WILLAg Radio Week 25 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending June 19, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

The weekly market data shows a period of technical stabilization and cautious retracement across major agricultural commodities following a prolonged multi-week downturn. Analysts Susan Stroud, Curt Kimmel, and Greg Johnson highlighted that corn and soybean markets attempted to form a baseline floor after absorbing a sharp 70-cent break in corn and a $1.20 drop in soybeans. The primary bearish driver across the complex was the announcement of a geopolitical memorandum of understanding (MOU) and tentative settlement regarding the war in Iran. This development extracted significant war risk premiums from the energy sector, causing crude oil prices to break sharply, which subsequently dragged down soybean oil and pressured corn-based ethanol values.

Conversely, the dominant supportive driver for the grain markets was consistent speculation—and eventual confirmation—of renewed Chinese buying interest. Flash sales of U.S. soybeans to China and unknown destinations provided a mid-week lift, pulling contracts off their session lows, though the long-term execution of China’s broader 25-million-metric-ton purchasing commitment remains constrained by unresolved tariff structures. Market movements were further influenced by strong domestic soybean crush margins, which provided a resilient structural demand floor. However, significant upside rallies were capped by improving domestic crop progress reports—showing national good-to-excellent ratings rising to 68% for corn and 66% for soybeans—leaving producers hesitant to sell at depressed board prices and prompting traders to neutralize positions ahead of the long Juneteenth holiday weekend.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

The progression of weather forecasts throughout the week tracked highly active, convective setups characterized by strong jet stream energy and deep moisture profiles. Meteorologists Don Day, Mark Russo, Mike Tannura, and Drew Lerner documented the collision of potent Canadian cold fronts with high-humidity tropical air moving northward from the Gulf Coast. This dynamic system triggered severe weather outbreaks across the central United States, delivering high winds, damaging hail, localized tornadoes, and widespread rainfall totals of one to three inches, with severe pockets in central and northern Illinois registering up to five to seven inches. While the intense precipitation caused localized flooding, drowned-out lowlands, and temporary crop yellowing due to excessive wetness, it successfully eliminated the lingering drought conditions that had plagued the Plains and Western Corn Belt, returning regional soil moisture to near-ideal levels. Domestically, the jet stream was projected to remain anchored over the midsection of the country, indicating a cooler and wetter-than-average conclusion to June.

On the international stage, weather patterns presented severe environmental stress in contrasting global growing regions. Western Europe, and France in particular, experienced a prolonged, intensifying heatwave coupled with extreme seasonal dryness; France received less than half of its normal rainfall since mid-March, severely threatening spring crops and parching soil profiles. In Asia, meteorologists tracked a strengthening El Niño pattern forecast to bring severe late-year dryness to major palm oil and rice-producing countries in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Concurrently, this El Niño system was driving excessive, crop-damaging rainfall across the rice and sugarcane belts of southern China, contrasting with highly favorable, well-watered growing conditions for corn and soybeans in northeastern China.

Commodity Week Panel Analysis

Panelists Jim McCormick, Garrett Toay, and Mike Zuzolo debated the structural shifting of international demand, noting that deep financial losses and negative crush margins within China indicate their recent soybean purchases may be politically or ceremonially driven rather than backed by actual livestock feed expansion. The panel reviewed the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report, which indicated a 102% year-over-year inventory on feed, though historically low marketings and record-heavy cattle weights continue to complicate forward beef production models. In fields across the Midwest, a stark developmental bifurcation was noted between early-planted corn approaching tassel in parts of central Kansas and late-planted crops struggling out of wet mud. Finally, the panel highlighted that the Federal Reserve’s new leadership under Chairman Warsh will enforce a strictly data-driven policy approach; by reducing speculative central bank commentary, the Fed aims to increase near-term volatility while checking the influence of purely algorithmic commodity trading.

Week’s News and Other Items

U.S. and Brazilian Corn Production Costs Compared: An economic analysis by Joana Colussi demonstrated that while both U.S. and Brazilian corn farmers suffered financial losses during the 2023 and 2024 seasons, they operated under entirely different cost pressures. Deficits for typical Iowa farms were driven by sticky, slow-to-adjust overhead costs such as cash rents and appreciating land values. In contrast, Brazilian operations in regions like Mato Grosso were highly sensitive to volatile direct operating inputs, specifically imported nitrogen fertilizer. Brazil continues to bolster its competitive export window by utilizing its safrinha second-crop system to plant corn immediately after soybeans, thereby spreading fixed land and machinery costs across two crops in a single year, though the U.S. retains a twofold advantage in average crop yields.

