The purpose of this article is to translate the required pace of D4 RIN generation into physical volumes of domestic production and imports needed to meet the final 2026 and 2027 RVOs under the RFS. On the domestic side, meeting the final RVOs requires FAME biodiesel to run essentially at its highest sustained pace on record and renewable diesel to run well beyond any pace it has ever achieved, with the combined sector operating at 90% of operable capacity in 2026 and 95% in 2027.

Farmers were surveyed in the fall of 2024 on their concerns of consolidation within the fertilizer, crop protection, seed, and machinery sectors. Results suggest that farmers are concerned that consolidation at the manufacturing and retail levels will lead to higher input prices and reduce the customer service received. Concerns didn’t vary significantly across the different input sectors but concerns were greater that consolidation will increase prices than reduce customer service.

As cash flows from the farm operation become tighter, it is necessary to find other funds to help pay for asset purchases or delay asset purchases, and to repay debt. Unless crop price prospects improve, it would be difficult for the case farm to purchase assets, such as machinery and equipment, later this year. Working capital will be drawn down to meet term debt obligations under one of the three crop price scenarios examined, even if the farm does not purchase machinery and equipment in 2026.

Results from the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey show that issues surrounding affordability, and in particular food prices, may play an important role in the upcoming midterm elections. Results underscore that both cost of living and the economy more broadly are top issues for respondents and that the majority of respondents believe politicians can help reduce food prices. As November inches closer, we expect grocery bills to become central to the midterm election discussions.

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