and for the rest of 2014? No one knows the correct answer, but lean hog futures market participants seem to have decided that the losses will be very large for slaughter supplies this spring and summer. In the past two weeks, April lean hog futures have risen by $10.68 and June futures have risen by $6.10 to record highs. Read the column...
 
Controlling Costs with Lower Crop Revenues: Cash Rents (2/25/2014)
Corn and soybean prices in 2014 are projected to be much lower than prices between 2010 and 2012. As a result, current projections place operator and farmland returns below average cash rents, leading to the need to reduce cash rents. Read the FEFO...
 
Potential Growth in Corn Used for Ethanol Production (2/24/2014)
In last week's issue it was argued that corn consumption during the current marketing year appears to be more responsive to lower prices than generally anticipated, particularly in the export market. The responsiveness reflects not only lower corn prices in absolute terms, but also in relation to the price of other feed ingredients. Arguably, corn has become one of the cheaper feed ingredients currently available. Read the column...
 
Who's Right about Corn Prices? (2/17/2014)
There is considerable difference of opinion about the prospects for corn prices beyond the current marketing year. Those differences are illustrated by the contrast in price expectations reflected in the USDA's baseline projections released last week and the current price structure in the corn futures market. Read the column...
 

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