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Farm Bill What-If Tool
This program calculates Agricultural Risk Coverage for County Coverage (ARC-CO), Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments, and ARC at the Individual Level (ARC-IC). County yields and market year average (MYA) prices…
Crop Insurance Decision Tool
This program calculates premiums, evaluates insurance payments, and provides historical data useful when making crop insurance decisions for multiple crops. Estimates are for crops in midwest and southeast states. Learn…
Planting Decision Model
With this program, the user can: 1) estimate the costs of planting corn and soybeans by planting date, 2) estimate the net returns from replanting, 3) prevented planting payments, and…
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Latest farmdoc Daily Articles
Smaller Loans Drive Decline in Non-Real Estate Farm Lending at Commercial Banks in Q3 2026
Non-real estate farm loan volume at commercial banks fell 25.0% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2026. A sharp contraction in average loan sizes drove the decline, even as the total number of loan originations increased. Average maturities shortened across categories, most notably for farm machinery and equipment financing, while interest rates on these loans eased modestly from 2025 levels yet remained well above what they were in 2020.
The 45Z Biofuel Tax Credit, Part 4: Inside the Updated USDA Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator
USDA recently released an updated version of its Feedstock Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit (USDA, FD-CIC v.1.2; User Manual, September 4, 2026). The updated calculator changes the Carbon Intensity (CI) scoring in significant ways. It also includes more information for the user about the scoring process. This article reviews the CI for corn in Illinois counties, with explanations about how the changes in the calculator result in modified scores.
The 2026 ARC/PLC Decision: ARC-CO vs PLC
The commodity program decision deadline for program crops harvested in 2026 is December 11, 2026. Current projections and expectations for prices and yields suggest that ARC-CO would be expected to trigger larger payments than PLC on corn and soybean base acres in most counties. The comparison for wheat base acres is currently much closer and will depend on county yield expectations and the individual farm’s PLC yields.
US-Mexico Cattle Trade and Beef Markets
Mexico exported feeder cattle to the US until New World Screwworm caused officials to stop this flow in 2025. In this farmdoc daily article, we estimate the impacts on the US and Mexico going from baseline projections where live trade returns to pre-entry levels to an alternative case with less live trade. As expected, the shortfall in US supplies leads to higher feeder cattle, fed cattle, and beef prices, although US producer response moderates these impacts over time.
The US No Loss Crop Sector Safety Net
Consistent with “Crop Loss” headlines dating to 2023, combined loss at harvest totaled $28.1 billion for producing the US 2025 cost of production crops (barley, corn, oats, peanuts, rice, seed cotton, sorghum, soybeans, wheat). However, all but $3.7 billion of this loss was covered by the US crop safety net. Moreover, the nine crops collectively broke even over the 2023-2025 crop years as $62.5 billion in safety net payments offset similar market losses at harvest.
Conservation Policy: The Baseline Shuffle and Tradeoffs in the Bardo
October marks the beginning of the federal fiscal year, which is payment season for farm policy (USDA, October 7, 2026; Farm Policy News, October 19, 2026). Payments are made in…