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Conservation & Risk, Part 5: Examining a Risk-Payment Gap for Nitrogen Management

Agricultural conservation policies include assistance for nutrient management. To the extent that this assistance is intended to encourage farmers to reduce application rates for nutrients, such as nitrogen, the policy presents another variation on the conservation-risk challenges examined in this series. This article examines a case study to illustrate the potential costs and risks from reduced nitrogen application alongside the financial assistance available through EQIP.

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Enough Room for the Harvest? Grain Storage Pressure in the Corn Belt

US grain storage capacity can in aggregate hold this year’s carry-in stocks and expected harvest, but potential storage demand exceeds capacity in ten of thirteen Corn Belt states. Historically, grain movement during the harvest period relieves this pressure by December, so a 2026 storage crunch is unlikely. Stagnant capacity growth, however, means future bumper crops could strain the US grain handling and transportation system.

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Variable Cash Lease Considerations for 2027

The variable lease will result in larger rents during higher crop revenue periods and lower rents during lower crop revenue periods, providing some natural risk protection for the farmer tenant while also providing landowners with upside rent potential under better revenue conditions. However, the high production costs that have persisted since 2023 have resulted in some negative average returns even with the variable lease design. 

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Food Inflation and the Outlook for Beef Prices

The August 2026 CPI data show that food prices were 2.7% higher than a year earlier. Food-at-home prices rose 2.2%, while food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4%. Beef and veal prices were 5.9% higher in August than a year earlier, extending a period of elevated beef prices that has persisted for several years. Tight supplies and resilient demand have helped keep beef prices elevated even as inflation across the broader food-at-home category has remained more moderate.

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Liquidity and Repayment Capacity

Previous articles have examined differences in crop machinery investment, crop machinery costs, and labor standards for different sized crop farms (Langemeier, 2025a; Langemeier, 2025b; Langemeier, 2026).  This article examines trends…

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Detecting Tillage Practices from Space: A New Approach to Monitoring Conservation Agriculture in the US Midwest

From 2014 to 2023, the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) invested a total of $133.7 million in no-till and reduce till practices, out of a total of $10 billion in…

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