Table A4.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Soybeans, 1995 vs. 1996
           
1995 1995 1996 1996 1996
Market Advisory Service/ Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean
  Selection Strategy Price Rank Price Rank Return
---$/bu.--- ---$/bu.--- ---percent---
1995 1996 WW WL LW LL
Agri-Mark 7.94 1 7.18 15 1.40 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 6.97 2 7.40 5 4.42 1 1 1 0 0 0
Ag Resource 6.92 3 7.29 10 2.92 1 1 1 0 0 0
Zwicker Cycle Letter 6.89 4 7.67 1 8.00 1 1 1 0 0 0
Harris Weather/Elliott Advisory 6.85 5 6.80 22 -4.04 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 6.78 6 7.13 16 0.70 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 6.78 7 7.46 3 5.23 1 1 1 0 0 0
Pro Farmer (hedge) 6.78 8 7.49 2 5.63 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Edge (cash-only) 6.70 9 7.28 11 2.79 1 1 1 0 0 0
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 6.69 10 7.31 8 3.20 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Edge (hedge) 6.62 11 7.18 14 1.40 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 6.59 12 7.40 4 4.42 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Review 6.59 13 7.37 6 4.01 0 1 0 0 1 0
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 6.42 14 7.06 19 -0.28 0 0 0 0 0 1
Freese-Notis 6.41 15 7.13 17 0.70 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 6.38 16 7.28 12 2.79 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 6.28 17 7.13 18 0.70 0 0 0 0 0 1
Brock (cash-only) 6.27 18 7.20 13 1.68 0 0 0 0 0 1
Allendale (futures only) 6.21 19 7.30 9 3.06 0 1 0 0 1 0
Top Farmer Intelligence 6.20 20 6.84 21 -3.45 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 6.09 21 7.37 7 4.01 0 1 0 0 1 0
Brock (hedge) 5.71 22 6.99 20 -1.28 0 0 0 0 0 1
7 4 4 7 22
  Top Third (#1 - #7) 7.02 4 7.28 10 2.66
  Middle Third (#8 - #14) 6.63 11 7.30 9 3.02 3.0625
  Bottom Third (#15 - #22) 6.19 19 7.16 15 1.03
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 7.11 3 7.27 11 2.54
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 6.75 8 7.33 8 3.51
  Third Fourth (#11 - #16) 6.50 14 7.24 12 2.17
  Bottom Fourth (#17 - #22) 6.13 20 7.14 15 0.79
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1996). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).