Apr 10 | Weather Update and Market Review
ISWS PRI University of Illinois
WILLAg.org radio programming for the work week ending April 10, 2026
Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Shane Holtorf with Logic Ag Marketing, Chuck Shelby of RMC Zaner, and Ted Seifried from Zaner Ag Hedge.
The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.
Commodity Markets and Geopolitical Influences
The week in commodity markets was heavily influenced by geopolitical events and energy prices, particularly the ongoing conflict with Iran. Earlier in the week, traders squared positions and moved to the sidelines ahead of a deadline with Iran, while keeping a close watch on crude oil resistance levels. Later, a temporary truce caused crude oil prices to plunge, though grain markets showed resilience and decoupled slightly from the energy sell-off. Furthermore, the April WASDE report provided little fresh news, leaving domestic corn and soybean ending stocks largely unchanged and reflecting ample supplies. Market watchers are also monitoring South American production, with analysts pointing to a massive Brazilian soybean crop and potentially larger-than-expected Argentine corn yields that could loosen global balance sheets.
Weather Patterns and Crop Conditions
Across the United States, weather patterns presented a sharp divide. In the Corn Belt, widespread moderate to heavy weekend rainfall boosted subsoil moisture just as planting season approaches. However, forecasters warn a highly active and warm weather pattern could bring frequent thunderstorms, potentially turning planting conditions overly wet across a wide area by mid-April.
Conversely, the western Plains continued to suffer from a persistent, historic drought affecting the hard red winter wheat crop. Forecasters noted that while the eastern portions of the Plains would receive beneficial soaking rains, the higher-elevation western areas would largely miss out, offering only partial and temporary recovery for the struggling wheat. In South America, conditions remained favorable, with Brazil’s lingering monsoon season benefiting the safrinha corn crop and Argentina receiving a timely break from excessive rains to aid harvest progress.
Input Costs and Farmer Sentiment
The geopolitical conflict has significantly impacted agricultural input costs, creating what agricultural economist Gerald Mashange described as an “escalation trap”. The conflict has disrupted the flow of natural gas, oil, and fertilizers, with the damage to LNG facilities threatening global urea and nitrogen supplies. Consequently, University of Illinois ag econ models project anhydrous ammonia prices to remain high, conservatively estimated at $860 per ton into the fall. Surprisingly, despite these rising costs and tightening margins, the Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed that U.S. farmer sentiment actually improved in March. Economists attributed this unexpected optimism to recent government Bridge payments and a slight uptick in corn prices that temporarily offset the negativity surrounding expensive inputs.
Agronomy and Weed Resistance
In the field, weed resistance continues to force producers to reevaluate their chemistry strategies. University of Illinois weed scientist Aaron Hager highlighted growing concerns over waterhemp populations developing resistance to Group 15 soil-applied herbicides. Greenhouse tests on samples collected from across Illinois suggested a much higher frequency of resistance than initially anticipated. To combat this, Hager suggested producers consider utilizing metribuzin, an asymmetrical triazine that exploits a weakness in the metabolic resistance profile of waterhemp, providing a potentially cheaper and effective residual option.
Farmland Value and Equipment Maintenance
Looking at long-term assets, the value of farmland remains historically strong and incredibly stable. According to U of Illinois agricultural economist Bruce Sherrick, farmland has proven to be a highly tax-efficient investment that correlates well with inflation and rarely experiences massive value drawdowns. The market is characterized by an extremely low turnover rate, with the average farm being held for over 65 years, meaning that commercial-grade land remains in high demand whenever it does become available. You may hear more in the Friday Closing Market Report (see player above after 2pm Friday).
Finally, on the equipment front, John Deere announced software updates to its new and existing machines to comply with recent EPA repair guidance. This change allows farmers to utilize the John Deere Operation Center Pro Service to temporarily override certain emission control systems and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) issues. This flexibility is designed to keep farmers running in the field during critical planting and harvesting windows before a machine derates.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts for the week and formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool Gemini and has been reviewed by Todd Gleason.