We compare average yield and yield risk for high-productivity cover crop and non-cover crop fields in east-central Illinois enrolled in Precision Conservation Management (PCM). For corn, cover crops reduce average…

In today’s farmdoc daily article, we examine the USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report, which places the Sept. 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 74.3 million head, up 2.2% from last quarter and 0.26% from last year — an ever so slight surprise. Much of the surprise reflects market hogs, which the USDA pegs at 0.4% higher compared to trade expectations again ranging from unchanged to nearly 1.9% lower, as they agree on a roughly 1% smaller breeding herd.

In today’s farmdoc daily article, we examine the relationship between absorption capacity and farm characteristics. Absorption capacity was measured by asking survey respondents whether they had low per unit fixed costs, a diversified enterprise mix, and a strong balance sheet. Producers with lower per unit fixed costs and a strong balance sheet were more optimistic and were less likely to indicate that financial risk was the most threatening source of risk on their farms.

In today’s farmdoc daily article, we examine the fundamental problem for conservation policy — funding. Congress caps the funds available or the acres permitted for enrollment not based on demand for conservation programs, or the need for assistance by farmers. Rather these are arbitrary, political decisions by Congress in the Farm Bill. The consequences of this extend to lost opportunities at reducing soil erosion, degradation of water quality, and other natural resource concerns.

In today’s farmdoc daily article, we review the last 17 years of Illinois corn, soybean, and wheat prices to evaluate “new era” projections that farmdoc first made in September 2008. Our original projections of the average monthly prices for the three crops turned out to be remarkably accurate, with less than 2% error in each case. It is clear that a truly new era in nominal corn, soybeans, and wheat prices started in the Fall of 2006 and that this era has persisted to the present time.

In today’s farmdoc daily article, we examine how direct costs for corn production in Illinois have risen at an average annualized rate of 7% per year since 2000. Total direct costs — which include production inputs — are projected to reach record levels for 2023 and are expected to experience only modest declines for 2024. The increases in production costs in recent years combined with expectations for lower commodity prices have resulted in much lower return expectations for 2023 and 2024.