Latest in Marketing & Outlook
War and Crop Production in Ukraine and Russia
President Trump is seeking to negotiate an end to the Ukrainian-Russian War. Should the fighting stop, land in the area of fighting will likely return to production, probably over several years. Because combined Ukrainian and Russian crop output and harvested land has declined only slightly during the war, downward pressure on crop prices is more likely than not as the land returns to production. Corn will likely be the most impacted individual crop since its output has declined the most during the war.
Corn Exports: Rocket Ship to Where?
U.S. corn export sales spiked in October, fueled by competitive prices and high demand, particularly from Mexico. This surge has lifted corn prices but aligns with USDA’s marketing year forecast of 2,325 million bushels. Future prices depend on global production, especially in South America, and potential U.S. trade policy shifts.
A Breath of Optimism for Corn in a Down Market
Recent corn price increases have come despite general pessimism about the overall state of the corn market. This article reviews data points supporting the recent rally, including grain stocks and export sales information, and considers what they mean for corn prices dynamics in the current marketing year.
Post-Harvest Grain Marketing in a Low-Price Environment
Over the summer of 2024, corn and soybean futures markets saw both major price declines and increases in calendar spreads. The article evaluates current futures spreads, comparing them to storage costs, and provides insights on when storing crops may be profitable. It emphasizes the importance of considering both physical storage costs and opportunity costs when making storage decisions.
Insights for Supply, Ending Stocks, and Prices from FSA Acreage Data
The USDA’s August Crop Production report updated corn and soybean acreage estimates using FSA data, lowering corn to 90.7 million acres and raising soybeans to 87.1 million acres. The report’s new estimates suggest higher soybean supply and ending stocks for 2024/25. Using the same FSA data, the article provides alternative estimates for final planted acreage, indicating slightly higher production levels and lower prices than current USDA forecasts.
The Range of New-Crop Price Expectations Is Narrowing Early
Current options-implied price distributions for 2024 new-crop corn and soybeans reveal that the range of expected price outcomes has narrowed more quickly in 2024 than in recent years. This market trend suggests a more bearish outlook compared to previous years, with implications for farmers’ marketing decisions as the likelihood of a significant growing-season rally in new-crop futures is shrinking.
Sizing Up Potential Downside Risk for New-Crop Corn and Soybean Prices
The latest USDA forecast calls for modest growth in domestic corn and soybean demand. One downside risk for price levels is that long-run optimism regarding US biofuels does not materialize in the short run. This could lead to excess processing capacity and oversupply of biofuels feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. A similar scenario occurred during the last biofuels boom between 2005 and 2010
2024 Ethanol Production Profits: Regression to the Mean?
The U.S. ethanol industry entered 2024 coming off one of it’s best three-year periods of profitability since 2007. However, the price of ethanol plunged late in 2023, leading to questions about the outlook for profits in the coming year. The purpose of this article is to estimate the profitability of U.S. ethanol production for the 2024 calendar year and assess whether the industry returned to the lofty profits of 2021 – 2023 or regressed towards the long-run mean level of profits.
Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry: 2024 Update
There is a clear upward trend over time in ethanol conversion rates at dry mill plants, which steadily increased from around 2.80 gallons per bushel of corn and sorghum in late 2014 to a peak near 3.00 in mid-2019 and again at the end of 2024. Just the opposite of ethanol conversion rates, there is a clear downward trend in dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) conversion rates over time. The picture that emerges is one of tradeoffs in operational efficiency of dry mill ethanol plants.
Biomass-Based Diesel Demand Destruction 2.0?
A farmdoc daily article last week (February 5, 2025) examined the possible impact of reductions in the conventional mandate under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on the demand for…
Ethanol Demand Destruction 2.0?
The first Trump Administration was supportive of the goal of setting the RFS conventional (ethanol) mandate near or below the E10 blend wall, mainly using small refinery exemptions (SREs). Since a second Trump Administration is now in place, it seems reasonable to assume there is the possibility of the conventional mandate again being written down. This raises the question of the likely impact of any future reductions in the conventional mandate on the demand for ethanol in the physical market.
The Transition to Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Understanding Demand Response to Jet Fuel Price Changes
Airlines’ fuel consumption may be relatively unresponsive to changes in price. This could be good for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers, but bad for meeting emissions reductions targets in the aviation sector. This suggests policies promoting SAF could effectively drive demand for feedstocks without significantly reducing overall aviation fuel consumption.
Secondary Impacts from Rising Used Cooking Oil Demand on Crop-Oil Prices
This farmdoc daily article focuses on the potential spillover effects from increasing used cooking oil biofuel demand on crop oil prices. We lay out the close price relationships between UCO and crop oil markets with a special emphasis on how these price relationships can differ by country and region, and then we conclude by highlighting the importance of better understanding these price dynamics to fully understand the greenhouse gas emission implications of biofuel policies.
Marketing & Outlook Data
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Soybeans
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Soybeans
US Average Farm Price Received Database
lllinois Average Farm Price Received Database
Agricultural Supply and Demand Database
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