Table 8.  Pricing Performance Results for Market Advisory Service Programs, Wheat, Two-Year, Three-Year, and Four-Year Averages
  1995 1996 1997 1998      
Net Net Net Net (1997-1998) (1996-1998) (1995-1998)
Advisory Advisory Advisory Advisory Two-Year Three-Year Four-Year
Market Advisory Program Price Price Price Price Average Average Average
---$/bushel---
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 4.11 4.47 2.85 2.05 2.45 3.13 3.37 1.12016
Ag Line by Doane (hedge) N/A N/A N/A 2.01 N/A N/A N/A
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 1 4.54 4.08 1.75 1.34 1.55 2.39 2.93 1.61725
Ag Resource 4.21 4.94 1.34 2.13 1.73 2.80 3.15 1.69862
Ag Review 4.71 3.60 1.97 2.25 2.11 2.61 3.13 1.27236
Agri-Edge (cash-only) 4.01 2.98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Agri-Edge (hedge) 3.98 3.11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 3.21 4.03 2.20 2.27 2.23 2.83 2.93 0.86879
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 4.00 4.18 2.20 2.09 2.14 2.82 3.12 1.12876
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 3.03 3.91 2.20 2.15 2.18 2.75 2.82 0.82874
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 3.91 3.84 2.20 2.05 2.12 2.70 3.00 1.0123
Allendale (futures only) 2 3.32 2.95 3.09 2.65 2.87 2.90 3.00 0.28153
Brock (cash-only) 3.45 3.99 3.32 2.77 3.05 3.36 3.38 0.50103
Brock (hedge) 3.33 3.76 3.49 3.33 3.41 3.53 3.48 0.20316
Freese-Notis 3.66 4.42 3.23 2.54 2.89 3.40 3.46 0.78812
Grain Field Report 3.79 3.60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Harris Weather/Elliott Advisory 4.11 3.65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
North American Ag. 4.19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 3.94 4.09 2.87 2.40 2.64 3.12 3.33 0.82213
Pro Farmer (hedge) 4.38 3.76 2.83 2.47 2.65 3.02 3.36 0.87225
Progressive Ag. N/A 4.29 2.42 2.54 2.48 3.08 N/A
Prosperous Farmer 3.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 3.34 3.85 2.98 2.62 2.80 3.15 3.20 0.52043
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 3.63 3.90 3.15 2.71 2.93 3.25 3.35 0.52615
Top Farmer Intelligence 3.01 3.60 2.55 2.23 2.39 2.79 2.85 0.59326
Utterback Marketing Services N/A N/A 3.90 2.79 3.34 N/A N/A
Zwicker Cycle Letter 3.89 2.74 2.20 2.22 2.21 2.39 2.76 0.79121
Descriptive Statistics:
  Average 3.79 3.82 2.64 2.36 2.51 2.95 3.15
  Median 3.90 3.85 2.69 2.27 2.47 2.90 3.14
  Minimum 3.01 2.74 1.34 1.34 1.55 2.39 2.76
  Maximum 4.71 4.94 3.90 3.33 3.41 3.53 3.48
  Range 1.70 2.20 2.56 1.99 1.87 1.14 0.72
  Standard Deviation 0.47 0.52 0.64 0.40 0.49 0.32 0.23
Market Benchmark Price 3.61 3.95 3.22 2.90 3.06 3.36 3.42 0.45971
                         
Notes:  N/A denotes "not applicable" -- program did not exist or was not evaluated for that marketing year.  Net advisory price and market benchmark price are stated on a harvest equivalent basis.  The market benchmark price is the average daily cash price for the two-year marketing window for each crop year.
1 At the time of analysis for this report, Ag Profit by Hjort Associates had not made any cash sales of 1998 wheat. In order to complete the analysis, all remaining cash quantities are sold as of May 31, 2000.  Future AgMAS pricing reports will update and revise results for this program when the final pricing decisions are made.
2 At the time of analysis for this report, Allendale (futures only) had not made any cash sales of 1997 or 1998 wheat. However, the crop for both years is fully hedged using wheat futures.  In order to complete the analysis, the futures positions are closed and all remaining cash quantities sold as of May 31, 2000.  Future AgMAS pricing reports will update and revise results for this program when the final pricing decisions are made.