WILLAg Radio Week 27 in Review
The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending July 3, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.
Agricultural Markets Synthesis
The agricultural markets during this period were characterized by a transition from technical liquidation to a highly sensitive weather- and policy-driven environment. Prior to the release of the June 30 USDA reports, market analysts including Sue Martin observed a broad downward trend in corn, soybean, and wheat futures, driven by fund liquidation and expectations that old crop crop condition ratings would remain steady. Once the USDA grain stocks and acreage numbers were released, Naomi Blohm and Greg Johnson reported that while the surface figures were fundamentally neutral to bearish—with corn acres steady at 95.3 million, soybean acres up to 85.4 million, and old crop corn stocks remaining near an eight-year high—the market experienced a short-term recovery bounce. Both Johnson and Matt Bennett attributed this positive price reaction to short-covering and profit-taking by funds that held massive short positions heading into the new quarter, rather than a shift in core supply metrics. The notable exception to the neutral data was wheat; Blohm highlighted that the USDA acknowledged a severe drop in winter wheat harvested acres to 21.2 million due to rampant drought in the Plains, providing sustained support to the wheat complex despite comfortable global supplies. By the end of the week, daily settlements showed mixed commodity movements, with corn and wheat finding modest gains while livestock futures like live cattle and feeder cattle faced downward pressure.
The critical drivers dominating the marketplace include regional basis shifts, seasonal producer behavior, and looming geopolitical trade changes. Panelists Shane Holtorf, Naomi Blohm, and Matt Bennett emphasized a significant disparity in old crop corn basis, which remained wide and depressed in high-supply western regions like the Dakotas but reached substantial premiums in corn-deficit eastern regions. Holtorf noted that western producers are facing intense competition with themselves to clear out substantial unpriced on-farm storage before harvest, even as local ethanol plant demand remains highly profitable. According to Johnson, overall grain movement has slowed to a halt because producers are highly reluctant to sell at current low futures levels, forcing local elevators to step up and improve basis bids to stimulate movement. Looking ahead, the panel agreed that without immediate, large-scale new crop purchases from China, soybeans face technical breakdown risks toward their January lows. Furthermore, market sentiment is heavily clouded by the Trump administration’s refusal to automatically renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Bennett and Blohm warned that forcing the agreement into a mandatory annual review process creates severe long-term demand uncertainty, risking vital corn rail networks to Mexico and critical ethanol export channels to Canada.
Weekly Agricultural Weather Synthesis
The progression of agricultural weather forecasts highlighted an abrupt shift from an intense, localized heat wave to a more moderated, active weather pattern across the domestic growing regions. Mark Russo and Trent Ford documented the arrival of a massive high-pressure ridge that blanketed the Corn Belt, Central, and Eastern United States, bringing extreme heat, high dew points, and stifling nighttime temperatures. This sudden weather pattern caused immediate environmental stress across multiple livestock sectors—including Plains beef cattle, Midwestern swine and poultry operations, and East Coast dairy facilities—though Russo and Ed Kieser noted that high winds and shifting clouds tempered the worst impacts. This hot dome suppressed rainfall across the central Corn Belt but triggered severe, “ridge-riding” mesoscale convective complexes that dropped several inches of rain along its northern periphery in northern Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. As the week progressed, meteorologists Mike Tannura, Drew Lerner, and Ed Kieser tracked the eastward migration and subsequent reassembly of this ridge over the Rockies. This structural shift allowed a cooler northwesterly flow and a trailing cool front to drop temperatures below 93 degrees across Illinois and the southeastern Corn Belt, establishing a highly beneficial “jungle” environment of moderate heat combined with widespread, frequent shower chances perfectly timed for early corn pollination.
Looking further into mid-July, the domestic forecast faces a critical divergence that could heavily impact crop yields. Mike Tannura outlined two competing atmospheric models for the July 12–17 pollination window: a 40% probability scenario where the western heat dome re-expands to envelope the central U.S. in prolonged heat, and a 60% probability scenario where a weaker ridge allows cool fronts to maintain normal to below-normal temperatures. Tannura noted that historical data from five strong El Niño cycles over the last 55 years strongly support the cooler outcome, as none featured persistent July heat. On a global scale, weather disruptions have severely damaged international crop potential. Drew Lerner reported that the Canadian prairies are battling catastrophic moisture surpluses, with parts of Alberta receiving an unprecedented 17 inches of rain in June, which is driving widespread spring wheat acreage abandonment across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Simultaneously, Europe has been the epicenter of a phenomenal multi-wave heat wave. Russo and Lerner detailed that all-time high temperature records were shattered over the weekend in Germany and Poland, severely compounding a prolonged agricultural drought in France where rainfall has trended below 50% of normal since March, threatening catastrophic yield losses for European summer corn if soaking rains fail to materialize by late July.
