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Forming Expectations About 2008 U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields—Application of Crop Weather Models that Incorporate Planting Progress

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In the current environment of strong domestic and export demand, relatively low world stocks, and historically high prices, the expected size of the 2008 U.S. corn and soybean crops takes on added significance. The market’s expectation about the prospective size of the crops will have a major influence on prices for the next three months. Production will obviously be determined by the magnitude of planted acreage, the resulting acreage harvested,
and by average yield. Typically, expectations about planted and harvested acreage are solidified with the USDA’s June Acreage report. That is not he case this year, however, due to widespread flooding and replanting in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin. A special USDA survey in those areas in July will provide a clearer picture of planted and harvested acreage in the USDA’s August Crop Production report.

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