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Early Prospects for 2009 Soybean Yields in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

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The USDA’s first forecast of the potential size of the 2009 U.S. soybean crop was released on May 12 (USDA/WASDE, 2009). That forecast was based on: 1) acreage expected to be harvested for grain, which is a function of planting intentions revealed in the March 2009 Prospective Plantings report and the 5-year average planted to harvested acreage ratios by state, and 2) projected yield, which USDA generated based on a 1987-2007 regional trend analysis. The projected yield was 42.6 bushels per acre and the production forecast was 3.195 billion bushels. That forecast was unchanged in the June report.

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