The U.S. commercial banking industry has experienced significant consolidation and structural changes over the past four decades. The number of FDIC-insured commercial banks has declined 72.19% since 1984, with mergers being the primary driver of this change. As the banking landscape evolves with changing consumer preferences, technological advancements, and regulatory developments, ongoing consolidation and restructuring are likely to persist.

Since the 1996 Farm Bill’s seminal policy change that gave farmers the freedom to decide which crops to plant or not plant, land in US farms has declined by 75 million acres or -8%. Most (88%) of the decline occurred in pastureland. It is thus incorrect to equate the loss of farmland to a loss of cropland. Cropland has declined by only -2% while pastureland has declined by -13%. The sizable decline in pastureland is consistent with the growth in confinement animal production.

We have again reached the point where cash renting farmland has negative returns. History would suggest that reductions in cash rents gradually occur with small adjustments over multiple years. Furthermore, downward adjustments in cash rents historically do not fully reflect downturns in farm returns. That situation likely will continue until a larger share of farm operations are forced to reduce cash rents because of the erosion of their financial positions.

Results from the most recent wave of the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey show that the average U.S. consumer is still feeling the effects of inflation. While the rate of inflation is slowing down, this does not mean prices experienced by households will be lower or that their perceptions of inflation are improving. Our results indicate that over the last two years, consumers remain quite pessimistic about inflation.

Once again, the Farm Bill finds itself in the legislative bardo: no path forward; going back is likely impossible and would be catastrophic. This state of things brings recognition that the traditional Farm Bill formula no longer works: a broad-based coalition to clear the difficult legislative process, backed by the potential of reversion to troubled farm policy in permanent law. And, as extension becomes increasingly convenient, more politically palpable, it will become the default.

Protectionist policies are once again threatening to reshape agricultural trade, as the U.S. administration escalated tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EV) in May 2024, echoing the actions of its predecessor.…