Latest in Marketing & Outlook
Extending the Cattle Cycle with Still Lower Inventories
The USDA’s cattle inventory report places the total number of cattle and calves on January 1 at 86.7 million head, as the industry continues into a 7th consecutive year of contraction within the cattle cycle. The report indicates smaller beef cow and beef replacement heifer inventories and a smaller calf crop than anticipated. The report again confirms anticipated year over year drops across most inventory categories with fewer beef cows than any time since 1960 and the lowest total inventory since 1951.
US Grain Storage Capacity Growth Has Stopped
US grain storage capacity grew parallel to production from 2000-2019 but has stagnated since 2020. Combined with rising production, this led to record 80% on-farm capacity utilization in December 2025. The storage constraint raises concerns about supply chain bottlenecks and questions about future investment incentives.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 3: the Value of Soybean Oil in the Soybean Crush
Since 2020, the renewable diesel boom has disrupted longstanding soybean pricing relationships. Soybean oil’s share of crush value jumped from 25-35% to 35-50% and values and crush margins became significantly more volatile. Historical models predicting soybean prices based on oil and meal values have broken down, making price forecasting more difficult.
Corn and Soybean Markets Shrug Off Bearish USDA Figures
Corn and soybean futures reversed initial negative reactions to September 12’s bearish USDA report, which lowered yields by less than expected and increased acreage estimates. Despite some fundamentally bearish data, prices ended up for the day. Markets appear skeptical of USDA yield estimates given recent dry weather, leading to an uneven price reaction to the most recent report.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 2: Squeezing More Oil from the Soybean Crush
The US soybean industry has responded to increased renewable diesel demand for soybean oil since 2020 by improving oil extraction efficiency in addition to just crushing more soybeans. Oil extraction rates jumped from 19.5% to 20.0%, contributing approximately 30% of above-trend soybean oil production growth during this period.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 1: the Long-Run Evolution of Oilseed Crushing
This article examines how U.S. soybean processing has evolved over 60 years, finding that oil extraction rates have increased from 17.9% to 19.8% while waste rates declined. There is suggestive evidence that the renewable diesel boom since 2020 may have accelerated this trend toward higher oil yields, allowing the industry to partially respond to increased biofuel demand.
Yes, There Are a Lot of Corn Acres: Evidence from FSA Acreage Data
USDA NASS recently increased 2025 corn planted acreage estimate to 97.3 million acres. Analysis of acreage enrolled in USDA FSA farm programs suggests this may be conservative, with FSA data implying even higher corn acreage around 98.1 million acres. Big corn acres will likely limit the potential for higher corn prices in the coming marketing year.
Ethanol Production Profits in 2025
The U.S. ethanol industry delivered another strong year of profitability in 2025. Net returns for a representative Iowa plant averaged $0.21 per gallon, well above the long-run average of $0.13 per gallon since 2007. On an annual basis, nominal profits of $23.2 million marked the sixth consecutive year in positive territory and the sixth year since 2007 with profits exceeding $20 million. Given the headwinds facing the industry at the start of 2025, this is a genuinely impressive result.
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of No Half-RIN and Higher RVOs on Projected Biomass-Based Diesel Production and Feedstock Use for 2026-2027
A particularly controversial part of the EPA proposals for the RFS in 2026-27 is the limitation of imported biofuel and feedstock to 50% of the RINs generated by domestic biofuel and feedstock. There has been widespread reporting in recent weeks that the so-called “half RIN” proposal may be eliminated in the final rulemaking. This article projects biomass-based diesel production and feed-stock use for 2026-2027 without the half-RIN provision and higher biomass-based diesel RVOs.
Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry: 2025 Update
Recent trends in the operational efficiency of the U.S. ethanol industry are analyzed in this article. The picture that emerges from the analysis is one of tradeoffs in operational efficiency of dry mill ethanol plants, with more ethanol and corn oil production coming at the expense of less DDGS. The picture that emerges from the analysis is one of tradeoffs in operational efficiency of dry mill ethanol plants, with more ethanol and corn oil production coming at the expense of less DDGS.
Winter Oilseeds as a Response to Biofuels Feedstock Demand
Winter oilseeds like CoverCress and winter canola can supplement biofuels feedstock supply in the central Corn Belt by utilizing idle land between crop seasons. With higher oil content than soybeans, they increase per-acre oil output despite adoption challenges including timing constraints and limited infrastructure.
What Caused the U.S. Ethanol Boom?
The U.S. experienced a major ethanol boom between roughly 2004 and 2011, with production nearly quadrupling from 3.4 to 13.3 billion gallons. By far the most common explanation for the…
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