Table 41.  Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance by Groups Between Pairs of Adjacent Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995 - 2003 Crop Years
                 
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Group Price Price Price Price Revenue Revenue
 in Year t in year t in year t+1   in year t in year t+1   in year t in year t+1
---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per acre (harvest equivalent)---
Top Third 2.51 2.25 6.31 6.08 329 316
Middle Third 2.32 2.22 5.96 5.88 311 309
Bottom Third 2.11 2.15 5.70 5.83 292 307
  Top Third minus Bottom Third
          Average 0.39 0.10* 0.61 0.25* 36 9
          t-statistic N/A 2.70 N/A 3.09 N/A 2.11
         Two-tail p-value N/A 0.03 N/A 0.02 N/A 0.07
Top Fourth 2.55 2.27 6.40 6.11 333 317
Second Fourth 2.36 2.21 6.04 5.88 315 311
Third Fourth 2.27 2.22 5.89 5.96 307 310
Bottom Fourth 2.08 2.14 5.66 5.80 290 304
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth
          Average 0.47 0.13* 0.73 0.31* 43 13*
          t-statistic N/A 3.06 N/A 2.71 N/A 2.69
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.02 N/A 0.03 N/A 0.03
Top Two  Programs 2.71 2.29 6.67 6.34 351 328
Bottom Two Programs  1.95 2.11 5.49 5.91 279 302
  Top Two minus Bottom Two
          Average 0.76 0.18 1.18 0.43* 71 27
          t-statistic N/A 1.40 N/A 3.01 N/A 2.14
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.20   N/A 0.02   N/A 0.07
Note: The selection strategy consists of sorting programs by net advisory price in the first  year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and forming groups of programs (thirds, fourths, top two and bottom two).  Next, the average net advisory price for each group is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average net advisory price of the group formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+1 = 1996).  Next, the average net advisory price for the second year is averaged across the comparisons. There are a total of eight comparisons (1995 vs. 1996, 1996 vs. 1997, 1997 vs. 1998, 1998 vs. 1999, 1999 vs. 2000, 2000 vs. 2001, 2001 vs. 2002 and 2002 vs. 2003), so there are seven degrees of freedom for the t-test. Some average differences of the top and bottom groups may not equal the difference of the averages for the groups due to rounding. N/A denotes not applicable. Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and one star indicates significance at the five percent level.