Week’s News and Other Items
Rethinking Phosphorus and Potassium Soil Testing: A pair of University of Illinois Crop Scientist have been reevaluating how tow primary nutrients are measured. Luke Bergschneider and Andrew Margenot posted an article to the farmdoc Daily website. Here is their summary of the work, “Soil tests are operational tools meant to predict the likelihood or probability of a crop response to a P or K application. Soil tests do not represent a literal amount (lb/ac) of crop-available nutrients, and mask complexity in how the actual available pool is replenished by soil chemical and biological processes. That’s ok; operational tools are useful. Soil testing unleashed a step up in precision for P and K management in the second half of the 20th century and stands to be further refined. However, to increase precision – and profitability – of P and K management, evidence is growing that soil testing may not be able to take us where we want. For this, we will next explore an overlooked opportunity for making more accurate and precise decisions on P and K based on testing of grain, not soils”.
New Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction Podcast Episode Drops: This week the first in a three part series titled Cover Crop Conversations was released by University of Illinois Extension. It details the cultural and mindset shifts farmers face when adopting new production methods.
During a recent panel, three Illinois farmers shared their distinct journeys toward embracing these conservation methods. Brent Fowler highlighted the challenge of overcoming institutional family resistance, explaining how an accidental equipment mix-up led to successful no-till testing that ultimately proved profitable and effective at preventing soil erosion. Adam Dahmer emphasized that while accessing information and equipment was difficult in the past, a farmer’s rigid mindset remains the biggest barrier today, stressing the need for adaptable management and open-minded approaches to seeding methods like drills and drones. Finally, Greg Thoren expanded on the broader environmental impacts, noting that transitioning from single-species cover crops to a holistic, multi-species management system not only improves soil health but also supports natural ecosystems by promoting cleaner water and air.
Corn Leaf Aphid Scouting: University of Illinois Extension Field Crops Entomologist Nick Seiter advised producers to actively scout fields as corn enters late vegetative and early reproductive tasseling stages, which are highly conducive to aphid reproduction. Seiter noted that severe corn leaf aphid outbreaks require a rare convergence of heavy southern insect flights, sensitive corn hybrids, and specific late-season weather patterns, making the pest historically uncommon. Fields planted later in the season or utilizing specific hybrids that suffered damage during the notable 2024 outbreak remain at the highest risk for yield reductions and require vigilant monitoring.
Non-GMO Soybeans Profitability: Non-GMO fields in central Illinois within PCM do not have lower yields than GMO fields. Given a $1.30 to $2.30 per bushel premium, non-GMO fields will be more profitable despite the additional $15 per acre in costs. The $85 to $168 in additional revenue from non-GMO premiums will cover those costs and provide an additional profit margin. Non-GMO production will require changes in production practices, including, and prominently, the chemical program. Often, non-GMO production will require on-farm grain storage. If a farmer lacks suitable grain storage, non-GMO production may not be a viable option. Moreover, the delivery of non-GMO grain may require coordination with the purchaser and a longer hauling distance than GMO soybeans. Read more on the farmdoc Daily website.
Regenerative Biofuel Rules: USDA finalized its voluntary regenerative feedstock rule, aligning with an executive order to establish standardized pathways for documenting qualified production practices for corn, soybeans, sorghum, and canola. This newly established regulatory framework is designed to help domestic growers qualify for emerging low-carbon fuel markets and capture additional value through the federal 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit.
Rural AI Data Center Concerns: Data centers, the foundational infrastructure for artificial intelligence and cloud computing, are increasingly expanding into rural areas, prompting significant resource and economic concerns among residents. While these capital-intensive facilities can generate local property tax revenues, they require massive resource inputs, often consuming 500 to 800 acres of agricultural land while demanding substantial electricity and water for cooling systems. According to a February 2026 Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, rural residents exhibit higher apprehension regarding data centers compared to urban and suburban populations. The survey identified three primary anxieties: escalating electricity costs (rated 5.41 out of 7 by rural respondents), water overuse, and the conversion of farmland. The potential for increased utility bills—a direct threat to personal finances—proved the most pronounced worry, especially as regional energy requirements for data centers are projected to double or triple in several Midwestern states by 2030. To navigate these structural shifts, researchers urge rural communities to conduct rigorous due diligence on prospective developers, carefully evaluating zoning, resource consumption, and actual economic trade-offs prior to project approval.
Screwworm Mitigation Legislation: A bipartisan group of federal lawmakers introduced a bill authorizing cooperative extension agents to act as livestock inspectors and train local producers to detect, report, and contain the rising threat of the New World screwworm parasite.
Prop 12 Political Friction: Senate Ag Chair John Boozman defended his farm bill draft’s omission of restrictions on California’s Prop 12 animal confinement standards, stating that a party-line vote achieves nothing and that pork producers lack the necessary Democratic floor votes to override the state rule.
Supply Chain Labor Risks: A recent Supreme Court ruling granting the administration power to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for over a million immigrants sparked industry concern regarding potential labor shortages for domestic meatpackers and food processors.
That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.
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University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences Agronomy Days
July
15 – Orr Agricultural Research and Demonstration Center Field Day
22 – Monmouth Field Day
23 – Ewing Agronomy Field Day
30 – Resources, Services, and Tools for Farmers with Disabilities
https://forms.illinois.edu/sec/1985347851
August
06 – Crop Physiology Field Day
12 – Insect Management and Field Plot Tour
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
September
16 – Alma Mater Plots Agronomy Day
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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net, Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing, and Shane Holtorf with Logic Ag Marketing.
The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.