Table A9.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, 50/50 Revenue, 1997 vs. 1998
           
1997 1998 1998
Market Advisory Service/ 1997 Revenue 1998 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
1997 1998 WW WL LW LL
Utterback Marketing Services 354 1 337 2 8.35 1 1 1 0 0 0
Brock (hedge) 346 2 340 1 9.24 1 1 1 0 0 0
Allendale (futures only) 334 3 320 3 3.17 1 1 1 0 0 0
Ag Review 324 4 293 16 -5.64 1 0 0 1 0 0
Zwicker Cycle Letter 321 5 292 18 -5.98 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 317 6 304 11 -1.95 1 0 0 1 0 0
Progressive Ag. 313 7 284 20 -8.76 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 311 8 294 15 -5.30 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 311 9 297 12 -4.28 1 0 0 1 0 0
Brock (cash-only) 311 10 295 14 -4.96 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 310 11 304 10 -1.95 0 1 0 0 1 0
Pro Farmer (hedge) 310 12 306 8 -1.30 0 1 0 0 1 0
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 310 13 316 5 1.92 0 1 0 0 1 0
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 306 14 293 17 -5.64 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Mark 304 15 287 19 -7.71 0 0 0 0 0 1
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 300 16 296 13 -4.62 0 0 0 0 0 1
Freese-Notis 298 17 308 7 -0.65 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Resource 295 18 316 4 1.92 0 1 0 0 1 0
Top Farmer Intelligence 292 19 313 6 0.96 0 1 0 0 1 0
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 291 20 306 9 -1.30 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 283 21 282 21 -9.47 0 0 0 0 0 1
3 7 7 4 21
  Top Third (#1 - #7) 330 4 310 10 -0.22
  Middle Third (#8 - #14) 310 11 301 12 -3.07 0.244898
  Bottom Third (#15 - #21) 295 18 301 11 -2.98
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 336 3 316 8 1.83
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 313 8 295 14 -5.05
  Third Fourth (#11 - #15) 308 13 301 12 -2.94
  Bottom Fourth (#16 - #21) 293 19 304 10 -2.19
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1997) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1998). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).