Table 5. Comparison of Actual Price Reaction to the Release of 2004 USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts to the Price Reaction Predicted by Historical Relationships over 1970-2003
                   
Corn Soybeans
Actual Predicted Actual Predicted
Month Price Reaction Price Reaction   Price Reaction Price Reaction
---%--- ---%---
August 2004 -1.2 -0.5 2.6 2.7
September 2004  -1.3 -0.3 -0.7 1.1
October 2004 -2.8 -2.5 -4.6 -0.9
November 2004 -0.9 0.0   -1.1 0.0
Note: The predicted price reaction is computed using a regression model of the relationship between market surprise and actual price reaction over 1970-2003.  Similar models for 1970-2004 are presented in Figures 21 and 22.