WILLAg Radio Week 31 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending July 31, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Agricultural commodity markets experienced high volatility and a sharp downward move during the week, driven by shifting weather models, geopolitical headlines, and macroeconomic pressures. Analysts and economists participating in the broadcasts included Curt Kimmel (AgMarket.net), Chad Hart (Iowa State University), Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing), Matt Bennett (AgMarket.net), Chip Nellinger (Blue Reef Agri-Marketing), Jason Winter (Columbia Grain International), and Mike Zuzolo (GlobalCommResearch.com).

The trading week opened on Monday with steep losses across the grain complex, as September and December corn fell over 12 to 13 cents, November soybeans dropped nearly 40 cents, and wheat lost 18 cents. Curt Kimmel attributed early pressure to reports that China was attempting to broker peace discussions between the U.S. and Iran, which raised prospects for restored trade flows through the Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Chad Hart emphasized that global military conflicts have created extreme price swings—“taking the elevator everywhere”—and advised producers to price crops when market opportunities cover production costs rather than waiting for hypothetical $6.00 corn, given the large domestic supplies from the previous year’s harvest. Greg Johnson noted that market volatility was further amplified by uncertainty over whether China would fulfill its commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, potential retaliatory tariffs tied to proposed Section 301 policies, and wide-ranging private yield estimates for corn (179 to 186 bushels per acre) compared to the USDA’s 183 average benchmark.

During the Commodity Week panel discussion, Matt Bennett, Chip Nellinger, and Jason Winter evaluated structural shifts in regional demand. Winter reported that North Dakota has seen a long-term transition from wheat to row crops, supported by strong corn export demand to the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and new domestic soybean crushing capacity (such as plants in Casselton and Jamestown) competing heavily for crush bushels. The panel agreed that while short-term futures prices were being suppressed by impending rainfall forecasts, shrinking long-term global grain stocks, tight U.S. carryout, and potential El Niño disruptions in South America provide underlying support. They recommended that farmers utilize on-farm storage to maintain long-term ownership while pragmatically pricing uncommitted harvest bushels. By the end of the week, November soybeans had dropped nearly 70 cents from the previous Friday’s high of $12.56 1/2 down to $11.88 1/2, while Friday’s session closed with corn down four and a half cents, soybeans down a penny and a quarter, and wheat falling 24 cents. Mike Zuzolo highlighted broader macroeconomic headwind risks, including rising 10-year Treasury bond yields, shifting asset allocations between equities and commodities, severe drought in Europe, and elevated energy costs linked to ongoing Middle Eastern tensions.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

The week’s weather coverage tracked the impact of extreme July heat across the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt, followed by the arrival of a significant late-week cooling and precipitation system. Meteorologists presenting forecasts included Mark Russo (EverStream Analytics), Drew Lerner (World Weather Inc.), Mike Tannura (Tstorm Weather), and Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible).

Early in the week, Mark Russo reported severe supercell thunderstorms across the Chicago region and noted a fundamental pattern shift as a dominant high-pressure ridge over the Plains weakened and retrograded toward the Rockies. This movement allowed cold fronts to drop southward across the Midwest, ushering in near-normal rainfall totals (1.00 to 1.25 inches per week) and cooler temperatures. Drew Lerner evaluated the severe thermal stress in the northwestern Corn Belt, where temperatures reached 114°F to 115°F in parts of South Dakota and Montana. Lerner clarified that while topsoils dried out rapidly during late July and stressed approximately 25% of the regional crop, subsoil moisture reserves prevented catastrophic widespread yield destruction prior to incoming rains.

Mike Tannura highlighted that 80% of U.S. corn and soybean acreage experienced drier-than-normal conditions over the prior 15 days, resulting in national crop condition rating drops of 4 points for corn and 3 points for soybeans. However, Tannura identified an unusually strong late-July low-pressure system originating in South Dakota that generated widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Midwest, effectively stabilizing crop conditions and restoring soil moisture heading into August. Concluding the weekly outlook, Eric Snodgrass noted that despite recent rains, areas in the Western Corn Belt, Red River Valley, and Dakotas accumulated over 140 stress degree days during July, resulting in permanent yield loss in those specific pockets. Looking ahead to late summer and autumn, Snodgrass anticipated moderate temperatures for the central Corn Belt but warned that an emerging, historic El Niño pattern threatens to delay South American planting in northern Brazil (Mato Grosso) due to dryness, while causing excessive rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina.

