AgMAS Reports

The AgMAS Reports  were published between 1997 and 2012. The reports are archived for interested researchers and public use.

2012 • 2009 • 2006 • 2005 • 2004 • 2003 • 2002 • 2001 • 2000 • 1999 • 1998 • 1997

20122009200620052004
  • October 12, 2004 - The Profitability of Technical Analysis: A Review
    The purpose of this report is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. To achieve this purpose, the report comprehensively reviews survey, theoretical and empirical studies regarding technical trading strategies. We begin by overviewing survey studies that have directly investigated market participants' experience and views on technical analysis. The survey literature indicates that technical analysis has been widely used by market participants in futures markets and...
  • July 19, 2004 - Crop Farmers’ Use of Market Advisory Services
    This study sought to examine the nature of farmers' use of market advisory services based on the results of a survey of US crop producers. The survey revealed that market advisory service users tend to be significantly more risk seeking than non-users. Survey results indicated a large range in patterns of use of advisory services. Most farmers use advisory services to the greatest extent for marketing information, market analysis, and to keep up with markets. General guidelines (market...
  • April 23, 2004 - Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn in 2001
    This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2001 corn crop. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the...
  • April 23, 2004 - Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans in 2001
    This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2001 soybean crop. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during...
2003
  • October 23, 2003 - Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: An Overview of Methods, Performance and Market Impacts
    The purpose of this report is to improve understanding of USDA crop forecasting methods, performance and market impact. A review of USDA?s forecasting procedures and methodology confirms the objectivity and consistency of the forecasting process over time. No changes in methodology occurred in 2003. Month-to-month changes in corn and soybean production forecasts from 1970 through 2002 indicate little difference in magnitude and direction of monthly changes over time. USDA production forecast...
  • July 2, 2003 - The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2001: A Non-Technical Summary
    The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but they do consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans tend to beat both market and farmer benchmarks. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs only marginally beat market benchmarks, but consistently beat the...
  • July 2, 2003 - The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2001
    The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. The results for 1995-2000 were released in earlier AgMAS research reports, while results for the 2001 crop year are new. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict ?real-world?...
  • June 30, 2003 - Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans Over 1995-2000
    This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program?s set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was...
  • June 26, 2003 - Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn Over 1995-2000
    This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program?s set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was...
  • April 2, 2003 - Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification is Enough?
    Agricultural market advisory services offer specific advice to farmers on how to market their commodities. Farmers can subscribe to one or more of these services and follow their advice as a way of managing price risk. According to portfolio theory, a combination of these services may have risk/return benefits compared to individual services. This...
  • January 29, 2003 - New Generation Grain Marketing Contracts
    The purpose of this research report is to summarize the features of several types of ?new generation? grain marketing contracts. Over the last several years, new types of grain marketing contracts have been developed by the grain industry in an attempt to improve the results of the marketing process for farmers. These products use automated pricing rules, discretionary marketing on the part of a professional advisor, options strategies, or some combination of all three; their goal is to...
2002
  • April 23, 2002 - Tracking the Performance of Marketing Professionals: 1995-2000 Results for Corn and Soybeans
    The purpose of this research bulletin is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. The pricing performance results over 1995-2000 suggest several key findings. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but they do consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans tend to beat both market and farmer benchmarks. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory...
  • April 23, 2002 - The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services In Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2000
    The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict "real-world" marketing conditions. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through...
2001
  • April 5, 2001 - 1999 Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services for Wheat
    The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in the 1999 crop year for wheat. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for wheat crop harvested in 1999. The average net advisory price across all 23 wheat programs in 1999 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.04 below the market benchmark price. The range of net advisory prices is substantial, with a minimum of $2.18 per bushel and a maximum of...
  • March 1, 2001 - Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Evidence from the Wheat Market Over 1995-1998
    The purpose of this report is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services in wheat: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on wheat net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years. Not only do market advisory programs in wheat...
  • March 1, 2001 - The Role of Market Advisory Services in Crop Marketing and Risk Management: A Preliminary Report of Survey Results
    The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary summary of the results of a survey designed to help answer the questions about subscriber use of market advisory services. Importantly, this research is a cooperative partnership between the University of Illinois and the Data Transmission Network. The survey participants are commercial producers of major grain, oilseed and fiber crops, representing important agricultural areas of the US. The survey has three broad objectives, including...
2000
  • December 11, 2000 - 1999 Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services for Corn and Soybeans
    The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in the 1999 crop year for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1999. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs in 1999 is $2.02 per bushel, three cents below the market benchmark price. The range of net advisory prices for corn is substantial, with a minimum of...
  • November 17, 2000 - Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Evidence from the Corn and Soybean Markets Over 1995-1998
    The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years. Performance test results suggest that, on average,...
  • June 12, 2000 - The 1995 Through 1998 Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services for Wheat
    The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance from 1995 through 1998 for wheat. The average net advisory price across all 24 wheat programs in 1995 is $3.79 per bushel, $0.18 above the market benchmark price. The range in 1995 is $3.01 to $4.71 per bushel. The average net advisory service price for 23 wheat programs in 1996 is $3.82 per bushel, $0.13 below the market benchmark. The range in 1996 is $2.74 to $4.94 per bushel. The...
  • February 4, 2000 - 1998 Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services for Corn and Soybeans
    The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1998 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1998. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.17 per bushel - seven cents below the market benchmark price. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of $1.93 per bushel to a maximum of $2.51...
1999
  • October 1, 1999 - Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Evidence from the Corn and Soybean Markets Over 1995-1997
    The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that, on average,...
  • October 1, 1999 - Surveying Farmers: A Research Note
    Mail surveys are a very popular instrument for researchers as well as government agencies and commercial firms to obtain information about farmers. A large percentage of farmers do not respond to these mail surveys. To gain insight into why farmers do not respond and their preferences regarding mail surveys, farmers who did not respond to a mail survey were interviewed. From our field study it appears that a large proportion does not even read the questionnaire. Furthermore, the period in which...
  • August 1, 1999 - The Marketing Style of Advisory Services for Corn and Soybeans in 1995
    The 1995 marketing styles for the 25 market advisory service programs included in the AgMAS Project were developed in two steps. The first step was the construction of a detailed "menu" of the tools and strategies used by each of the advisory programs in marketing corn and soybeans. The menu describes the type of pricing tool, frequency of transactions, and magnitude of transactions. The second step was the development of a daily index of the net amount sold by each market advisory program. To...
  • February 4, 1999 - 1997 Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services for Corn and Soybeans
    The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1997 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1997. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.32 per bushel. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of $2.00 per bushel to a maximum of $2.74 per bushel. The average net advisory price...
1998
  • December 15, 1998 - Development of a Market Benchmark Price for AgMAS Performance Evaluations
    The purpose of this research report is to identify the appropriate market benchmark price to use to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services that are included in the annual AgMAS pricing performance evaluations. Five desirable properties of market benchmark prices are identified. Three potential specifications of the market benchmark price are considered: the average price received by Illinois farmers, the harvest cash price, and the average cash price over a two-year crop...
  • January 14, 1998 - 1996 Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services for Corn and Soybeans
    The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1996 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1996. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs is $2.63 per bushel. The range of net advisory prices for corn is quite large, with a minimum of $2.08 per bushel and a maximum of $3.12 per bushel. The average net...
1997
  • November 7, 1997 - 1995 Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services for Corn and Soybeans
    The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1995 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1995. The average net advisory price across all 25 corn programs is $3.04 per bushel. The range of net advisory prices for corn is quite large, with a minimum of $2.34 per bushel and a maximum of $3.81 per bushel. The average net...
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