Farmland is receiving significantly increased attention by owners and investors seeking to make sense out of the scrambled economic signals of the recent past. Historically, the conventional narrative around farmland as a financial asset is that the returns are positively correlated with inflation, have low or negative correlation with equities, and have positive portfolio benefits in well-diversified holdings due to the relative lack of response to short-term broad market movements. The Fed has signaled an intent to target higher inflation,…
Title: Straining the alphabet soup: Post-election farm policy outlook after three years of ad hoc farm payments
We consider both the short- and medium-run outlook for US farm policy following the 2020 election. We provide an updated review of three years and four rounds of ad hoc farm payments, including an analysis of payment distribution and program design for the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) and Coronavirus Food Assistance Programs (CFAP). We discuss what the perceived need for ad hoc assistance says about standing farm programs such as Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and…
The election and enrollment period for the ARC and PLC programs for the 2021 crop year is now open, and decisions must be made by March 15th. A new crop insurance program, the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO), will also be available for crops produced throughout the Midwest. ECO is a county-based program, similar to the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) that can be used to supplement underlying multi-peril coverage for eligible crops. This session will address these decisions, and provide some…
Grain farm incomes in 2020 were supported by above-trend yields, higher prices than expected, and several forms of Federal payments. These 2020 incomes serve as a backdrop for 2021 income projections. Sufficient 2021 incomes will be dependent on a combination of above-trend yields and continued Federal payments. Risk management will be critical, and several new tools are available this year. Levels of cash rental likely will depend on continued Federal payments.
In a year stricken by the coronavirus pandemic and an extremely severe economic contraction, corn and soybean prices have risen to levels that seemed impossible just a couple of months ago. A critical question for 2021 is the likelihood of sustaining corn prices near $4 and soybeans near $11. In this webinar, we discuss the 2021 supply and demand outlook for corn and soybeans and the longer-term outlook for trade with China.
Leasing season is again upon us. This webinar will first provide an outlook for setting 2021 leases. Then, attention will turn to conservation and leasing. Many landowners and farmers want to engage in more conservation practices but are concerned about the impacts these conservation practices may have on relationships between landowners and farmers. We will cover issues related to owner-farmer relationships for conservation, nutrient management, and cover crops. Conservation addendums to farmland leases available on farmdoc will be shown.
Outlook for farmland prices and rents will be presented from results of an annual mid-year survey conducted jointly by the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers and the University of Illinois. Topics include farm price outlook for the remainder of 2020, rental outlook for 2021, and outlook over the next five-years. Information will be useful as farmland markets enter the rent-setting season.
Overall, the financial positions of Illinois farms are still strong, but erosion has occurred on many farms. Up to this point, most of that erosion has come in the form of reductions in working capital. Debt-to-asset positions have eroded only slightly. Non-declining asset values contribute to the relatively small declines in debt-to-asset positions. Some farms are more at risk, including those that have more cash rent farmland. Also, younger farmers tend to have worse situations than older operators.
Farmland markets outlook will be given in both the short and long-run. The impacts of changes in farmland returns and interest rates will be evaluated. While returns to farmland have been stable, interest rates also have been low, leading to relatively high capitalized values.
We will provide returns projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat production in 2021. Farm income for Illinois grain farms will be projected for both 2020 and 2021. Possible farm incomes will be presented that include payments from the farm safety net.
As summer approaches its end, the coronavirus pandemic has gotten worse, the economic outlook has dimmed and Congress is attempting to negotiate a potential next round of relief for the coronavirus pandemic while the 2020 election draws nearer. This webinar will review the policies put in place to date and attempt an outlook of the policy landscape ahead. The webinar will look at how MFP, CFAP and other ad hoc relief can serve as a leading indicator of policy directional changes, as well as review potential concepts and historical analogues.
The webinar will review the USDA’s U.S. corn and soybean yield and production forecasts released on August 12. The production forecasts will be combined with projections of marketing year consumption in order to project the magnitude of year-ending stocks. The implications for marketing year average prices as well as the likely pattern of prices during the 2020-21 marketing year will be discussed.
The webinar will review USDA’s June 30 Grain Stocks and Acreage reports and considers balance sheet and price implications for both old and new crop corn and soybeans. The USDA’s estimate of June 1 stocks of corn and soybeans will provide a clearer picture of total 2019-20 marketing year consumption, ending stocks, and price prospects. The magnitude of planting acreage will clarify prospects for the size of the 2020 corn and soybean crops with implications for the 2020-21 balance sheets and price prospects.
