Latest in Marketing & Outlook
Net Return to Storing US Corn and Soybeans Since 1973
Cash storage of corn and soybeans after June is generally not profitable as price declines on average and in a majority of years. Net return to cash and futures hedged storage of corn and soybeans that ends no later than June does not differ statistically from $0. On average, returns just cover the total cost of storage. The preceding finding nevertheless is consistent with building on-farm storage since on-farm storage provides other opportunities to improve farm profitability.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 3: the Value of Soybean Oil in the Soybean Crush
Since 2020, the renewable diesel boom has disrupted longstanding soybean pricing relationships. Soybean oil’s share of crush value jumped from 25-35% to 35-50% and values and crush margins became significantly more volatile. Historical models predicting soybean prices based on oil and meal values have broken down, making price forecasting more difficult.
Corn and Soybean Markets Shrug Off Bearish USDA Figures
Corn and soybean futures reversed initial negative reactions to September 12’s bearish USDA report, which lowered yields by less than expected and increased acreage estimates. Despite some fundamentally bearish data, prices ended up for the day. Markets appear skeptical of USDA yield estimates given recent dry weather, leading to an uneven price reaction to the most recent report.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 2: Squeezing More Oil from the Soybean Crush
The US soybean industry has responded to increased renewable diesel demand for soybean oil since 2020 by improving oil extraction efficiency in addition to just crushing more soybeans. Oil extraction rates jumped from 19.5% to 20.0%, contributing approximately 30% of above-trend soybean oil production growth during this period.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 1: the Long-Run Evolution of Oilseed Crushing
This article examines how U.S. soybean processing has evolved over 60 years, finding that oil extraction rates have increased from 17.9% to 19.8% while waste rates declined. There is suggestive evidence that the renewable diesel boom since 2020 may have accelerated this trend toward higher oil yields, allowing the industry to partially respond to increased biofuel demand.
Yes, There Are a Lot of Corn Acres: Evidence from FSA Acreage Data
USDA NASS recently increased 2025 corn planted acreage estimate to 97.3 million acres. Analysis of acreage enrolled in USDA FSA farm programs suggests this may be conservative, with FSA data implying even higher corn acreage around 98.1 million acres. Big corn acres will likely limit the potential for higher corn prices in the coming marketing year.
The Corn Market Works to Explain Itself
Despite USDA projections showing low corn ending stocks for 2025/26, new-crop December corn futures remain historically low. Markets are pricing in higher yields than USDA’s 181 bushel/acre estimate, though perhaps less than the 187 bushels per acre anticipated by some analysts, which would increase the stocks-to-use ratio and justify current price levels.
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of Revised RVOs on Projected D4 Biomass-Based Diesel RIN Generation for 2026-2027
The analysis presented in this article demonstrates that the EPA’s recent trilogy of RFS decisions will have a substantial impact on D4 RIN generation requirements for 2026-2027. We use a balance sheet approach to project a 22 percent increase in D4 RIN generation — from an average of 7.84 billion gallons over 2023-2025 to 10.56 billion gallons for 2026-2027 — a large increase by any reasonable standard.
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of Recent EPA Decisions on 2023-2027 RVOs for Biomass-Based Diesel
The EPA’s trilogy of recent RFS decisions represents one of the most significant regulatory developments for biomass-based diesel in the program’s history. The combined effect of higher RVOs, more restrictive small refinery exemptions, and mandatory reallocation creates substantially higher biomass-based diesel requirements for 2026 and 2027. Compared to 2023-2025, revised biomass-based diesel RVOs look to increase around 50 percent over 2026-2027.
2024 Ethanol Production Profits: Regression to the Mean?
The U.S. ethanol industry entered 2024 coming off one of it’s best three-year periods of profitability since 2007. However, the price of ethanol plunged late in 2023, leading to questions about the outlook for profits in the coming year. The purpose of this article is to estimate the profitability of U.S. ethanol production for the 2024 calendar year and assess whether the industry returned to the lofty profits of 2021 – 2023 or regressed towards the long-run mean level of profits.
Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry: 2024 Update
There is a clear upward trend over time in ethanol conversion rates at dry mill plants, which steadily increased from around 2.80 gallons per bushel of corn and sorghum in late 2014 to a peak near 3.00 in mid-2019 and again at the end of 2024. Just the opposite of ethanol conversion rates, there is a clear downward trend in dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) conversion rates over time. The picture that emerges is one of tradeoffs in operational efficiency of dry mill ethanol plants.
Biomass-Based Diesel Demand Destruction 2.0?
A farmdoc daily article last week (February 5, 2025) examined the possible impact of reductions in the conventional mandate under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on the demand for…
Ethanol Demand Destruction 2.0?
The first Trump Administration was supportive of the goal of setting the RFS conventional (ethanol) mandate near or below the E10 blend wall, mainly using small refinery exemptions (SREs). Since a second Trump Administration is now in place, it seems reasonable to assume there is the possibility of the conventional mandate again being written down. This raises the question of the likely impact of any future reductions in the conventional mandate on the demand for ethanol in the physical market.
Marketing & Outlook Data
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Soybeans
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Soybeans
US Average Farm Price Received Database
lllinois Average Farm Price Received Database
Agricultural Supply and Demand Database
Marketing & Outlook Reports
The Marketing and Outlook Research Reports (MORR) were published between 2008 and 2014. The reports are archived for interested researchers and public use.
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