Table 9.  Predictability of Market Advisory Service Performance by Quantiles Between Pairs of Overlapping Crop Years, Wheat Net Advisory Price, Average for 1995 vs. 1996, 1996 vs. 1997, and 1997 vs. 1998 Crop Years
Average Average Average
Performance Quantile Price Rank Return
 in Year t in year t+1   in year t+1   in year t+1  
---$/bu.--- ---percent---
Top Third 3.07 8.09 -15.59
Middle Third 2.89 10.59 -21.15
Bottom Third 2.80 12.94 -25.47
  Top Third minus Bottom Third
          Average 0.27 -4.85 9.88
          t-statistic 1.02 -1.26 0.83
         Two-tail p-value 0.41 0.33 0.49
Top Fourth 3.15 7.08 -13.88
Second Fourth 2.84 10.87 -22.83
Third Fourth 2.94 10.93 -19.56
Bottom Fourth 2.74 13.64 -27.81
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth
          Average 0.42 -6.56 13.92
          t-statistic 1.59 -1.94 1.13
        Two-tail  p-value 0.25   0.19   0.38  
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+1 = 1996). Return correlations are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price). Three stars indicates significance at the 1% level, two stars indicates significance at the 5% level, and one star indicates significance at the 10% level. Some average differences of the quantiles may not equal the difference of the averages for the quantiles due to rounding.