Table 3.  USDA and Private Market Forecasts for 2004 Corn and Soybean Production
           
Corn Soybeans
USDA Private USDA Private
Month Forecast Forecast   Forecast Forecast
Panel A: Forecasts (million bushels)
August 2004 10,923 10,824 2,877 2,955
September 2004  10,961 10,963 2,836 2,891
October 2004 11,613 11,293 3,107 3,064
November 2004 11,741 11,713 3,150 3,144
  USDA January 2005 Final 11,807 11,807 3,141 3,141
Panel B: Forecast Errors (million bushels)
August 2004 884 984 264 187
September 2004  846 844 305 250
October 2004 194 515 34 78
November 2004 66 94 -9 -3
Panel C: Forecast Errors (percent)
August 2004 7.5 8.3 8.4 5.9
September 2004  7.2 7.1 9.7 8.0
October 2004 1.6 4.4 1.1 2.5
November 2004 0.6 0.8   -0.3 -0.1
Note: Forecast errors are computed as actual minus forecast values. Hence, a positive error implies the forecast value is less than the actual value and a negative error implies the forecast value is larger than the actual value.