Week’s News and Other Items

Farm Economy & Financial Outlook: University of Illinois agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey presented an economic analysis highlighting an ongoing cost-price squeeze affecting Midwestern row crop producers. Commodity prices have returned to long-run historical plateaus—averaging approximately $4.40 per bushel for corn and $10.60 for soybeans—while crop production inputs remain near their post–2022 peak levels. For the 2026 crop year, northern Illinois cash-rented corn and soybean operations face projected negative returns of -$20 per acre. Ad hoc government payments (such as $38 per acre from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program and $40 in projected ad hoc disaster support) continue to buffer overall farm balance sheets. However, Schnitkey warned that these federal payments artificially support elevated cash land rents. Looking into 2027, the Iran conflict is projected to significantly drive up input expenditures, pushing fall anhydrous ammonia prices above $1,000 per ton and tightening MAP and DAP fertilizer availability due to Middle Eastern crude oil sulfur constraints.

ADM Investing in Crush Capacity: ADM has announced a strategic series of investments aimed at expanding its North American oilseed crush capacity to meet the rising demand for renewable fuels and vegetable oils. Driven largely by U.S. biofuels policies, the initiative relies on making targeted infrastructure and throughput enhancements to existing operations rather than constructing entirely new plants. These localized facility upgrades will collectively unlock approximately 700,000 metric tons of additional annual crush capacity, generating new demand for over 25 million bushels of crops from American agricultural producers. The initial expansion efforts will focus on four specific U.S. production facilities located in Frankfort, Indiana; Deerfield, Missouri; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Spiritwood, North Dakota. Planned enhancements range from storage and equipment upgrades to comprehensive debottlenecking and operational optimization, with project completion dates scheduled between mid-2028 and early 2029.

Meat Snack Industry Trends: CoBank livestock economist Abby Groves reviewed a report detailing rapid expansion in the meat snack sector, which has grown 45% over the past four to five years to reach $4.4 billion in annual sales. Drivers behind this demand include younger demographic trends, consumer preference for clean-label proteins, and increased snack consumption among individuals taking GLP–1 weight-loss medications. To keep pace with demand, food manufacturers have directed roughly $1 billion of the $8 billion invested in total animal protein processing facilities over the past six years specifically toward meat snack production infrastructure.

Rural Health Disparities: A collaborative report from the University of Illinois and the USDA revealed growing health disparities between rural and urban populations. Adults aged 25 to 54 in rural American communities are dying from natural causes—including heart disease, cancer, and circulatory illnesses—at significantly higher rates than urban counterparts. Researchers noted that these health trends pose long-term economic risks by diminishing the local labor supply required to sustain rural businesses.

Phosphate Fertilizer Supply: StoneX fertilizer analyst Josh Linville warned of severe global supply constraints in the phosphate market. Although an estimated 50% reduction in farmer application rates—driven by tight profit margins and high soil test baselines—is expected to cushion the initial supply deficit, Linville cautioned that any unexpected last-minute surge in autumn demand could trigger sharp localized price spikes and product shortages.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

*Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.*

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University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences Agronomy Days

August
05 – Agrivoltaics Field Day
06 – Crop Physiology Field Day
11 – Alma Mater Plots Agronomy Day
12 – Insect Management and Field Plot Tour
14 – Illinois State Fair Ag Day
19 – Illinois State Fair Sale of Champions

October
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit

September
19 – Celebrate Food and Ag Tailgate – ILLINOIS vs SIU
30 – University of Illinois Homecoming

October
28 – Morrow Plots 150th Celebration

November
03 – Illinois NLRS Conference

December
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net, Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, and Jason Winter with Columbia Grain International.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.