Table 3.  USDA and Private Market Forecasts for 2005 Corn and Soybean Production
           
Corn Soybeans
USDA Private USDA Private
Month Forecast Forecast   Forecast Forecast
Panel A: Forecasts (million bushels)
August 2005 10,350 10,277 2,791 2,807
September 2005 10,639 10,373 2,856 2,828
October 2005 10,857 10,921 2,967 3,005
November 2005 11,032 10,972 3,043 3,035
  USDA January 2006 Final 11,112 11,112 3,086 3,086
Panel B: Forecast Errors (million bushels)
August 2005 762 835 295 280
September 2005 473 740 230 259
October 2005 255 192 119 81
November 2005 80 140 43 52
Panel C: Forecast Errors (percent)
August 2005 6.9 7.5 9.6 9.1
September 2005 4.3 6.7 7.5 8.4
October 2005 2.3 1.7 3.9 2.6
November 2005 0.7 1.3   1.4 1.7
Note: Forecast errors are computed as actual minus forecast values. Hence, a positive error implies the forecast value is less than the actual value and a negative error implies the forecast value is larger than the actual value. The difference between private forecasts and USDA final estimates may not exactly equal the forecast errors reported in the table due to rounding.