The TIAA Center for Farmland Research provides white papers and briefs on Center related publications and outreach activities highlighting topics of interest to many stakeholders, from farmers to policy makers to investors. In addition to our research program and materials available here, the Center provides financial and other support to farmdoc and a range of economic tools.
White Papers
Illinois Farmland Turnover Analysis (2026)
This report documents Illinois farmland transactional activity through time and across location from 2003 through 2025. Using arm’s-length sales identified from Illinois property transfer declarations (PTAX-203) along with USDA Census data on farmland acreage, the analysis finds that farmland turnover is structurally low, averaging 1.56% annually, with an implied average holding period of approximately 64 years. The findings highlight geographic difference, seasonal transaction patterns in the first and fourth quarters, and declining parcel sizes alongside rapid value appreciation. The results emphasize the persistently thin nature of Illinois farmland markets and the limited annual open-market supply.
Performance of Farmland Investment (2025)
This study evaluates the performance of farmland as an investment asset using institutional benchmarks, national data systems, and historical market evidence. Farmland delivers strong long-run returns with notably low volatility, supported by a return structure that blends stable rental income with long-term capital appreciation. Its weak correlation with equity markets and positive relationship with inflation enhance its role as both a diversifying asset and an inflation hedge. Portfolio analysis shows that farmland consistently improves risk-adjusted performance and remains comparatively stable during major financial disruptions. Even as farmland values adjust to changes in interest rates, income outlooks, and credit conditions, the sector’s modest leverage and stable production cycle help absorb short-term market pressures. Overall, the findings highlight farmland as a resilient, inflation-responsive, and efficient component of long-horizon investment portfolios.
The Relationship Between Inflation and Farmland Returns (2025)
This study examines the relationship between inflation and U.S. farmland investment returns amid evolving monetary policy, inflation regimes, and market volatility. Using data from 1970–2024 across 32 major agricultural states and the NCREIF Farmland Index, the analysis compares farmland performance with inflation and other major asset classes over varying holding periods. Findings confirm that farmland returns are positively correlated with inflation and largely uncorrelated or negatively correlated with equities, reinforcing its value as a diversification asset. Although capitalization rates and income yields have declined, farmland has consistently delivered positive real returns across a wide range of economic environments. The correlation between farmland returns and inflation strengthens over longer holding periods, demonstrating its durable inflation-hedging capacity. Despite structural shifts in Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic conditions, farmland continues to exhibit low volatility, stable appreciation-driven returns, and resilience as a long-term store of value.
Most long-term leases held by foreign persons are for wind and solar projects, covering 6.3 million acres, or about 0.7 percent of U.S. land in farms. In most counties the share is under 1 percent, and nearly all of these acres are associated with investors from Canada and Western Europe. Because the landowner retains title and AFIDA reports acreage as a whole parcel, lease acres are best viewed separately from ownership when assessing foreign holdings of U.S. agricultural land.
The variable lease will result in larger rents during higher crop revenue periods and lower rents during lower crop revenue periods, providing some natural risk protection for the farmer tenant while also providing landowners with upside rent potential under better revenue conditions. However, the high production costs that have persisted since 2023 have resulted in some negative average returns even with the variable lease design.
Using US land in Farms as the reference, foreign ownership interests amount to 0.67% of the total, and the remaining 99.33% is US owned. Forestland accounts for 88.5% while cropland, pasture, and other agricultural land account for 11.5%. The countries with the largest ownership positions in U.S. agricultural land are Canada and several Western European nations with primary ownership in forestland. Canada is the largest at 2.28 million acres (38%).