Table 38. Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance by Quantiles Between Pairs of Adjacent Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995-2004 Crop Years, Commercial Storage Costs
                 
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Quantile Price Price Price Price Revenue Revenue
 in Year t in year t in year t+1   in year t in year t+1   in year t in year t+1
---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per acre (harvest equivalent)---
Top Third 2.49 2.27 6.38 6.09 330 325
Middle Third 2.31 2.23 6.00 5.90 312 316
Bottom Third 2.11 2.17 5.66 5.84 294 314
  Top Third minus Bottom Third
          Average 0.38 Text Box: **
0.10
0.72 Text Box: **
0.25
37 Text Box: *
11
          t-statistic N/A 3.17 N/A 3.44 N/A 2.59
         Two-tail p-value N/A 0.01 N/A 0.01 N/A 0.03
Top Fourth 2.53 2.29 6.40 6.12 333 326
Second Fourth 2.35 2.23 6.10 5.90 316 319
Third Fourth 2.26 2.22 5.91 5.97 308 317
Bottom Fourth 2.08 2.15 5.61 5.81 291 311
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth
          Average 0.45 Text Box: **
0.14
0.79
0.31
42
16
          t-statistic N/A 3.57 N/A 3.18 N/A 3.15
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.01 N/A 0.01 N/A 0.01
Top 2 Programs 2.70 2.33 6.77 6.33 353 341
Bottom 2 Programs  1.96 2.15 5.38 5.93 281 310
  Top 2 minus Bottom 2
          Average 0.74 0.19 1.38 Text Box: **
0.40
Text Box: *
72 Text Box: *
30
Text Box: *
          t-statistic N/A 1.63 N/A 3.06 N/A 2.61
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.14   N/A 0.02   N/A 0.03
Note: The selection strategy consists of sorting programs by net advisory price in the first  year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and forming groups of programs (thirds, fourths, top two and bottom two).  Next, the average net advisory price for each group is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average net advisory price of the group formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+1 = 1996).  Next, the average net advisory price for the second year is averaged across the comparisons. There are a total of nine comparisons (1995 vs. 1996, 1996 vs. 1997, 1997 vs. 1998, 1998 vs. 1999, 1999 vs. 2000, 2000 vs. 2001, 2001 vs. 2002, 2002 vs. 2003, and 2003 vs. 2004), so there are eight degrees of freedom for the t-test. Some average differences of the top and bottom groups may not equal the difference of the averages for the groups due to rounding.  N/A denotes "Not Applicable."  Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and one star indicates significance at the five percent level
Margin over 24 month benchmark 0.06 0.28 11
0.08 0.31 12
0.12 0.52 27