Latest in Marketing & Outlook
Net Return to Storing US Corn and Soybeans Since 1973
Cash storage of corn and soybeans after June is generally not profitable as price declines on average and in a majority of years. Net return to cash and futures hedged storage of corn and soybeans that ends no later than June does not differ statistically from $0. On average, returns just cover the total cost of storage. The preceding finding nevertheless is consistent with building on-farm storage since on-farm storage provides other opportunities to improve farm profitability.
Corn and Soybean Markets Shrug Off Bearish USDA Figures
Corn and soybean futures reversed initial negative reactions to September 12’s bearish USDA report, which lowered yields by less than expected and increased acreage estimates. Despite some fundamentally bearish data, prices ended up for the day. Markets appear skeptical of USDA yield estimates given recent dry weather, leading to an uneven price reaction to the most recent report.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 2: Squeezing More Oil from the Soybean Crush
The US soybean industry has responded to increased renewable diesel demand for soybean oil since 2020 by improving oil extraction efficiency in addition to just crushing more soybeans. Oil extraction rates jumped from 19.5% to 20.0%, contributing approximately 30% of above-trend soybean oil production growth during this period.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 1: the Long-Run Evolution of Oilseed Crushing
This article examines how U.S. soybean processing has evolved over 60 years, finding that oil extraction rates have increased from 17.9% to 19.8% while waste rates declined. There is suggestive evidence that the renewable diesel boom since 2020 may have accelerated this trend toward higher oil yields, allowing the industry to partially respond to increased biofuel demand.
Yes, There Are a Lot of Corn Acres: Evidence from FSA Acreage Data
USDA NASS recently increased 2025 corn planted acreage estimate to 97.3 million acres. Analysis of acreage enrolled in USDA FSA farm programs suggests this may be conservative, with FSA data implying even higher corn acreage around 98.1 million acres. Big corn acres will likely limit the potential for higher corn prices in the coming marketing year.
The Corn Market Works to Explain Itself
Despite USDA projections showing low corn ending stocks for 2025/26, new-crop December corn futures remain historically low. Markets are pricing in higher yields than USDA’s 181 bushel/acre estimate, though perhaps less than the 187 bushels per acre anticipated by some analysts, which would increase the stocks-to-use ratio and justify current price levels.
Fringe Acres and US Average Corn Yield
Does high corn acreage necessarily reduces average yields through the inclusion of fringe acres? Historical data show no significant correlation between planted acreage and yields, suggesting that large corn plantings predicted for 2025 can coexist with record yields, potentially maintaining bearish price pressure.
2024 Ethanol Production Profits: Regression to the Mean?
The U.S. ethanol industry entered 2024 coming off one of it’s best three-year periods of profitability since 2007. However, the price of ethanol plunged late in 2023, leading to questions about the outlook for profits in the coming year. The purpose of this article is to estimate the profitability of U.S. ethanol production for the 2024 calendar year and assess whether the industry returned to the lofty profits of 2021 – 2023 or regressed towards the long-run mean level of profits.
Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry: 2024 Update
There is a clear upward trend over time in ethanol conversion rates at dry mill plants, which steadily increased from around 2.80 gallons per bushel of corn and sorghum in late 2014 to a peak near 3.00 in mid-2019 and again at the end of 2024. Just the opposite of ethanol conversion rates, there is a clear downward trend in dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) conversion rates over time. The picture that emerges is one of tradeoffs in operational efficiency of dry mill ethanol plants.
Biomass-Based Diesel Demand Destruction 2.0?
A farmdoc daily article last week (February 5, 2025) examined the possible impact of reductions in the conventional mandate under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on the demand for…
Ethanol Demand Destruction 2.0?
The first Trump Administration was supportive of the goal of setting the RFS conventional (ethanol) mandate near or below the E10 blend wall, mainly using small refinery exemptions (SREs). Since a second Trump Administration is now in place, it seems reasonable to assume there is the possibility of the conventional mandate again being written down. This raises the question of the likely impact of any future reductions in the conventional mandate on the demand for ethanol in the physical market.
The Transition to Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Understanding Demand Response to Jet Fuel Price Changes
Airlines’ fuel consumption may be relatively unresponsive to changes in price. This could be good for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers, but bad for meeting emissions reductions targets in the aviation sector. This suggests policies promoting SAF could effectively drive demand for feedstocks without significantly reducing overall aviation fuel consumption.
Secondary Impacts from Rising Used Cooking Oil Demand on Crop-Oil Prices
This farmdoc daily article focuses on the potential spillover effects from increasing used cooking oil biofuel demand on crop oil prices. We lay out the close price relationships between UCO and crop oil markets with a special emphasis on how these price relationships can differ by country and region, and then we conclude by highlighting the importance of better understanding these price dynamics to fully understand the greenhouse gas emission implications of biofuel policies.
Marketing & Outlook Data
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Soybeans
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Soybeans
US Average Farm Price Received Database
lllinois Average Farm Price Received Database
Agricultural Supply and Demand Database
Marketing & Outlook Reports
The Marketing and Outlook Research Reports (MORR) were published between 2008 and 2014. The reports are archived for interested researchers and public use.
The Marketing and Outlook Briefs (MOBR) were published between 2007 and 2011. The articles are archived for interested researchers and public use.
The AgMAS Reports were published between 1997 and 2012. The reports are archived for interested researchers and public use.