Latest in Marketing & Outlook
Concentration of US Crops in Corn and Soybeans: Importance to Increasing US Production of Grains and Oilseeds
In today’s farmdoc daily article, we examine an apparent cap on US grain and oilseed acres, which have been range bound between 225 and 250 million acres since 1985. Some likely causes are restrictions that date to the 1985 farm bill on the conversion of highly erodible land into new cropland and conversion of wetlands, specifically hydric soils, into new cropland. Whatever its cause, the lack of new acres puts pressure on raising production by other means to meet increasing demand.
More Corn Acres and the Prospect of Large Stocks and Low Prices
In today’s farmdoc daily article, we examine how the US corn market is adjusting to the idea of a relatively large crop and big ending stocks in 2023/24. Corn futures price levels have settled in the $4.70 to $4.90 per bushel range. But with long-run projections for US corn stocks expecting 2-billion-plus bushel corn ending stocks into the foreseeable future, what is the long run ‘normal’ price level? Historical observation suggests it is lower than the current level of about $4.80 per bushel.
FSA Acreage Data Could Imply Higher Ending Stocks and Lower Prices
In today’s farmdoc daily article, we analyze Farm Service Agency data, which suggests that U.S. planted acreage could be 1.6% higher for corn and 0.6% higher for soybeans than indicated by the August WASDE report. Assuming the August WASDE report’s percentage of planted acres harvested is correct, the larger FSA-based planted acreage estimates also translate into the potential for more harvested acres and potentially lower prices.
Still Cutting the Cowherd
In today’s farmdoc daily article, we look at the USDA’s July cattle inventory report, which estimates the total inventory on July 1 at 95.9 million head, down 2.7% from a year ago. That marks the fifth consecutive year of decline. This report indicates the lowest mid-year cattle inventory since 2014, when producers started rebuilding following the drought in 2012. The beef cowherd, in comparison, is the smallest on record.
An Alternative Look at the 2022-2023 Corn and Soybean Markets: Red Flags Waving
Brazil is harvesting record corn and soybean crops, but a broader view reveals no major increase in South American production of corn and soybeans in the 2022/23 crop year. In fact, South American soybean production is notably below trend, partly because Argentina is having its worst harvest in more than two decades due to La Niña influence. Moreover, US domestic use and exports are struggling not just for corn and soybeans but for all large acreage US field crops. Lack of a large South American corn and soybean crop amid US crop sector demand struggles, suggests caution, maybe concern, is in order. Weather however has the final say, especially for an individual year.
Setting Restrained Expectations for New-Crop Corn and Soybean Prices
This article reviews the latest US corn and soybean production and use forecasts from USDA which include forecasts for the new-crop 2023/24 marketing year. These new-crop supply and demand projections…
A Solid Year for Ethanol Production Profits in 2022
The U.S. ethanol industry entered 2022 on a high, with weekly profits just missing a new all-time high in November 2021. Like all other facets of the commodity business, the…
Further Perspective on Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry
A recent farmdoc daily article (March 1, 2023) examined trends in the operational efficiency of the U.S. ethanol industry. The analysis in the article uncovered tradeoffs in operational efficiency over…
Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry: 2022 Update
The operational efficiency of any industry is key to long-term profitability, no less so for the U.S. ethanol industry. Fortunately, the USDA began publishing the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production…
2021 Was a Devastating Year for Biodiesel Production Profits
Despite the effects of the COVID pandemic and associated severe economic contraction, biodiesel plants basically broke even in 2020 (farmdoc daily, February 3, 2021). However, storm clouds were gathering as…
Ethanol Production Profits in 2021: What a Ride!
As the U.S. ethanol industry entered 2021, it faced the lingering effects of the COVID pandemic, struggling to maintain a small net profit earned in 2020, which was further threatened…
Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry: 2021 Update
The operational efficiency of any industry is key to long-term profitability, no less so for the U.S. ethanol industry. Surprisingly little information is available in the public domain on this…
Marketing & Outlook Data
Illinois Regional Basis Data – Soybeans
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Selected Market Data – Corn
Selected Market Data – Soybeans
US Average Farm Price Received Database
lllinois Average Farm Price Received Database
Agricultural Supply and Demand Database
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