Table 15.  Predictability of Market Advisory Service Performance by Quantiles Between Pairs of Overlapping Marketing Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, Average for 1995 vs. 1996, 1996 vs. 1997, 1997 vs. 1998 and 1998 vs. 1999
                                   
    Corn         Soybeans         50/50 Revenue    
Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Quantile Price Rank Return Price Rank Return Revenue Rank Return
 in Year t in year t+1   in year t+1   in year t+1   in year t+1   in year t+1   in year t+1   in year t+1   in year t+1   in year t+1   Revenue
Corn Soybeans
---$/bu.--- ---percent--- ---$/bu.--- ---percent--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999
Top Third 2.41 10 -0.06 6.55 10 2.03 330 10 0.18 2.67 10.43 0.31 2.31 11.14 -1.30 2.26 8.14 0.81 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.28 10.29 2.66 6.39 10.67 1.29 5.99 8.29 2.15 #REF! #REF! #REF! 373 10 1 308 11 -1 310 10 0 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Middle Third 2.39 11 -0.99 6.45 11 0.39 327 11 -0.69 2.70 10.86 1.56 2.30 12.14 -1.44 2.17 11.13 -3.09 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.30 9.14 3.02 6.35 10.29 0.83 5.71 13.86 -2.67 #REF! #REF! #REF! 371 11 1 310 10 0 301 12 -3 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Bottom Third 2.31 14 -4.43 6.44 12 0.16 325 12 -1.50 2.54 13.00 -4.46 2.31 11.25 -1.17 2.08 16.25 -7.65 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.16 14.63 1.03 6.38 10.57 1.21 5.77 10.86 -1.77 #REF! #REF! #REF! 363 13 -1 310 11 0 301 11 -3 #REF! #REF! #REF!
  Top Third - Bottom Third
          Average 0.10 -4 4.37 0.11 -2.27 1.88 6 -1 1.68
          t-statistic 1.79 -1.52 1.76 1.81 -1.76 1.69 1.53 -1.32 1.64
         Two-tail p-value 0.22 0.27 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.27 0.32 0.24
Top Fourth 2.46 8 1.76 6.57 9 2.31 332 10 0.75 2.68 10.20 0.52 2.33 10.00 -0.11 2.35 3.80 4.88 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.27 10.60 2.54 6.43 9.20 2.06 6.01 8.40 2.32 #REF! #REF! #REF! 371 11 1 309 10 0 316 8 2 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Second Fourth 2.36 13 -2.17 6.47 11 0.66 327 11 -0.90 2.71 11.00 1.83 2.28 12.80 -2.23 2.11 14.67 -6.10 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.33 8.00 3.51 6.30 12.60 -0.01 5.78 12.20 -1.52 #REF! #REF! #REF! 378 9 3 309 10 0 295 14 -5 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Third Fourth 2.38 11 -1.20 6.50 11 1.22 327 11 -0.67 2.66 10.67 0.29 2.33 10.00 -0.19 2.16 11.67 -3.69 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.24 12.00 2.17 6.39 9.00 1.38 5.87 10.80 0.10 #REF! #REF! #REF! 370 11 1 311 9 0 301 12 -3 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Bottom Fourth 2.29 15 -5.42 6.39 13 -0.56 324 12 -1.77 2.51 13.83 -6.01 2.28 13.17 -2.62 2.08 16.50 -7.64 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.14 14.67 0.79 6.37 11.20 0.97 5.68 12.33 -3.42 #REF! #REF! #REF! 358 15 -3 309 12 -1 304 10 -2 #REF! #REF! #REF!
  Top Fourth - Bottom Fourth
          Average 0.17 -7 7.18 0.18 -3 ** 2.86 8 -3 * 2.52
          t-statistic 2.58 -2.09 2.47 2.21 -4.99 1.97 1.91 -3.41 2.10
        Two-tail  p-value 0.12   0.17   0.13   0.16   0.04   0.19   0.20   0.08   0.17  
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+1 = 1996). Return correlations are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price). Three stars indicates significance at the 1% level, two stars indicates significance at the 5% level, and one star indicates significance at the 10% level. Some average differences of the quantiles may not equal the difference of the averages for the quantiles due to rounding.
Dif Thirds 0.13 -2.57 4.77 -0.01 -0.11 -0.12 0.19 -8.11 8.46 #REF! #REF! #REF! 0.12 -4.34 1.64 0.00 0.10 0.08 0.22 -2.57 3.91 #REF! #REF! #REF! 9.88 -3.38 2.65 -1.71 0.29 -0.37 8.86 -1.14 2.76 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Mean SE t-stat p Mean SE t-stat p Mean SE t-stat p
Price 0.10 0.06 1.785586 0.216088 Price 0.11 0.06 1.814865 0.211207 Price 5.67 3.71 1.531021 0.265427
Rank -3.60 2.37 -1.51989 0.2679 Rank -2.27 1.29 -1.76265 0.220016 Rank -1.41 1.07 -1.32435 0.316463
Return 4.37 2.49 1.75752 0.220907 Return 1.88 1.11 1.689273 0.233229 Return 1.68 1.02 1.639096 0.242864
Dif Fourths 0.17 -3.63 6.52 0.05 -3.17 2.51 0.28 -12.70 12.52 #REF! #REF! #REF! 0.13 -4.07 1.75 0.07 -2.00 1.10 0.33 -3.93 5.74 #REF! #REF! #REF! 12.67 -4.00 3.39 -0.40 -1.60 0.14 12.90 -2.00 4.02 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Mean SE t-stat p Mean SE t-stat p Mean SE t-stat p
Price 0.17 0.07 2.578945 0.123181 Price 0.18 0.08 2.20611 0.158128 Price 8.39 4.39 1.908752 0.196508
Rank -6.50 3.10 -2.0948 0.171193 Rank -3.33 0.67 -4.99169 0.037868 Rank -2.53 0.74 -3.4125 0.076188
Return 7.18 2.91 2.47151 0.132048 Return 2.86 1.45 1.973611 0.187142 Return 2.52 1.20 2.096625 0.170967