Ag Energies and Fertilizer Dynamics: Dave Chatterton reported that the tentative Iranian settlement triggered immediate downward movement in the cash fertilizer and crude oil markets. While crude oil quickly retraced close to its pre-war levels, refined products like diesel fuel and wholesale gasoline retained a longer price tail. Diesel fuel remained constrained by high export volumes and tight domestic inventories, and experts predicted a full return to normalized fuel flows and pre-war pricing benchmarks would take until at least late August.

RMA 2025 Yields Trigger Insurance Payouts: The Risk Management Agency (RMA) released its finalized 2025 crop year county yields. The release immediately triggered unexpected Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) and Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) crop insurance indemnity payouts, providing an immediate cash injection for some producers during a capital-lean period of the year.

WASDE Fundamentals and Macroeconomic Trade Risks: Ben Brown analyzed the global supply fundamentals from the June WASDE report, pointing out a bearish headline addition of 14 million metric tons of global corn supply, which was primarily driven by expanding domestic production in India. On the wheat side, tightening domestic supplies of hard red winter wheat due to poor quality in the Southern Plains were entirely overshadowed by production increases in Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey. Brown also highlighted a powerful 65% statistical correlation linking corn and soybean prices directly to crude oil movements, and issued a warning that a failure to extend the USMCA trade agreement would severely disrupt deeply intertwined agricultural markets with Canada and Mexico.

Premium Opportunities for Row Crop Markets: Kelsey Graber detailed the financial benefits of contracting premium row crops, such as food-grade white corn, non-GMO varieties, and specialized identity-preserved soybeans destined for tofu and soy milk production in Japan and Southeast Asia. While these specialty crops offer substantial premiums over conventional yellow corn and soybeans, they require rigid identity segregation and early contract management, with commercial grower programs regularly filling up between September and December ahead of the next crop year.

Agricultural Policy, Outbreaks, and Global Credit Stress: In legislative news, Chuck Grassley led a Senate push to find a permanent statutory pathway to lift summertime marketing restrictions on E–15 ethanol blends. In livestock health, Texas state animal authorities expanded containment operations following 11 confirmed regional cases of the New World screwworm fly larvae in cattle, sparking fears of northward transmission toward major commercial feeding zones. On the financial front, the U.S. Farm Credit System reported robust capital reserves of $86.4 billion and stable earnings despite domestic inflationary headwinds. This stability stood in sharp contrast to Brazil’s agricultural sector, where a combination of multi-year crop losses, low global grain prices, and high domestic interest rates triggered an unprecedented surge in farm bankruptcies, loan defaults, and creditor-seized land auctions.

Weed Science Field Research Tour June 24: The University of Illinois will host the 2026 Weed Science Field Research Tour on June 24th at the Clem Farm in Champaign. The tour will cover herbicide programs, research plots, and new agricultural products. A ten-dollar fee covers the field tour book, refreshments, and a box lunch. Preregistration is not required, but large groups should notify organizers in advance for meal planning. Search “Illinois Weed Science Field Research Day” for more information or contact Aaron Hager at hager@illinois.edu.

Focus on the Future: Sustaining Farm Legacy June 30: The “Focus on the Future: Sustaining Farm Legacy” series, hosted by University of Illinois Extension and Illinois Farm Bureau, helps farmers manage their operations. The next event is June 30th in Sycamore at the DeKalb County Farm Bureau building. Attendees will hear practical updates on succession planning, farm economics, the Farm Bill, and market conditions. Register today go.illinois.edu/farmlegacy.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences Agronomy Days

June
24 – Weed Science Field Research Tour
30 – Focus on the Future: Sustaining Farm Legacy

July
15 – Orr Agricultural Research and Demonstration Center Field Day
22 – Monmouth Field Day
23 – Ewing Agronomy Field Day

August
06 – Crop Physiology Field Day
12 – Insect Management and Field Plot Tour
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit

September
16 – Alma Mater Plots Agronomy Day

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Jim McCormick of AgMarket.net, Garrett Toay from AgTraderTalk.com, and Mike Zuzolo at GlobalCommResearch.com.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.