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Marketing & Outlook

Latest in Marketing & Outlook

Comparing Livestock Productivity Since 1993

While not the most encompassing measure of crop productivity, yield, or production divided by land, is easy to compute.  Research confirms its value as farms with consistently higher yields are found to be more profitable over time.  In addition, since…

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Weekly Outlook

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Time to Price 2019 Soybeans?

Recent soybean price volatility highlights the uncertainty underpinning the soybean market. The sudden drop last Friday gives an indication of the fragility of the current soybean market, in particular. The following factors bear watching for possible pricing opportunities during the…

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Reconsidering USDA’s Corn Projections

The USDA’s WASDE report released on May 10 contained updated balance sheet projections for U.S. corn during the current marketing year and the 2019-20 marketing year. Corn price fell on a forecast of more abundant supplies in the next marketing…

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Soybean Acreage and Exports

Soybean prices continue to fall with indications that a resolution to the trade fight with China may be fading.  Concerns about the potential for more soybean acres and weak export prospects look to keep soybean prices under pressure. Early concerns…

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Corn Use for Ethanol Update

On May 1, the latest USDA Grain Crushing report will provide an estimate of corn used for ethanol production in March.  An expectation of continued weakness is in place for ethanol-based corn consumption that led to the USDA’s reduction by…

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Soybean Crush Holding Steady

Soybean crush levels came in higher than expected in March and maintain a steady pace thus far in 2019. Domestic use in both soybean meal and oil looks to support crush levels in 2019 despite stiff foreign competition in export…

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Corn Fundamentals Showing Weakness

Corn price held steady last week after the bearish WASDE report projected a 200 million bushel increase in 2018-19 ending stocks. At 2.035 billion bushels, the current ending stocks projection reflects weakening demand for corn that looks to continue through…

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Biofuels

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Implications of Recent Trends in U.S. Gasoline Consumption for Ethanol

The vast majority of domestic demand for ethanol in the U.S. is in the form of E10 gasoline blends. For example, implied domestic consumption of ethanol in 2018 was 14.4 billion gallons, of which all but a few hundred million…

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Revisiting the Value of Ethanol in E10 Gasoline Blends

The contentious debate about the impact of small refinery exemptions (SREs) on the physical demand for ethanol shows no signs of letting up. The ethanol industry continues to argue forcefully that there has been substantial destruction of demand in the…

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Biodiesel Production Profitability in 2018: Did Headwinds or Tailwinds Dominate?

The U.S. biodiesel industry faced strong headwinds in 2018 due to the demand destruction wreaked by small refinery exemptions (SREs). A recent farmdoc daily article estimated that SREs reduced biomass-based diesel (biodiesel and renewable diesel) demand by over 700 million…

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Small Refinery Exemptions and Biomass-Based Diesel Demand Destruction

The market impact of small refinery exemptions (SREs) granted under the RFS remains a highly contentious issue. From a regulatory standpoint, there is no doubt that SREs opened a backdoor mechanism for the EPA to reduce the statutorily-mandated RFS volumes.…

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2018 Year End RIN Update

Today’s article provides the annual summary update on Renewable Identification Number (RIN) generation in 2018 based on available data from EPA’s EMTS. Previous quarterly updates covered RIN generation through the first three quarters of 2018.

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How Tough of a Year was 2018 for Ethanol Production Profits?

The U.S. ethanol industry faced considerable headwinds in 2018, including the lowest prices over the last decade, policy setbacks in the implementation of the RFS, and political resistance to granting a year-round RVP waiver for E15. The impact of these…

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Marketing & Outlook Data

Illinois Regional Basis Data

Illinois Regional Basis Data – Soybeans

Historical soybean basis for seven regions in Illinois.  Basis and cash prices are reported weekly from 1975. File is in Microsoft Excel format.
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Illinois Regional Basis Data – Corn

Historical corn basis for seven regions in Illinois.  Basis and cash prices are reported weekly from 1975. File is in Microsoft Excel format.
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Selected Market Data

Selected Market Data – Soybeans

Current and historical values of factors important for developing supply, demand, and price expectations for corn and soybeans. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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Selected Market Data – Corn

Current and historical values of factors important for developing supply, demand, and price expectations for corn. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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Price Data

Agricultural Supply and Demand Database

Values for a number of important supply, demand, and price variables for crops and livestock since 1975. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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US Average Farm Price Received Database

Average farm price received data, for multiple commodities, in the US for the period 1960 to present. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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lllinois Average Farm Price Received Database

Average farm price received data, for multiple commodities, in the state of Illinois for the period 1960 to present. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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Marketing & Outlook Reports

The Marketing and Outlook Research Reports (MORR) were published between 2008 and 2014. The reports are archived for interested researchers and public use.

The Marketing and Outlook Briefs (MOBR) were published between 2007 and 2011. The articles are archived for interested researchers and public use.

The AgMAS Reports  were published between 1997 and 2012. The reports are archived for interested researchers and public use.

Marketing & Outlook Publication Archives

Weekly Outlook

Marketing & Outlook archives include Weekly Outlook articles published from 1999-2010. The current Weekly Outlook series is published on farmdoc daily.

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