Table 13.  Predictability of Market Advisory Service Performance by Winner and Loser Categories Between Pairs of Overlapping Marketing Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995-1998
                Two-tail  
Commodity Year t Year t+1   Winner t+1 Loser t+1 Odds Ratio Z-statistic p-value   se
---number of services---
Corn 1995 1996 Winner t 5 6 0.69 -0.43 0.67 0.856349
Loser t 6 5
1996 1997 Winner t 6 5 1.44 0.43 0.67 0.856349
Loser t 5 6
1997 1998 Winner t 6 5 1.68 0.62 0.54 0.842332
Loser t 5 7
1995-1998 Winner t 17 16 1.20 0.36 0.72 0.489264
Total Loser t 16 18
Soybeans 1995 1996 Winner t 7 4 3.06 1.26 0.21 0.886405
Loser t 4 7
1996 1997 Winner t 4 6 0.44 -0.89 0.37 0.912871
Loser t 6 4
1997 1998 Winner t 5 5 1.20 0.21 0.84 0.875595
Loser t 5 6
1995-1998 Winner t 16 15 1.21 0.38 0.71 0.504635
Total Loser t 15 17
50/50 Revenue 1995 1996 Winner t 7 4 3.06 1.26 0.21 0.886405
Loser t 4 7
1996 1997 Winner t 5 5 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.894427
Loser t 5 5
1997 1998 Winner t 3 7 0.24 -1.51 0.13 0.932227
Loser t 7 4
1995-1998 Winner t 15 16 0.94 -0.13 0.90 0.504149
  Total Loser t 16 16        
Note:  The selection strategy consists of ranking services by pricing performance (net advisory price and return result in the same rankings) in the first year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and then forming two groups of programs:  "winners" are those services in the top half of the rankings and "losers" are services in the bottom half. Next, the same services are ranked by pricing performance for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+1 = 1996), and again divided into "winners" and "losers."  For a given comparison, advisory services must fall in one of the following categories: winner t-winner t+1, winner t-loser t+1, loser t-winner t+1, loser t-loser t+1.  The odds ratio is the ratio of the odds of a winning service in t being a winning service in t+1 to the odds of a losing service in t being a winning service in t+1. Three stars indicates significance at the 1% level, two stars indicates significance at the 5% level, and one star indicates significance at the 10% level.