Nov 11 | Weekly Climate Review & Forecast

This week was unusually warm, with average temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to low 60s; between 6 and 12 degrees above normal for early November. The warmth continued a generally warmer than normal pattern that has dominated November so far, following what was the 47th coolest October on record statewide. In fact, November to date temperatures have been 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

Everyone picked up at least some rain in the last week; however, totals were mainly less than three quarters of an inch. The northwest part of the state was the big winner with 7-day totals exceeding 3 inches in parts of Jo Daviess and Stephenson Counties. Meanwhile, southern Illinois chalked up another drier than normal week. You have to go back to August to find the last time some parts of far southern Illinois had a wetter than normal week. While most of the state has had a drier than normal fall season so far, precipitation deficits in parts of southern Illinois are particularly sobering, exceed 6 inches just going back to mid-August. Consequently, severe to extreme drought persisted this week in the US Drought Monitor in southern Illinois, while some moderate drought was removed in northwest Illinois. Despite the unseasonable warmth in November, evaporation and demand for water this time of the year are low, so we can make headway on drought recovery if the southern part of the state can get a wet week.

Unfortunately, it looks like we’ll have to wait at least another week to get significant precipitation. Looking ahead, a large low-pressure system is forecasted to dip to the south of Illinois, bring heavy rain to the southeast and possibly heavy snow to the mid-Atlantic. 7-day forecasted totals are less than a quarter of an inch across the state, and much of that is likely to fall as light snow this weekend and early next week. The main reason we’ll see our miniscule precipitation as snow is because of a cold front that pushed through last night, bringing in increasingly cold air. High temperatures this weekend and into next week are forecasted in the upper 30s to mid 40s, while nighttime lows will regularly dip into the mid to low 20s, and some parts of the state will see lows in the teens this weekend. It will be quite a shot to the system given how warm November has been so far, make sure to take precaution if you’re going to be working outside this weekend. That first real cold of the season has an especially hard bite.