Marketing and Outlook Research Briefs

2011 • 2010 • 2009 • 2008 • 2007

• March 23, 2011 - USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Yield Forecasts:Dispelling Myths and Misunderstandings

  The U.S. is the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn and soybeans. As a result, the size of the crops in the U.S. has a substantial impact on the price of corn and soybeans. During the planting and growing season, market participants form expectations about the potential size of these crops from a variety of private and public sources of information. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is the primary provider of public information relative to potential crop size.
• March 2, 2011 - Alternative 2011 Corn Production, Consumption, and Price Scenarios

  At 12.477 billion bushels, the 2010 U.S. corn crop was nearly a billion bushels smaller than early season forecasts. The shortfall reflected a below-trend average yield of 152.8 bushels, 11.9 bushels below the record average yield of 2009.

• March 11, 2010 - Alternative 2010 Corn Production Scenarios and Policy Implications

  The quantity of U.S. corn used for domestic ethanol production has grown rapidly in recent years, driven by mandated production levels of renewable biofuels, tax credits for ethanol blenders, and a tariff on imported ethanol. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that corn use for ethanol production increased from 1.603 billion bushels during…

• September 15, 2009 - 2009 Final Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts

  The purpose of this brief is to update our previous evaluation of yield potential for corn and soybeans in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in 2009. (Irwin, Good, and Tannura, August 2009c,d). This update makes use of a crop weather model that estimates the impact of technology (trend), state average monthly weather variables, and portion of…
• August 13, 2009 - 2009 Soybean Yield Prospects Improving

  The purpose of this brief is to update our previous evaluation of yield potential for soybeans in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in 2009. (Irwin, Good, and Tannura, 2009). This update makes use of a crop weather model that estimates the impact of technology (trend), state average monthly weather variables, and portion of the crop planted…
• August 13, 2009 - 2009 Corn Yield Prospects Continue to Improve

  The purpose of this brief is to update our previous evaluation of yield potential for corn in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in 2009. (Irwin, Good, and Tannura, 2009b). This update makes use of a crop weather model that estimates the impact of technology (trend), state average monthly weather variables, and portion of the crop planted…
• July 2, 2009 - 2009 Corn Yield Prospects Improving

  The purpose of this brief is to update our previous evaluation of yield potential for corn in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in 2009. (Irwin, Good, and Tannura, 2009). This update makes use of a crop weather model that estimates the impact of technology (trend), state average monthly weather variables, and portion of the crop planted…
• July 2, 2009 - Early Prospects for 2009 Soybean Yields in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

  The USDA’s first forecast of the potential size of the 2009 U.S. soybean crop was released on May 12 (USDA/WASDE, 2009). That forecast was based on: 1) acreage expected to be harvested for grain, which is a function of planting intentions revealed in the March 2009 Prospective Plantings report and the 5-year average planted to…
• June 4, 2009 - Early Prospects for 2009 Corn Yields in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

  The USDA’s first forecast of the potential size of the 2009 U.S. corn crop was released on May 12 (USDA/WASDE, 2009). That forecast was based on: 1) acreage  expected to be harvested for grain, which is a function of planting intentions revealed in the March 2009 Prospective Plantings report and the historical relationship between acreage…

• September 2, 2008 - The New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices

  Prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat started moving higher in the fall of 2006 and have remained generally high and well above average prices in the previous 30 years. These higher prices, and the volatility associated with the higher prices, have resulted in the kind of uncertainty reflected in the quote above. Are higher prices…
• July 14, 2008 - Forming Expectations About 2008 U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields—Application of Crop Weather Models that Incorporate Planting Progress

  In the current environment of strong domestic and export demand, relatively low world stocks, and historically high prices, the expected size of the 2008 U.S. corn and soybean crops takes on added significance. The market’s expectation about the prospective size of the crops will have a major influence on prices for the next three months.…
• February 20, 2008 - Are Corn Trend Yields Increasing at a Faster Rate?

  Crop yields are affected by a complex combination of factors, such as weather, seed genetics, and producer-level management techniques. Despite this complexity, yields tend to show a general increase over time, which is  commonly referred to as the “trend yield.”
• January 8, 2008 - So How Do I Make Corn and Soybean Pricing Decisions?

  Corn and soybean producers have long identified price risk as one of the highest risk management priorities of the farm business. One of the major challenges, as well as sources of frustration, of corn and soybean pricing is the extreme variability in prices, not only across years, but within years. For example, during the 25…

• May 17, 2007 - 2007 U.S. Corn Production Risks: What Does History Teach Us?

  From May to October each year, the corn market typically finds direction from the prospective size of the U.S. corn crop. Expectation about crop size starts with the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report, changes with the USDA weekly reports of planting progress and crop conditions and the June Acreage report, and culminates with the USDA…