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2009 Final Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts

About This Publication

The purpose of this brief is to update our previous evaluation of yield potential for corn and soybeans in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in 2009. (Irwin, Good, and Tannura, August 2009c,d). This update makes use of a crop weather model that estimates the impact of technology (trend), state average monthly weather variables, and portion of the crop planted late on state average yield. Previously, that model was used to evaluate 2009 yield potential based on planting progress, state average precipitation through July 2009, and alternative 2009 August weather scenarios. This update incorporates preliminary state average precipitation and temperature for August, the final month used in the model. The yield forecasts for the three states are then used to project the U.S. average yield. Trend yields for 2009 for each of the three states and the U.S. are also presented. It should be noted at the outset that average July temperatures for 2009 were well below the coldest July in the sample of historical observations used to estimate the crop weather model. In addition August temperatures were at the low end of historical experience. These conditions may reduce the ability of the model to accurately reflect the impact of July and August 2009 temperatures on yield potential.

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