WILLAg Radio Week 37 in Review
The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending September 11, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.
Agricultural Markets Synthesis
Early in the week, Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) noted quiet post-holiday trade for corn and soybeans, observing that corn closed below key moving averages and required fresh bullish news to avoid a pullback. Wheat saw double-digit gains driven by ongoing geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea region. Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) provided historical context for the recent August grain rally, comparing it to surge years like 2003, 2011, and 2022. He advised producers not to hold out for significantly higher prices, as these late-summer spikes often settle back down as harvest progresses. Pre-report estimates indicated lower corn and soybean yields, leaving traders to debate whether this was already priced into the market. Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing) confirmed expectations of lower corn yields, particularly in the hot and dry northern Midwest, while noting that unfulfilled Chinese soybean and corn purchases remained a wildcard. Matt Bennett (AgMarket.net) highlighted tight global soybean stocks had pushed prices to near three-year highs, advising producers to use the rally to hedge risk and secure profitable margins. In the Commodity Week broadcast, Matt Darragh (Kpler) provided international context, explaining that escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine had restricted nearly a third of global wheat export capacity, driving up war-risk premiums and forcing buyers to look to alternative suppliers like Argentina and Australia. Garrett Toay (AgTraderTalk.com) analyzed the USDA’s reported 15.8 billion bushel corn crop and slightly increased 4.535 billion bushel soybean crop, cautioning that a historically wide November soybean-December corn spread would likely face a seasonal correction as harvest pressure builds. Ellen Dearden (Ag Review) added that U.S. corn harvested acres unexpectedly dropped by 100,000, while severe drought in the European Union would force the EU to import corn, keeping global balances tight. Finally, Mike Zuzolo (GlobalCommResearch.com) observed surging crude oil prices tied to Middle Eastern tensions were propping up grain markets, though he warned that technical thresholds and fund positioning could trigger a breakdown if support levels like $12.95 for November soybeans were breached.
Agricultural Weather Synthesis
Don Day (DayWeather) began the week predicting modest temperature relief and the arrival of subtropical moisture, which would trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the parched southern U.S. and Corn Belt. Drew Lerner (World Weather Incorporated) elaborated on these patterns, noting that heavy, harvest-delaying rains were hitting Iowa and expanding across the Midwest, while the drought-stricken southwestern plains remained dangerously hot, evaporating moisture almost as quickly as it fell. Internationally, Lerner warned that erratic early-season showers in central Brazil and excessively wet conditions in southern Brazil could disrupt early planting. Mike Tannura (Tstorm Weather) confirmed this transition to a cooler, wetter central U.S. pattern, which he expected to significantly improve soil moisture for impending winter wheat planting. Tannura also emphasized that southern Brazil was experiencing unusually heavy September rainfall, driven by the rapid development of a historically strong El Niño that could profoundly impact the entire South American growing season. By the end of the week, Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions) contrasted a hyperactive, El Niño-fueled Pacific hurricane season with an abnormally quiet Atlantic basin suppressed by wind shear. Snodgrass warned that while upcoming Midwest rains would stall harvest progress, the overarching El Niño pattern tilted the odds toward a persistently wetter U.S. fall, further compressing application and harvest windows.
The Week’s News and Other Items
Where’s the Beef: The beef industry faced significant producer frustration this week over the Trump administration’s 90-day suspension of tariffs on imported South American beef. Nebraska rancher John O’Dea criticized the move, arguing that intentionally driving down consumer prices destroys producer margins and discourages herd expansion. Travis Meteer (University of Illinois) provided broader context, explaining that the U.S. cattle cycle is currently at a low herd inventory point, which has led to packing plant closures and forced feedlots to raise cattle to all-time heavy weights to compensate. Meteer noted that government interventions like the tariff suspension undermine market profitability signals just as the cow-calf sector was poised to rebuild the herd.
