The U.S. ethanol industry entered 2024 coming off one of it’s best three-year periods of profitability since 2007. However, the price of ethanol plunged late in 2023, leading to questions about the outlook for profits in the coming year. The purpose of this article is to estimate the profitability of U.S. ethanol production for the 2024 calendar year and assess whether the industry returned to the lofty profits of 2021 – 2023 or regressed towards the long-run mean level of profits.

The price discovery period for federal crop insurance policies with a March 15th sales closing date ended on February 28th. Insurance guarantees for 2025 are low compared to the 2022 and 2023 crop years when projected prices were higher for both corn and soybeans. This coupled with a higher subsidy rate for 2025 might make the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) of greater interest to producers to supplement their Revenue Protection (RP) or alternative individual plan coverage.

The 1990 Farm Bill began allowing US farmers to make planting decisions not constrained by government programs. This article documents the importance of planting flexibility for US corn, soybean, and wheat acres. Findings include (1) that the ethanol boom has not impacted the long-term increase in either corn or soybean acres, (2) that smaller acreage states play a larger role in corn than soybeans and (3) that corn has shifted more west than north while soybeans has shifted more north than west.

Farm borrowing costs are higher today than they were at the start of 2022. While the recent rate cuts have provided some relief for borrowers, the Fed’s decision to pause their rate-cutting cycle in January indicates that elevated borrowing costs will persist for a while longer this year. There is plenty of uncertainty ahead surrounding federal policy and trade. In this environment that includes lower margins due to lower prices and higher borrowing costs, proactive financial management is needed.

In the Farm Bill, Congress has authorized policy to “conserve the quality and condition of natural resources” and “promote agricultural production, forest management, and “environmental quality as compatible goals, and to optimize environmental benefits.” The previous article opened an exploration of the myriad challenges confronting agricultural conservation policy. This article generally reviews U.S. water law and the challenges for conserving ground and surface water resources.

There is a clear upward trend over time in ethanol conversion rates at dry mill plants, which steadily increased from around 2.80 gallons per bushel of corn and sorghum in late 2014 to a peak near 3.00 in mid-2019 and again at the end of 2024. Just the opposite of ethanol conversion rates, there is a clear downward trend in dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) conversion rates over time. The picture that emerges is one of tradeoffs in operational efficiency of dry mill ethanol plants.