Title: Tillage, Nitrogen Use, and Cover Crop Impacts of Corn and Soybean Returns in Central Illinois
The profitability of different tillage systems and nitrogen application systems will be presented, along with the profitability impacts of cover crops. Data are for the years from 2015 to 2019 and come from Precision Conservation Management, a project having many partners with Illinois Corn as the lead partner. Over all, certain conservation practices have positive impacts on profitability, as will be discussed during this webinar.
The 2019 growing season was a challenge for Illinois farmers. This webinar will focus on the financial results for 2019 from data from the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) Association. Attendees will learn about 2019 farm income and returns, cost of production and how the challenges of 2019 affected the financial position of Illinois farmers.
Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson and Jonathan Coppess from the farmdoc team will provide updates on the most recent issues in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, including the state-of-play on various policies for assistance in response. The discussion will include potential impacts on commodities markets from the fallout around biofuels production, livestock feed demand and exports, as well as a review of current legislative and USDA policies and the potential impacts.
Bradley Wolter, CEO of The Maschhoffs, will share his perspectives on the impacts that Coronavirus has had on the pork industry, with discussion on human resource, pig health, and supplier issues. Gary Schnitkey will provide an economic update as well as background on recent trends in the pork industry.
The ethanol production industry has been severely impacted by demand destruction caused by coronavirus restrictions. The purpose of this webinar is to examine the financial damage done to the industry and the outlook for recovery through the end of 2020. Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs of the farmdoc team will be joined by Eric Moseby, General Manager of Lincolnland Agri-Energy in Palestine, Illinois to discuss these issues.
Update on farm policy will be provided with discussion on the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program. Income outlook given different potential payment schemes will be detailed. Difficulties in making 2021 decisions given the current policy environment will be described.
Many businesses, including farmers and other agricultural enterprises, applied for and received Payroll Protection Program (PPP) loans. To qualify for loan forgiveness, loan funds can only be used to pay for certain expenses. Join Bob Rhea and Dale Lattz from FBFM and Nick Paulson from the farmdoc team to discuss these issues.
The COVID-19 pandemic has sent shockwaves through the agricultural production system and raised unique legal issues for input suppliers, crop and livestock producers, and processors. The Director of the National Agricultural Law Center, Harrison Pittman, along with University of Illinois Agricultural Lawyers A. Bryan Endres and Jonathan Coppess, will explore the pandemic’s impact on the legal enforceability of agricultural contracts, protections afforded under commodity specific statutes such as the Perishable Agricultural Commodities Act and the Packers and Stockyards Act, regulatory compliance issues with potential large-scale euthanasia of livestock, state-level meat inspection laws, application of the Defense Production Act in the agricultural context, and a new generation of farm foreclosure moratorium laws. There will also be an update on additional relief measures, payment limits and current policy discussions at the federal level.
Over the past two years, policy actions have had major impacts on trade in agricultural products between the US and China. In addition, shifts in the consumption patterns are changing the demand for agricultural products by Chinese consumers. Nick Paulson will be joined by Wendong Zhang, assistant professor in Agricultural Economics at Iowa State University, for a discussion of these issues and how they impact the outlook for U.S. agricultural exports.
The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on livestock markets continues to unfold and place substantial stress on livestock producers. Lee Schulz of Iowa State University joins Todd Hubbs to discuss the impacts and outlook for markets.
U.S. agricultural trade policy, China's push to reconfigure international supply chain lines, the entrance of Brazil and Ukraine into the commodity export markets, and the coronavirus pandemic have all disrupted the once relatively stable U.S. corn and soybean export markets. University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Nick Paulson and IFPRI's Joe Glauber will explore the policies and fundamentals behind the changes and probe the future impact.
Less than a month ago, Congress enacted the CARES Act to provide $2 trillion in relief for the wide range of challenges from the Coronavirus pandemic. Questions remain about implementation, the outlook for additional relief and a general perspective on the political and policy discussions at the federal level for the food and agricultural sector.
The retail food sector has been put under substantial stress by the coronavirus pandemic. What started out with runs on toilet paper quickly escalated to empty meat and bread aisles at grocery stores. Scott Irwin will join Jayson Lusk of Purdue University to discuss the how the pandemic has impacted food prices and logistical issues in this crucial sector of the American economy.
Even with good corn and soybean yields following record-late planting in 2019, there is increased urgency in getting the 2020 crops planted on time. Emerson Nafziger will talk about the start of the 2020 planting season, current conditions, and planting date, depth, and seeding rate decisions in the coming weeks.
The CARES Act includes a number of programs targeted at supporting small businesses. Rural businesses in Illinois have choices about participating in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Join Bob Rhea and Dale Lattz from FBFM, and Nick Paulson from the farmdoc team, as they identify the key components of this new legislation and the impact on business owners.
