Jan 08 | Weather Update and Market Review
Happy new year! For the first summary of 2026, we’ll take a quick look back at December and the weather year of 2025, and then look forward to the rest of winter and a bit of spring.
December was around 2.5 degrees colder than normal statewide, which was quite a contrast to a very warm fall season. However, the average temperature in December doesn’t tell the story of its huge temperature swings. Much of the state had temperatures that were 20 to 30 degrees below normal in the middle of the month, followed by temperatures that were 15 to 25 degrees above normal around Christmas. Despite the cooler end to the year, warmer weather in 2025 dominated, and the year ended around 1 degree warmer than normal statewide.
December gave us a mixed bag for precipitation. Much of central and northern Illinois were very snowy last month, including parts of central Illinois that had 400% of normal December snowfall. However, the snow did not contain a lot of liquid water, so parts of the state that had nearly 20 inches of snow still ended the month slightly drier than normal. Overall, northern and western Illinois were 1 to 2 inches wetter than normal last month, while eastern and southern Illinois were between 1 and 4 inches drier than normal. Last month was actually the 2nd driest December on record in Carbondale, with only six tenths of an inch. 2025 was also quite a dry year statewide, with only April and July having above normal precipitation. Of course, this varied across the state, as southeast Illinois had 2 to 5 inches above average precipitation last year, while east-central Illinois was 10 to 15 inches drier than normal. 2025 was the second driest year on record in Champaign-Urbana with only 24.5 inches, and the driest year since 1894.
Looking ahead, outlooks show a temperature roller coaster for the rest of January and into February. There are increasing signs of some serious cold coming in the last week of January, along with multiple clipper systems that could bring more snow to the state. As winter transitions to spring, forecasts indicate better chances of our La Nina conditions weakening and likely dying before we get too far into March. The most recent outlooks for early spring still show a strong La Nina signal for Illinois, with wetter weather, but that confidence really drops off between March and May as La Nina fades. Interestingly, models are increasingly bullish for a transition from La Nina to possible El Nino conditions by fall.
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WILLAg.org radio programming for the work week ending January 9, 2026
Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing, Ellen Dearden at AgReview, and Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities.
The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.