The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has a number of agencies that are involved in collecting, analyzing, forecasting, and disseminating information about the production and consumption of the corn and soybean crops. Market participants rely heavily on estimates and forecasts provided by these agencies in order to form price expectations and to make business decisions. In spite of on-going efforts to maintain the quality of information provided and the transparency of the methodology used, misunderstanding, concerns, or complaints about the information provided periodically arise. More recently (since 2006) those concerns have centered on the accuracy of the quarterly estimates of corn inventories and to a lesser extent on the methodology and accuracy of early season yield forecasts. It is in that context that this review of USDA forecasts and estimates for corn and soybeans was conducted.
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