Table 6.  Pricing Performance Results for 20 Market Advisory Service Programs, Wheat, 1997 Marketing Period
  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Unadjusted Carrying Charges Futures Net
Cash Sales Interest Storage Net Cash & Options Brokerage Advisory
Market Advisory Program Price Costs Costs Sales Price Gain Costs Price
---$/bushel---
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 3.14 0.12 0.17 2.85 0.00 0.00 2.85
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 1 2.35 0.26 0.55 1.54 0.00 0.00 1.75
Ag Resource 3.08 0.18 0.23 2.66 -1.25 0.07 1.34
Ag Review 2.51 0.36 0.48 1.67 0.32 0.02 1.97
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 2.73 0.24 0.29 2.20 0.00 0.00 2.20
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 2.73 0.24 0.29 2.20 0.00 0.00 2.20
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 2.73 0.24 0.29 2.20 0.00 0.00 2.20
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 2.73 0.24 0.29 2.20 0.00 0.00 2.20
Allendale (futures only)  2 2.43 0.86 1.05 0.52 2.70 0.14 3.09
Brock (cash-only) 3.46 0.05 0.08 3.32 0.00 0.00 3.32
Brock (hedge) 3.44 0.04 0.08 3.32 0.19 0.01 3.49
Freese-Notis 3.41 0.07 0.10 3.23 0.00 0.00 3.23
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 3.18 0.13 0.18 2.87 0.00 0.00 2.87
Pro Farmer (hedge) 3.22 0.12 0.17 2.93 -0.09 0.01 2.83
Progressive Ag 3.34 0.11 0.15 3.09 -0.63 0.04 2.42
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 3.37 0.09 0.13 3.14 -0.13 0.03 2.98
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 3.32 0.07 0.10 3.15 0.00 0.00 3.15
Top Farmer Intelligence 3.00 0.20 0.28 2.52 0.08 0.05 2.55
Utterback 3.86 0.00 0.00 3.86 0.09 0.05 3.90
Zwicker Cycle Letter 2.73 0.24 0.29 2.20 0.00 0.00 2.20
Descriptive Statistics:
  Average 3.04 0.19 0.26 2.58 0.06 0.02 2.64
  Median 3.11 0.16 0.21 2.76 0.00 0.00 2.69
  Minimum 2.35 0.00 0.00 0.52 -1.25 0.00 1.34
  Maximum 3.86 0.86 1.05 3.86 2.70 0.14 3.90
  Range 1.51 0.86 1.05 3.34 3.95 0.14 2.56
  Standard Deviation 0.40 0.18 0.23 0.77 0.70 0.04 0.64
Market Benchmark Price 3.38 0.06 0.09 3.22 0.00 0.00 3.22
               
Notes:  Net cash sales price is calculated as (1) - (2) - (3). Net advisory price is calculated as (4) + (5) - (6), and therefore, is stated on a harvest equivalent basis.  The market benchmark price is stated on a harvest equivalent basis.  The market benchmark price is the average daily cash price for the two-year marketing window from June 1996 through May 1998.
1 Ag Profit by Hjort Associates made explicit recommendations to place the enter 1997 wheat crop into the CCC marketing loan program.  This resulted in a marketing loan gain of 21 cents, which is added to the net cash sales prices to arrive at the final net advisory price.
2 At the time of analysis for this report, Allendale (futures only) had not made any cash sales of 1997 wheat. However, the crop is fully hedged using wheat futures.  In order to complete the analysis, the futures positions are closed and all remaining cash quantities sold as of May 31, 2000.  Future AgMAS pricing reports will update and revise results for this program when the final pricing decisions are made.