Table A14.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, 50/50 Revenue, 1995 vs. 1997
           
1995 1997 1997
Market Advisory Service/ 1995 Revenue 1997 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
1995 1997 WW WL LW LL
Agri-Mark 382 1 304 13 -1.95 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Resource 377 2 295 16 -4.96 1 0 0 1 0 0
Zwicker Cycle Letter 332 3 321 4 3.49 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 331 4 311 6 0.32 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 330 5 317 5 2.23 1 1 1 0 0 0
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 329 6 300 14 -3.28 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 326 7 310 9 0.00 1 1 1 0 0 0
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 326 8 283 19 -9.11 1 0 0 1 0 0
Pro Farmer (hedge) 324 9 310 10 0.00 1 0 0 1 0 0
Top Farmer Intelligence 319 10 292 17 -5.98 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 315 11 306 12 -1.30 0 0 0 0 0 1
Freese-Notis 310 12 298 15 -3.95 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 306 13 310 11 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 301 14 291 18 -6.32 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 297 15 311 7 0.32 0 1 0 0 1 0
Brock (cash-only) 295 16 311 8 0.32 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Review 292 17 324 3 4.42 0 1 0 0 1 0
Allendale (futures only) 277 18 334 2 7.46 0 1 0 0 1 0
Brock (hedge) 256 19 346 1 10.99 0 1 0 0 1 0
4 5 5 5 19
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 347 4 308 10 -0.69
  Middle Third (#7 - #12) 320 10 300 14 -3.39 0.8
  Bottom Third (#13 - #19) 289 16 318 7 2.45 0.371093
  Top Fourth (#1 - #4) 356 3 308 10 -0.78
  Second Fourth (#5 - #9) 327 7 304 11 -2.03
  Third Fourth (#10 - #14) 310 12 299 15 -3.51
  Bottom Fourth (#15 - #19) 283 17 325 4 4.70
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1997). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).