Latest in Marketing & Outlook
Forecasting US Field Crop Sector Prosperity
This article presents a model to forecast net return at harvest for the nine field crops that USDA ERS computes an economic cost of production. The model includes last year’s percent net return at harvest, last year’s average return to storing US corn and soybeans, and the ratio of beginning world stocks to last year’s use of the nine crops. These variables forecast a percent net return at 2025 harvest of -20%. Forecasted total net loss for the nine crops combined is $36.4 billion.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 3: the Value of Soybean Oil in the Soybean Crush
Since 2020, the renewable diesel boom has disrupted longstanding soybean pricing relationships. Soybean oil’s share of crush value jumped from 25-35% to 35-50% and values and crush margins became significantly more volatile. Historical models predicting soybean prices based on oil and meal values have broken down, making price forecasting more difficult.
Corn and Soybean Markets Shrug Off Bearish USDA Figures
Corn and soybean futures reversed initial negative reactions to September 12’s bearish USDA report, which lowered yields by less than expected and increased acreage estimates. Despite some fundamentally bearish data, prices ended up for the day. Markets appear skeptical of USDA yield estimates given recent dry weather, leading to an uneven price reaction to the most recent report.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 2: Squeezing More Oil from the Soybean Crush
The US soybean industry has responded to increased renewable diesel demand for soybean oil since 2020 by improving oil extraction efficiency in addition to just crushing more soybeans. Oil extraction rates jumped from 19.5% to 20.0%, contributing approximately 30% of above-trend soybean oil production growth during this period.
The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 1: the Long-Run Evolution of Oilseed Crushing
This article examines how U.S. soybean processing has evolved over 60 years, finding that oil extraction rates have increased from 17.9% to 19.8% while waste rates declined. There is suggestive evidence that the renewable diesel boom since 2020 may have accelerated this trend toward higher oil yields, allowing the industry to partially respond to increased biofuel demand.
Yes, There Are a Lot of Corn Acres: Evidence from FSA Acreage Data
USDA NASS recently increased 2025 corn planted acreage estimate to 97.3 million acres. Analysis of acreage enrolled in USDA FSA farm programs suggests this may be conservative, with FSA data implying even higher corn acreage around 98.1 million acres. Big corn acres will likely limit the potential for higher corn prices in the coming marketing year.
The Corn Market Works to Explain Itself
Despite USDA projections showing low corn ending stocks for 2025/26, new-crop December corn futures remain historically low. Markets are pricing in higher yields than USDA’s 181 bushel/acre estimate, though perhaps less than the 187 bushels per acre anticipated by some analysts, which would increase the stocks-to-use ratio and justify current price levels.
Winter Oilseeds as a Response to Biofuels Feedstock Demand
Winter oilseeds like CoverCress and winter canola can supplement biofuels feedstock supply in the central Corn Belt by utilizing idle land between crop seasons. With higher oil content than soybeans, they increase per-acre oil output despite adoption challenges including timing constraints and limited infrastructure.
What Caused the U.S. Ethanol Boom?
The U.S. experienced a major ethanol boom between roughly 2004 and 2011, with production nearly quadrupling from 3.4 to 13.3 billion gallons. By far the most common explanation for the…
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: Revised RVOs Backload Projected Biomass-Based Diesel Production and Feedstock Use into 2027
The EPA’s recent Renewable Fuel Standard decisions will drive substantial increases in biomass-based diesel production and feedstock demand over 2026-2027, but the full impact is heavily backloaded to 2027. Total feedstock demand will increase 19% in 2026 and 48% in 2027 relative to 2023-2025. For domestic feedstock, the increases are even more dramatic: 63% in 2026 and 113% in 2027. This back-loading means 2027 is the critical year when production approaches full capacity utilization.
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of Revised RVOs on Projected Biomass-Based Diesel Production and Feedstock Use for 2026-2027
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a trilogy of decisions for the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in recent months that represents some of the most significant regulatory developments for biomass-based diesel in the program’s history. The combined effect of higher renewable volume obligations (RVOs), more restrictive small refinery exemptions, and mandatory reallocation creates substantially higher biomass-based diesel requirements for 2026-2027.
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of Revised RVOs on Projected D4 Biomass-Based Diesel RIN Generation for 2026-2027
The analysis presented in this article demonstrates that the EPA’s recent trilogy of RFS decisions will have a substantial impact on D4 RIN generation requirements for 2026-2027. We use a balance sheet approach to project a 22 percent increase in D4 RIN generation — from an average of 7.84 billion gallons over 2023-2025 to 10.56 billion gallons for 2026-2027 — a large increase by any reasonable standard.
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of Recent EPA Decisions on 2023-2027 RVOs for Biomass-Based Diesel
The EPA’s trilogy of recent RFS decisions represents one of the most significant regulatory developments for biomass-based diesel in the program’s history. The combined effect of higher RVOs, more restrictive small refinery exemptions, and mandatory reallocation creates substantially higher biomass-based diesel requirements for 2026 and 2027. Compared to 2023-2025, revised biomass-based diesel RVOs look to increase around 50 percent over 2026-2027.
Marketing & Outlook Data
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Soybeans
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Soybeans
US Average Farm Price Received Database
lllinois Average Farm Price Received Database
Agricultural Supply and Demand Database
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