Black Sea Conflict from Kpler’s Perspective: Following the mid-July escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, severe disruptions have paralyzed the Black Sea grain trade and constrained nearly a third of the global wheat supply noted Matt Darragh from the global shipping logistics company Kpler during Commodity Week. Ukrainian drone strikes in the Sea of Azov prompted Russian retaliations that significantly damaged export infrastructure on both sides he said. This conflict paralyzed Ukraine’s three primary deepwater ports—Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Yuzhny—which historically handled over 90% of the country’s grain exports. Operations at crucial Russian ports, including Novorossiysk, Tuapse, and Taman, were similarly curtailed. Because Russia and Ukraine typically account for 25% and 10% of global wheat trade respectively, the loss of these logistical hubs has effectively frozen international shipments during the historically busy third quarter. Despite international efforts by Turkey and the United States to broker a ceasefire for commercial vessels and lower war-risk insurance premiums, negotiations remain stalled, says Darrah, over territorial disputes while infrastructure strikes continue. Both nations are struggling to find alternative export routes. Russia is attempting to redirect grain through Baltic Sea ports, and Ukraine is utilizing Danube River barges toward Romania, but these workarounds lack the capacity to replace the lost deepwater terminals. Consequently, Black Sea export volumes plummeted throughout August and September. Major wheat importers, such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, have left import tenders unfilled rather than paying the inflated war-risk premiums, while other nations like Indonesia are pivoting to Argentine and Australian wheat. Russian and Ukrainian farmers are now forced to use silo bags to store their harvest for up to 12 months, creating a significant supply overhang and depressing local ex-farm values. While taking a bullish market position remains risky amid these constraints, any sudden peace agreement could release a massive, delayed flush of Black Sea grain into the global market thinks Darragh.
Fall Fertilizer Application Recommendations: As farmers prepare for fall fertilizer applications, high nutrient costs are making precise application strategies more critical for maintaining profitability. According to University of Illinois Soil Scientist John Jones, utilizing up-to-date soil tests offers a high return on investment, particularly with phosphorus products reaching $900 per ton. Jones advises growers to utilize two-and-a-half-acre grid sampling or carefully mapped zone sampling to avoid applying nutrients where they will not yield a crop response. Ongoing university research indicates a low probability of crop response when soil test values exceed 17 to 25 parts per million for phosphorus on a Bray-1 test, and 160 to 200 parts per million for potassium. In fields testing above these thresholds, farmers can allow nutrient levels to naturally draw down without incurring application expenses. For fall anhydrous ammonia applications, primarily utilized north of Interstate 70, Jones emphasizes patience regarding soil conditions. Applications should only begin when soil temperatures fall below 50 degrees Fahrenheit at a four-inch depth and demonstrate a consistent decreasing trend. This temperature threshold restricts the soil biological activity that converts stable ammonium into nitrate, which is highly susceptible to environmental loss. To determine the most profitable nitrogen application rates, Jones recommends utilizing the online Corn Nitrogen Rate Calculator (cornNratecalc.org), which utilizes data from hundreds of on-farm trials to identify the maximum economic return to nitrogen. When building a nitrogen management plan for the 2027 crop, he cautions that producers must calculate the total applied nitrogen across the entire system. This means factoring in all nitrogen sources, including the nitrogen content found in fall phosphorus fertilizers and spring broadcast herbicide applications, rather than solely calculating the anhydrous ammonia application rate.
Wheat Double-Crop Soybean Profitability: Current projections suggest a wheat and double-crop soybean rotation will be the most profitable option for southern Illinois farmers in 2027, continuing a recent trend of outperforming both standalone corn and soybeans. According to University of Illinois agricultural economists Gary Schnitkey and Nick Paulson, the combination is expected to generate an operator and land return of $309 per acre next year, beating projected returns for standalone corn by $174 and standalone soybeans by $105. While wheat acreage in the state remains below its 2008 peak, this two-crop system already generated the highest returns among the three alternatives in 2022 and 2023, and it is on track to do so again for 2026. The economists note that from 2021 through 2025, the wheat and double-crop soybean system yielded an average return of $363 per acre—$70 higher than corn and $89 higher than standalone soybeans.
Higher Corn Prices and Swine Finishing Feed Costs: Swine finishing enterprises can expect feed costs to jump nearly 10 percent in 2027, driven largely by elevated corn futures. According to Purdue University agricultural economist Michael Langemeier, feed expenses remain highly sensitive to fluctuations in both corn and soybean meal markets. Langemeier notes that every 10-cent increase in the per-bushel price of corn adds 43 cents per hundredweight to finishing feed costs, while a $10 per ton increase in soybean meal adds 37 cents per hundredweight. With current feed costs sitting near $36.50 per hundredweight, pricing volatility next spring and summer could push those expenses anywhere from $35 to $43 per hundredweight depending on the final commodity baseline.
That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.
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September
17 – farmdoc Webinar | Farmland Values and Rental Agreements in Illinois for 2027
19 – Celebrate Food and Ag Tailgate – ILLINOIS vs SIU
26 – Crop Sciences Harvest Open House
30 – University of Illinois Homecoming
https://homecoming.illinois.edu
October
06 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots
December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb
January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention
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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Matt Darragh from Kpler, Ellen Dearden of Ag Review, Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk.com.
The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.