Table 12.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Corn, 1995 vs. 1996
           
1995 1996
Corn 1995 Corn 1996 1996
Advisory Program/ Price Rank Price Rank Return
  Selection Strategy ($/bu.)   ($/bu.)   (%)
Ag Resource 3.90 1 3.12 1 16.33
Agri-Mark 3.63 2 2.73 6 2.97
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 3.30 3 2.83 4 6.57
Top Farmer Intelligence 3.17 4 2.44 19 -8.26
Harris Weather/Elliott Advisory 3.16 5 2.28 21 -15.04
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 3.16 6 2.64 12 -0.38
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 3.15 7 2.65 10 0.00
Agri-Edge (hedge) 3.15 8 3.10 2 15.68
Zwicker Cycle Letter 3.15 9 2.56 16 -3.46
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 3.10 10 2.58 15 -2.68
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 3.08 11 2.49 17 -6.23
Agri-Edge (cash-only) 3.07 12 2.62 14 -1.14
Pro Farmer (hedge) 3.06 13 2.67 9 0.75
Freese-Notis 2.95 14 2.87 3 7.98
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 2.92 15 2.68 8 1.13
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 2.90 16 2.63 13 -0.76
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 2.90 17 2.46 18 -7.44
Brock (cash-only) 2.75 18 2.70 7 1.87
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 2.72 19 2.65 11 0.00
Ag Review 2.59 20 2.76 5 4.07
Allendale (futures only) 2.46 21 2.08 22 -24.22
Brock (hedge) 2.29 22 2.39 20 -10.33
  Top third (#1 - #7) 3.35 2.67 10.4 0.31
  Middle third (#8 - #14) 3.08 2.70 10.9 1.56
  Bottom third (#15 - #22) 2.69 2.54 13.0 -4.46
  Top quartile (#1 - #5) 3.43 2.68 10.2 0.52
  Second quartile (#6 - #10) 3.14 2.71 11.0 1.83
  Third quartile (#11 - #16) 3.00 2.66 10.7 0.29
  Bottom quartile (#17 - #22) 2.62   2.51 13.8 -6.01
Note:  The selection strategy consists of ranking programs by pricing performance for the first year of the analysis (1995) and grouping programs into quantiles (halves and thirds).  Then, average performance of the same groups is computed for the second year of the analysis (1996). Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark.