Table 14.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Soybeans, 1995 vs. 1996
           
1995 1996
Soybean 1995 Soybean 1996 1996
Advisory Program/ Price Rank Price Rank Return
  Selection Strategy ($/bu.)   ($/bu.)   (%)
Agri-Mark 7.94 1 7.18 14 0.98
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 6.97 2 7.40 4 4.00
Ag Resource 6.92 3 7.29 10 2.50
Zwicker Cycle Letter 6.89 4 7.67 1 7.58
Harris Weather/Elliott Advisory 6.85 5 6.80 22 -4.46
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 6.78 6 7.13 16 0.28
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 6.78 7 7.46 3 4.81
Pro Farmer (hedge) 6.78 8 7.49 2 5.21
Agri-Edge (cash-only) 6.70 9 7.28 11 2.36
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 6.69 10 7.31 8 2.77
Agri-Edge (hedge) 6.62 11 7.18 15 0.98
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 6.59 12 7.40 5 4.00
Ag Review 6.59 13 7.37 6 3.59
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 6.42 14 7.06 19 -0.71
Freese-Notis 6.41 15 7.13 17 0.28
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 6.38 16 7.28 12 2.36
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 6.28 17 7.13 18 0.28
Brock (cash-only) 6.27 18 7.20 13 1.26
Allendale (futures only) 6.21 19 7.30 9 2.64
Top Farmer Intelligence 6.20 20 6.84 21 -3.87
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 6.09 21 7.37 7 3.59
Brock (hedge) 5.71 22 6.99 20 -1.70
  Top third (#1 - #7) 7.02 7.28 10.0 2.24
  Middle third (#8 - #14) 6.63 7.30 9.4 2.60
  Bottom third (#15 - #22) 6.19 7.16 14.6 0.60
  Top quartile (#1 - #5) 7.11 7.27 10.2 2.12
  Second quartile (#6 - #10) 6.75 7.33 8.0 3.09
  Third quartile (#11 - #16) 6.50 7.24 12.3 1.75
  Bottom quartile (#17 - #22) 6.13   7.14 14.7 0.37
Note:  The selection strategy consists of ranking programs by pricing performance for the first year of the analysis (1995) and grouping programs into quantiles (halves and thirds).  Then, average performance of the same groups is computed for the second year of the analysis (1996). Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark.