Farm Bill Online and Spreadsheet Tools
Gardner Program Payment Calculator (ARC/PLC)
The Gardner Payment Calculator provides estimates of expected payments and likelihood of payments for ARC-CO and PLC. Payment estimates are provided for the program years from 2019 to 2023. Users can select the state, county, and crop combination that they wish to consider.
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2025 Farm Bill What if Tool
This program calculates Agricultural Risk Coverage for County Coverage (ARC-CO), Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments, and ARC at the Individual Level (ARC-IC). County yields and market year average (MYA) prices are brought in for a user-specified state-county-crop combination. Users then can change county yields and prices to see ARC-CO and PLC payments under those yields and prices.
Impacts of Premium Support Increase of Basic and Optional Units in House Reconciliation Bill
The House Reconciliation Bill includes provisions that would increase premium support rates on basic and optional units. Given that farmers do not change their policies, units, or coverage levels, we…
Spending Impacts of PLC and ARC-CO in House Agriculture Reconciliation Bill
The House Reconciliation Bill includes changes to statutory reference prices used to trigger payments from the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program, as well as changes to Agricultural Risk Coverage (see…
Reviewing the House Agriculture Committee’s Reconciliation Bill
Budget reconciliation has begun in the House of Representatives, with multiple committees releasing text and holding business meetings to mark-up the legislation. As part of that process the House Agriculture…
Additional Thoughts on 2025 Crop Insurance and Farm Program Decisions
The deadline to finalize 2025 crop insurance decisions is now less than a week away (March 17th). The harvest futures contracts for corn (December) and soybeans (November) have moved below…
The Arithmetic of Commodity Title Programs
Increasing per-acre corn payments for commodity title programs will have a much more significant effect on total Federal outlays than other crops because corn has many more base acres. Seed cotton, rice, and peanuts have lower base acres; hence, spending increases tend to have much less impact on total Federal outlays. As a result, seed cotton, rice, and peanuts often have larger per-acre increases in spending than does corn. This process is illustrated with the House Proposal for the Farm Bill.
Potential Federal Policy Responses to Negative Grain Farm Incomes
In 2024, grain farm incomes will be low and, in many cases, negative. In recent weeks, hurricanes Helene and Milton have also caused extensive damage to many farmers caught in their paths. Congress remains in recess through election day, Nov. 5, 2024, but the push for federal relief is growing. Federal policy responses in the lame duck are likely and include: 1) extending the current or passing a new farm bill and 2) passing an ad hoc, supplemental, or emergency disaster assistance package.
2024 Low Returns, Prices, and the Federal Safety Net
A steep decline in prices across years has resulted in low to negative average returns to Midwest farms in 2023 and projected for 2024. Crop insurance programs are not designed to cover the risk of multi-year price declines and current commodity title programs are also expected to provide little relief for these low prices. Modifying commodity title programs to make them more market-responsive would aid in providing relief to farmers.
Reviewing the Congressional Budget Office Score of the House Farm Bill
CBO cost estimates are typically critical pieces of Farm Bill reauthorization, while also providing useful transparency about complex legislation. Such is the case with CBO’s score of the Farm Bill reported by the House Agriculture Committee, exposing the likely increases in farm program payments juxtaposed against reductions in food assistance for low-income households. Either alone may present near-insurmountable barriers to Farm Bill reauthorization but combined sound the death knell for it.
Cotton STAX and Modified Supplemental Coverage Option: Concerns with Moving Crop Insurance from Risk Management to Income Support
The Farm Bill version reported by the House Agricultural Committee would modify Supple-mental Coverage Option (SCO), a crop insurance policy that provides county-level coverage. Be-cause the modifications proposed for SCO would make it very similar to the STAX insurance pro-gram for cotton, we evaluate the historical performance of STAX to provide indications of how modified SCO could operate.
Farm Bill Proposals to Enhance Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO)
Both the House and Senate versions of the farm bill include proposals to modify Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) insurance. SCO crop insurance provides county-level coverage from the selected coverage level on a farm-level crop insurance product up to a fixed maximum coverage level based on county-level results. This article examines the impacts of the SCO version proposed by the House for corn in McLean County, Illinois. Overall, increasing SCO subsidy levels seems questionable as a policy objective. At best, farmers risk management is improved marginally at high costs to the Federal government. A better focus would be on enhancing the protection of the underlying farm-level product.
Spending Impacts of House Proposal for Commodity Title Changes
The House Proposal for the Commodity Title would significantly increase commodity title spending. Farmers with base acres of the Southern crops (peanuts, rice, and cotton) would have much higher increases in payments than farmers with base acres of those program crops grown in most of the country. The House Proposal would increase payments more for southern and Delta states than for other regions.
Statutory Reference Prices and the Next Farm Bill
Both the House and Senate Ag Committees are considering increases to the statutory reference prices for some or all program crops. Increasing statutory reference prices would result in the largest increase in spending of the changes being discussed for the commodity title. Moreover, raising statutory reference prices will have disproportionate impacts across crops, increasing commodity program spending proportionally more for peanuts, rice, and seed cotton than for corn, soybeans, and wheat.