Table 41.  Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance Between the 1995-1999 and 2001-2004 Crop Years by Groups, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, Commercial Storage Costs
                 
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Group Price Price Price Price Revenue Revenue
 in 1995-1998 1995-1999 2001-2004   1995-1999 2001-2004   1995-1999 2001-2004
---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per acre (harvest equivalent)---
Top Third 2.52 2.26 6.48 5.70 327 329
Middle Third 2.40 2.19 6.32 5.80 317 318
Bottom Third 2.33 2.11 6.15 5.66 313 316
  Top Third minus Bottom Third 0.19 0.15 0.33 0.04 14 11
Top Fourth 2.57 2.26 6.54 5.77 331 329
Second Fourth 2.41 2.19 6.33 5.71 318 319
Third Fourth 2.38 2.16 6.25 5.81 315 322
Bottom Fourth 2.32 2.12 6.11 5.54 312 313
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth 0.26 0.14 0.44 0.23 19 15
Top Two  Programs 2.67 2.26 6.64 5.93 340 337
Bottom Two Programs  2.30 2.16 6.07 5.34 311 315
  Top Two minus Bottom Two 0.37 0.10   0.57 0.58   29 22
Note: Results are shown only for the 15 advisory programs included in all 10 years of the AgMAS corn and soybean evaluations. The selection strategy consists of sorting the 15 programs by average net advisory price over 1995-1999 and forming groups of programs (thirds, fourths, top two and bottom two).  Next, the average net advisory price for each group is computed for 1995-1999. Then, the average net advisory price of the group formed over 1995-1999 is computed for 2001-2004.   Since there is only one pair of observations in each case, statistical tests cannot be applied.