When war disrupts regions that are critical to the production or movement of major commodities, prices often spike first before markets can assess how long the supply shock will last.…

Political power will fix nothing of its own volition—it only operates in one direction. This means that fixing the federal crop insurance program likely has only two catalysts: either a collapse in which crop insurance can no longer defy reality and the fundamentals; or rival political powers achieve changes that improve the program’s integrity and bring it more into alignment with those fundamentals. This is the gamble designed into the program, a wager of about $15.5 billion per federal fiscal year.

Nitrogen fertilizer prices have increased substantially since Operation Epic Fury commenced. Higher fertilizer prices are likely to continue into the fall. This longer-run price increase could result in a larger impact on farmer costs and returns in 2027 than in 2026. At that point, decision-making for the 2027 crop will present challenges. Given that nitrogen fertilizers are not used intensively on soybeans, higher nitrogen prices could lead to a shift towards more soybean acres and fewer corn acres.

The early market response to the Hormuz disruption points to a concentrated rather than broad-based risk for U.S. agriculture. Energy markets reacted most sharply, but in fertilizer markets the strongest response has so far been concentrated in nitrogen products, especially urea, where prices rose by more than 28% within three weeks. Historical experience suggests the current effects may still be in an early phase. Fertilizer prices often continue to rise for several months after the initial disruption.

The Iran war has upended the planting intentions of U.S. farmers, resulting in fewer acres of corn and the lowest quantity of spring wheat planted since 1970 as rising fertilizer…

The Trump administration is preparing to expand the opportunity for sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline this summer by waiving the fuel from US volatility requirements, according to people familiar with…