Table 3. Comparison of Performance Indicators for 2003 USDA Corn and Soybean Crop Production Forecasts and Historical Ranges over 1970-2002
                   
Corn Soybeans
Release Change in Forecast Market Price Change in Forecast Market Price
Month Forecast Error Surprise Reaction   Forecast Error Surprise Reaction
---%--- ---%---
August
  2003 NA 0.5 -2.3 6.4 NA -18.4 -2.8 3.7
  Previous High NA 9.6 4.5 12.7 NA 10.8 3.7 11.4
  Previous Low NA -24.6 -6.3 -6.3 NA -15.5 -3.2 -6.0
September
  2003 -1.2 1.7 1.4 -0.8 -7.7 -9.3 -4.3 5.3
  Previous High 4.5 9.3 3.1 2.2 5.3 9.5 4.2 2.3
  Previous Low -16.2 -14.0 -2.2 -3.8 -16.7 -9.0 -4.0 -5.6
October
  2003 2.6 -0.9 1.4 -1.4 -6.6 -2.1 -3.8 4.4
  Previous High 3.7 7.5 2.4 4.5 6.4 5.2 4.4 4.9
  Previous Low -5.5 -9.7 -2.6 -3.8 -4.8 -6.0 -3.5 -9.4
November
  2003 0.7 -1.6 -0.5 1.0 -0.6 -1.4 -1.4 0.8
  Previous High 4.4 5.1 2.1 10.1 4.4 3.6 2.3 5.2
  Previous Low -6.6 -2.5 -2.9 -2.7   -3.5 -5.8 -1.5 -2.2
Notes:  NA stands for not applicable.  The previous high and low for a given month refer to the high and low over the 1970-2002 period. Change in forecast is the percentage change in a USDA production forecast relative to the previous month.  Market surprise is the percentage difference between the USDA forecast and the private market forecast for a given month.  Price reaction is the percentage change in futures prices (December for corn; November for soybeans) from the closing (settlement) price the day before a crop report is released to the first non-limit opening or closing price after a report is released.