WILLAg Radio Week 29 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending July 17, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Geopolitical disruptions in the Black Sea region and escalating conflicts in the Middle East emerged as the dominant market drivers, introducing a notable risk premium that overshadowed traditional domestic weather factors. Market analysts Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing), Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing), Matt Bennett (AgMarket.net), Curt Kimmel (AgMarket.net), Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting), and Arlan Suderman (StoneX) collectively detailed a complex macroeconomic environment where global tensions directly influenced commodity values. Russian military attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa and drone-driven conflict near the Sea of Azov severely restricted regional grain and fertilizer flows, triggering upward movements in Chicago wheat futures. This volatility directly spilled over into the domestic corn and soybean markets. Macroeconomically, analysts drew parallels to the 1980s, highlighting volatile international energy markets, currency fluctuations, and the possible implementation of U.S. military escorts for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which surged crude oil futures higher and threatens to drive up diesel and fertilizer prices.

Despite these outside geopolitical influences, domestic crop fundamentals remained steady. The market observed a unique positioning from investment funds, which held an unseasonably large long position in soybeans while shifting from an extremely short position in corn to a neutral-to-slight long stance just as the crop entered critical pollination and grain-fill stages. On the demand side, localized processing demand remained robust, bolstered by intermittent Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. However, structural constraints within the domestic biofuels sector tempered long-term optimism. While soybean crushing operated at maximum capacity, biomass-based diesel production faced significant operational headwinds. Older production plants grappled with severe cash flow limitations and maintenance backlogs stemming from delayed regulatory guidelines for the EPA’s Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) and the upcoming 45Z tax credit. As the marketing window for old-crop supplies closes, analysts advise producers to secure downside price protection, monitor fluctuating local cash basis levels, and implement scale-up sales to manage impending harvest-time volatility.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Agricultural weather forecasts tracked a distinct atmospheric divide, characterized by localized heat stress across the northern and western Corn Belt contrasting with favorable growing conditions in the central and eastern regions. Meteorologists Drew Lerner (World Weather Inc.), Don Day (Day Weather), and Mark Russo (EverStream Analytics) documented the progression of a stubborn high-pressure ridge that anchored well-above-average temperatures across the northern tier of the United States. Initial forecasts recorded extreme, triple-digit heat waves exceeding 100°F across eastern Montana, the western Dakotas, and the upper Missouri River Basin, which caused a steady decline in spring wheat crop ratings. Corn and soybean crops across the northern Corn Belt experienced stressful conditions as daytime temperatures reached the 90s, compounded by elevated nighttime lows staying above 75°F during the critical pollination phase. However, the meteorologists noted the heat was manageable and stopped short of historic extremes. Major production zones like the Red River Valley and sections of Minnesota remained insulated from severe yield degradation due to significant, pre-existing soil moisture reserves and a two-to-five-inch rainfall event that occurred right before the heat wave arrived.

As the coming week progresses, the stubborn high-pressure ridge is expect to retrogress westward over the Rocky Mountains, initiating a temporary reprieve. A series of cool fronts should successfully drop temperatures down into the 80s for daytime highs and 60s for overnight lows across much of the Midwest, providing plants with crucial nocturnal resting time to mitigate prior heat stress. Despite the cooler temperatures, the resulting northwest flow jet stream pattern will also suppress rainfall, causing rapid drying across Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Kansas, and the western Corn Belt. While ample early-season moisture will allow crops to ride out the dry spell through July, meteorologists warned that a continuation of this dry pattern into early August would pose an immediate threat to soybeans entering the pod-development stage. Forecasters anticipated that an early startup of the southwest monsoon could pull quasi-tropical moisture into the Central Plains by early August to alleviate the deficit.

Week’s News and Other Items

Soil Management and Sulfur Fertilizers: During Agronomy Day at the Orr Research Center in western Illinois, researchers addressed sulfur fertilizer. Historically, Midwestern soils received adequate sulfur via atmospheric deposition from coal-fired power plants. As clean air regulations successfully reduced this free atmospheric supply, soil deficiencies expanded. A recent 2025 soil test survey revealed over 50% of routine soil samples processed across Illinois dropped below seven parts per million, placing them squarely in the “very low” category according to the Agronomy Handbook.

Wildfire Smoke Atmospheric Impacts: Meteorologists analyzed the compounding environmental effects of seasonal wildfire smoke actively sweeping across the Corn Belt, noting it has become an annual atmospheric fixture over the past decade. Dense, localized layers of wildfire smoke act analogously to light fog, filtering out direct sunshine and preventing full solar radiation from heating the ground. This phenomenon successfully holds down peak daytime temperatures while leaving overnight minimums largely unaffected. The smoke filters out visible sunshine, reducing the raw units of sun available to the crop for photosynthesis. Historical yield data indicates that the ultimate impact of this solar filtering on final crop yields remains minor and within normal parameters.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You may find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from University of Illinois ag economist, crop scientists and animal scientists online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences Agronomy Days

July
22 – Monmouth Field Day
23 – Ewing Agronomy Field Day
30 – Resources, Services, and Tools for Farmers with Disabilities

August
06 – Crop Physiology Field Day
12 – Insect Management and Field Plot Tour

September
16 – Alma Mater Plots Agronomy Day

October
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Mike Zuzolo with GlobalCommResearch.com and Arlan Suderman of StoneX.com.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.