Scott Irwin will be joined by Jeff Bunting of FS Growmark to discuss crop input supply and logistics issues that may arise due to the coronavirus pandemic. Scott will provide a brief overview of recent grain market developments and Jeff will then provide an overview of crop input supply and logistic issues.
COVID-19 is affecting America’s farmers, ranchers, and landowners in numerous and varied ways. Join Jackson Takach, chief economist with Farmer Mac, and Bruce Sherrick, Professor and Director of the TIAA Center for Farmland Research and a farmdoc team member, as they explore the drivers and linkages between the global pandemic, the related economic stoppage, farm assets, and agricultural finance.
Join Extension specialists from the University of Illinois Departments of Crop Science and Agricultural and Consumer Economics to discuss management recommendations for 2020 related to insect pests, weeds, diseases, and commodity prices.
Todd Hubbs will provide the latest outlook on acreage decisions for 2020. Gary Schnitkey will examine the cash flow and management decisions associated with 2020 acreage shifts.
Rob Johansson, chief economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, will provide perspectives on COVID-19s on the agricultural sector and work continuing within the USDA. Jonathan Coppess, farmdoc team member, will provide an updates that may be occurring at that point, with an emphasis on policy updates.
The webinar will review USDA’s March 31 Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports and considers balance sheet and price implications for both old and new crop corn and soybeans. The USDA’s estimate of March 1 stocks of corn and soybeans will provide a clearer picture of total 2019-20 marketing year consumption, ending stocks, and price prospects. The report will be especially important for projecting the magnitude of domestic corn consumption for feed use. The magnitude of planting intentions will clarify prospects for the size of the 2020 corn and soybean crops with implications for the 2020-21 balance sheets and price prospects.
Gary Schnitkey will discuss the existing farm safety net on crop farms. Discussion will center on losses from old crop, moving on to discussions for new crop. Protection offered by crop insurance and ARC/PLC commodity title programs will be outlined.
Nick Paulson, a farmdoc team member, will lead a discussion of COVID-19 concerns related to agricultural finance. Nathan Kauffman (Vice President and Omaha Branch Executive) and Cortney Cowley (Economist, Regional Affairs Department), from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, will be guests and provide important perspectives. Any recent important updates related to COVID-19 and agriculture will be shared.
Jim Lowe, an expert in infectious diseases in the College of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Illinois, will share his perspectives on African Swine Fever and Coronavirus. Any recent important updated related to COVID-19 and agriculture will be shared.
Join farmdoc experts Jonathan Coppess, Todd Hubbs, Scott Irwin, Nick Paulson and, Gary Schnitkey, as they discuss the coronavirus impact on ag markets, planting decisions, and agricultural policy.
All information is available for the 2020 crop insurance decisions. We will give a run down of risk and returns for the 2020 year, looking at changes from last year. Use of Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) will be discussed.
This webinar is sponsored by Compeer Financial which may be found at https://www.compeer.com/
Questions continue concerning the ARC/PLC decision that must be made for the 2019 and 2020 years by March 16, 2020. This webinar will provide examples of decision-making for specific farm situations. Latest information will be used in this webinar. Decisions must be made by March 15th. Sign up for your appointment with your Farm Service Agency (FSA) office.
NASS will release 2019 county yields for corn and soybeans on Feb 20th. These county yields, along with more up-to-date price information, will be used to refine ARC/PLC decisions for 2019 and 2020. Those counties that likely will make county yields will be identified. Farmers in some counties may wish to revise ARC/PLC choices baed on this information.
We will describe making the 2018 Farm BIll commodity title choices faced by South Dakota farmers. Those choices will involve enrolling an entire Farm Service AGency (FSA) farm in Agricultural Risk Coverage at the individual level (ARC-IC), or choose between ARC at the county level (ARC-CO) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) for each program crop. Situations in which ARC individual coverage (ARC-IC) works will be described. Then choices between Agricultural RIsk Coverage at the COunty Level (ARC-CO) and PLC will…
The decision between ARC and PLC will be discussed in this webinar. Decisions between ARC-CO and PLC will be described for corn, soybeans, and wheat with examples. Situations in which ARC-IC fits will be discussed.
This webinar discusses the implications of the January Crop Production report and the December 1 stocks report. A detailed discussion of USDA’s December stocks report will provide a clearer picture of the impact on corn and soybean balance sheets. The webinar will review the USDA’s U.S. corn and soybean yield and production estimates for the 2019 crop year. An analysis of the production estimates combined with projections of marketing year consumption provide a basis for projections of the magnitude of year-ending stocks in the 2019-20 marketing year. The implications for marketing year average prices as well as the likely pattern of prices during the 2019-20 marketing year and beyond will be discussed with specific references to the pending trade deal with China.