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Latest in Marketing & Outlook

Continued Contraction Supports Record Prices

The USDA’s January 1 cattle inventory report places the total number of cattle and calves at 86.7 million head, near the upper range of pre-report expectations and down 0.6% from a year ago, as the industry continues into a sixth consecutive year of contraction within the cattle cycle. In general, the report confirms anticipated year over year drops across most inventory categories with fewer beef cows than any time since 1961 and the lowest total inventory since 1951.

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Ag Market Insights

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Corn Exports: Rocket Ship to Where?

U.S. corn export sales spiked in October, fueled by competitive prices and high demand, particularly from Mexico. This surge has lifted corn prices but aligns with USDA’s marketing year forecast of 2,325 million bushels. Future prices depend on global production, especially in South America, and potential U.S. trade policy shifts.

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A Breath of Optimism for Corn in a Down Market

Recent corn price increases have come despite general pessimism about the overall state of the corn market. This article reviews data points supporting the recent rally, including grain stocks and export sales information, and considers what they mean for corn prices dynamics in the current marketing year.

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Post-Harvest Grain Marketing in a Low-Price Environment

Over the summer of 2024, corn and soybean futures markets saw both major price declines and increases in calendar spreads. The article evaluates current futures spreads, comparing them to storage costs, and provides insights on when storing crops may be profitable. It emphasizes the importance of considering both physical storage costs and opportunity costs when making storage decisions.

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Insights for Supply, Ending Stocks, and Prices from FSA Acreage Data

The USDA’s August Crop Production report updated corn and soybean acreage estimates using FSA data, lowering corn to 90.7 million acres and raising soybeans to 87.1 million acres. The report’s new estimates suggest higher soybean supply and ending stocks for 2024/25. Using the same FSA data, the article provides alternative estimates for final planted acreage, indicating slightly higher production levels and lower prices than current USDA forecasts.

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The Range of New-Crop Price Expectations Is Narrowing Early

Current options-implied price distributions for 2024 new-crop corn and soybeans reveal that the range of expected price outcomes has narrowed more quickly in 2024 than in recent years. This market trend suggests a more bearish outlook compared to previous years, with implications for farmers’ marketing decisions as the likelihood of a significant growing-season rally in new-crop futures is shrinking.

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Sizing Up Potential Downside Risk for New-Crop Corn and Soybean Prices

The latest USDA forecast calls for modest growth in domestic corn and soybean demand. One downside risk for price levels is that long-run optimism regarding US biofuels does not materialize in the short run. This could lead to excess processing capacity and oversupply of biofuels feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. A similar scenario occurred during the last biofuels boom between 2005 and 2010

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Biofuels

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Marketing & Outlook Data

Illinois Regional Basis Data

Illinois Regional Basis Data – Soybeans

Historical soybean basis for seven regions in Illinois.  Basis and cash prices are reported weekly from 1975. File is in Microsoft Excel format.
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Illinois Regional Basis Data – Corn

Historical corn basis for seven regions in Illinois.  Basis and cash prices are reported weekly from 1975. File is in Microsoft Excel format.
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Selected Market Data

Selected Market Data – Corn

Current and historical values of factors important for developing supply, demand, and price expectations for corn. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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Selected Market Data – Soybeans

Current and historical values of factors important for developing supply, demand, and price expectations for corn and soybeans. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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Price Data

US Average Farm Price Received Database

Average farm price received data, for multiple commodities, in the US for the period 1960 to present. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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lllinois Average Farm Price Received Database

Average farm price received data, for multiple commodities, in the state of Illinois for the period 1960 to present. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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Agricultural Supply and Demand Database

Values for a number of important supply, demand, and price variables for crops and livestock since 1975. File is Microsoft Excel format.
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Marketing & Outlook Reports

The Marketing and Outlook Research Reports (MORR) were published between 2008 and 2014. The reports are archived for interested researchers and public use.

The Marketing and Outlook Briefs (MOBR) were published between 2007 and 2011. The articles are archived for interested researchers and public use.

The AgMAS Reports  were published between 1997 and 2012. The reports are archived for interested researchers and public use.

Marketing & Outlook Publication Archives

Weekly Outlook

Marketing & Outlook archives include Weekly Outlook articles published from 1999-2010. The current Weekly Outlook series is published on farmdoc daily.

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