Table 37. Predictability of Market Advisory Program Ranks Between Adjacent Pairs of Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995-2004 Crop Years, Commercial Storage Costs
               
Year  Year  Rank Correlation
t t+1   Corn   Soybeans   50/50 Revenue
1995 1996 Correlation 0.28
0.36 0.36
z-statistic 1.30 1.70 1.68
Two-tail p-value 0.19 0.09 0.09
1996 1997 Correlation 0.01 0.10 0.00
z-statistic 0.04 0.48 0.00
Two-tail p-value 0.97 0.63 1.00
1997 1998 Correlation Text Box: **
0.51
0.17 0.16
z-statistic 2.45 0.78 0.73
Two-tail p-value 0.01 0.44 0.47
1998 1999 Correlation Text Box: *
0.41
Text Box: **
0.63
Text Box: **
0.55
z-statistic 1.93 2.91 2.51
Two-tail p-value 0.05 0.00 0.01
1999 2000 Correlation Text Box: **
0.50
0.35
Text Box: **
0.72
z-statistic 2.48 1.73 3.54
Two-tail p-value 0.01 0.08 0.00
2000 2001 Correlation -0.10 0.02 -0.16
z-statistic -0.51 0.09 -0.76
Two-tail p-value 0.61 0.93 0.45
2001 2002 Correlation -0.06 0.04 0.08
z-statistic -0.29 0.20 0.40
Two-tail p-value 0.77 0.84 0.69
2002 2003 Correlation Text Box: *
0.49
0.19 0.25
z-statistic 2.51 0.93 1.26
Two-tail p-value 0.01 0.35 0.21
`
2003 2004 Correlation Text Box: *
0.40
0.40 Text Box: **
0.54
z-statistic 2.01 1.98 2.64
Two-tail p-value 0.04 0.05 0.01
1995-2004 Correlation 0.27 0.25 0.28
Average            
Note: Return correlations are based on the 24-month average market benchmark price or revenue, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price or revenue). Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and one star indicates significance at the five percent level.