Management

In 2024, grain farm incomes will be low and, in many cases, negative. In recent weeks, hurricanes Helene and Milton have also caused extensive damage to many farmers caught in their paths. Congress remains in recess through election day, Nov. 5, 2024, but the push for federal relief is growing. Federal policy responses in the lame duck are likely and include: 1) extending the current or passing a new farm bill and 2) passing an ad hoc, supplemental, or emergency disaster assistance package.

A steep decline in prices across years has resulted in low to negative average returns to Midwest farms in 2023 and projected for 2024. Crop insurance programs are not designed to cover the risk of multi-year price declines and current commodity title programs are also expected to provide little relief for these low prices. Modifying commodity title programs to make them more market-responsive would aid in providing relief to farmers.

CBO cost estimates are typically critical pieces of Farm Bill reauthorization, while also providing useful transparency about complex legislation. Such is the case with CBO’s score of the Farm Bill reported by the House Agriculture Committee, exposing the likely increases in farm program payments juxtaposed against reductions in food assistance for low-income households. Either alone may present near-insurmountable barriers to Farm Bill reauthorization but combined sound the death knell for it.

The Farm Bill version reported by the House Agricultural Committee would modify Supple-mental Coverage Option (SCO), a crop insurance policy that provides county-level coverage. Be-cause the modifications proposed for SCO would make it very similar to the STAX insurance pro-gram for cotton, we evaluate the historical performance of STAX to provide indications of how modified SCO could operate.

Both the House and Senate versions of the farm bill include proposals to modify Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) insurance. SCO crop insurance provides county-level coverage from the selected coverage level on a farm-level crop insurance product up to a fixed maximum coverage level based on county-level results. This article examines the impacts of the SCO version proposed by the House for corn in McLean County, Illinois. Overall, increasing SCO subsidy levels seems questionable as a policy objective. At best, farmers risk management is improved marginally at high costs to the Federal government. A better focus would be on enhancing the protection of the underlying farm-level product.

The House Proposal for the Commodity Title would significantly increase commodity title spending. Farmers with base acres of the Southern crops (peanuts, rice, and cotton) would have much higher increases in payments than farmers with base acres of those program crops grown in most of the country. The House Proposal would increase payments more for southern and Delta states than for other regions.

Both the House and Senate Ag Committees are considering increases to the statutory reference prices for some or all program crops. Increasing statutory reference prices would result in the largest increase in spending of the changes being discussed for the commodity title. Moreover, raising statutory reference prices will have disproportionate impacts across crops, increasing commodity program spending proportionally more for peanuts, rice, and seed cotton than for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Voluntary base acre updates will not reduce discrepancies between base acres from current planting. Solving under-based issues with a voluntary update can occur, but Federal spending will increase. Mandatory updates can more effectively reduce differences between base and planted acres. Moreover, adding base acres with a mandatory update is possible at lower costs than with a voluntary update. However, mandatory updates will cause some farms and regions to lose commodity title support relative to current levels.

In today’s farmdoc daily article, we look at the intersection of base acres and reference prices. A mandatory base acre update that better aligns program payments with planted acres will impact states and crops to different degrees depending on where Congress established reference prices relative to market prices. It is at this intersection that the political collisions within the farm coalition occur as farmers, commodity factions, and production regions are pitted against each other.