This article examines longer term trends in general rates and ag input prices. In addition to demand and supply shocks, input prices for ag producers are affected by changes in general inflation. During the 1973 to 2025 period the average annual increase for the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures and the USDA ag price index for production items were 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively. The correlation between the annual rates for these two indices was 0.59 over this period.

This study finds that, over 2015-2024, RMA expected, or projected, county yields understated US corn and soybean actual county yields more than for wheat while overstating upland cotton yields. This difference between average projected and actual yields contributed to corn and soybeans having lower payments for simulated 95% Enhanced Coverage Option with Revenue Protection (ECO 95% RP) insurance, implying the potential for RMA yield projection procedures to impact cropping decisions.

When war disrupts regions that are critical to the production or movement of major commodities, prices often spike first before markets can assess how long the supply shock will last.…

Fertilizer producers Mosaic and Simplot say they support keeping countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate fertilizer in the five-year review now underway. If the domestic industry had said it…

The Iran war has upended the planting intentions of U.S. farmers, resulting in fewer acres of corn and the lowest quantity of spring wheat planted since 1970 as rising fertilizer…