WILLAg Radio Week 26 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending June 26, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

The agricultural commodity markets throughout the week of June 22, 2026, experienced a distinct seasonal downtime, driven heavily by investment funds liquidating long positions of over three billion bushels across corn, soybeans, and wheat. This heavy fund sell-off depressed flat prices and caused producer selling to dry up, leaving market participants waiting for upcoming USDA Acreage and quarterly stocks reports to establish clear directions. Analysts Curt Kimmel, Chad Hart, Naomi Blohm, Dan O’Brien, Greg Johnson, Arlan Suderman, Matt Bennett, and Mike Zuzolo evaluated these dynamics, noting that late-week price rallies primarily reflected short covering and evening-up by funds ahead of the June 30 reports. Market drivers shifted significantly toward macroeconomic factors, with Mike Zuzolo emphasizing that a strong U.S. dollar at a 13-month high, crude oil inventory shifts, and currency devaluations in Russia and Japan exerted greater influence over grain values than localized supply-and-demand metrics.

Specific commodity movements revealed robust domestic usage and strong export paces for corn, which helped improve local basis levels despite lower flat prices. Conversely, the dairy sector faced bearish pressure; Naomi Blohm reported that May milk production rose 2.3% year-over-year alongside an expansion of the domestic dairy herd by 99,000 head over five months, forcing Class III milk prices below $16 despite healthy overall demand. Unresolved international demand variables further complicated balance sheet projections. These included uncertainty over whether China would meet its stated targets by the end of the calendar year, alongside a proposed geopolitical arrangement utilizing frozen assets for Iranian agricultural purchases. Elevator operators expressed concern that if these export channels fail to clear sufficient volume before the fall harvest, severe storage constraints could weaken crop basis levels across the Corn Belt.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Global agricultural weather tracking revealed stark contrasts between highly active domestic conditions and severe climate disruptions abroad, as monitored by meteorologists and analysts Mark Russo, Don Day, Drew Lerner, Mike Tannura, and Eric Snodgrass. Early in the week, the U.S. Corn Belt and southern growing regions maintained highly favorable baseline soil moisture. However, consecutive weeks of heavy June rainfall and severe storms throughout Illinois resulted in localized field flooding—triggering an anticipated 1% to 3% downgrade in regional crop condition reports. Eric Snodgrass highlighted that Illinois led the nation with nearly 200 reported tornadoes, an active pattern that successfully eliminated long-term drought conditions but drastically increased crop vulnerability to late-summer disease and fungal pressures. In the western Corn Belt, Dan O’Brien characterized the Kansas wheat harvest as exceptionally poor, reporting near-record-low harvested-to-planted acreage ratios caused by severe storm and derecho damage.

A major atmospheric pattern change developed late in the week as a large, stationary high-pressure ridge—described by Eric Snodgrass as a Rossby standing wave—began building over the Central United States. Forecasters indicated this ridge would introduce a sustained heat wave extending into mid-July, driving daytime temperatures well into the 90s and keeping critical overnight lows elevated in the 70s. While ample soil moisture is expected to trigger hyper-local, cooling ridge-rider thunderstorms that mitigate heat stress for portions of the eastern Corn Belt, meteorologists warned that the stationary nature of the ridge presents an immediate, severe drought risk for states closer to its epicenter, specifically targeting Missouri, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota. International tracking focused heavily on Europe, where France endured a record-breaking heat wave reaching 110 to 116°F, inducing severe moisture stress on vegetative summer corn and sunflowers. Concurrently, Drew Lerner reported that India finished June far below normal precipitation, elevating the probability of a national drought driven by an underperforming El Niño pattern.

Week’s News and Other Items

The Land Grant Weed Science Mission: University of Illinois crop scientist Aaron Hager detailed research from the campus Weed Science Field Day. The program focused heavily on evaluating residual herbicides and active ingredients to manage resistant weed species. Notably, researchers highlighted a multi-state evaluation of Metribuzin applications, demonstrating its ongoing efficacy in controlling pre-emergence waterhemp populations affected by metabolic triazine resistance.

Proposed Iran Soy, Corn, and Wheat Deal: Vice President J.D. Vance announced a proposed structural agreement negotiated in Switzerland regarding frozen Iranian financial assets. Under the plan, any unfreezing of these funds would require joint U.S. and Qatari oversight, with the capital strictly earmarked for purchasing American soy, corn, and wheat to support domestic farmers and provide food aid to the Iranian people.

The Evolving U.S. Southern Crop Problem: Agricultural economist Carl Zulauf published an analysis detailing a long-term structural decline in Southern U.S. agriculture, which has lost 32 million harvested acres—a 38% drop—over the past century. The research questioned whether current federal safety nets, which disproportionately subsidize a narrow set of traditional crops like cotton, peanuts, and rice, are inadvertently hindering regional innovation and crop diversification.

High N-Rates and More Tillage Do Not Pay: University of Illinois Extension agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey presented an 11-year review of on farm data demonstrating that chasing maximum corn yields often reduces net income. The study verified that applying nitrogen above the Maximum Return To Nitrogen (MRTN) baseline or adding extra tillage passes occasionally boosts yields but consistently fails to improve overall profitability due to elevated input costs.

USMCA Mandatory Review Horizon: The United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA) faces a mandatory six-year review beginning July 1. While Mexico and Canada have expressed a desire to maintain the pact, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a preference for termination or immediate expiration. In response to this policy uncertainty, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum noted that Mexico and Canada are actively expanding bilateral maritime trade routes to bypass U.S. infrastructure.

Year-Round E15 and Economic Farm Aid: Provisions for nationwide, year-round E15 sales and billions in emergency agricultural assistance were attached to an Iran war national security supplemental request. The request allocates $10 billion in temporary economic aid for current-year row and specialty crops, alongside over $1 billion dedicated to agricultural storm losses in Florida.

Corn Rootworm Trap Volunteers: University of Illinois field crop entomologist Nick Seiter issued a call for agricultural producers to volunteer for the regional corn rootworm beetle trapping network. Participating growers will be provided sticky traps to monitor local fields, helping researchers track changing rootworm populations and map the prevalence of variant western and northern corn rootworm strains. Email Nick Seiter for more information at nseiter@illinois.edu.

A Century of USDA Radio: Rod Bain presented a historical segment commemorating 100 years of USDA Radio broadcasting. Former producers and historians chronicled the agency’s technological transition from mailing printed “Aunt Sammy” scripts to local stations in 1926, through the eras of reel-to-reel tapes and cassette syndication, to modern digital distribution and smartphone-based field reporting.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences Agronomy Days

June
30 – Focus on the Future: Sustaining Farm Legacy
https://registration.extension.illinois.edu/start/focus-on-the-future-sustaining-farm-legacy-sycamore

July
15 – Orr Agricultural Research and Demonstration Center Field Day
22 – Monmouth Field Day
23 – Ewing Agronomy Field Day

August
06 – Crop Physiology Field Day
12 – Insect Management and Field Plot Tour
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit

September
16 – Alma Mater Plots Agronomy Day

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Greg Johnson with TGM, Arlan Suderman of StoneX, and Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.