WILLAg Radio Week 44 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending October 30, 2026.

WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of agricultural markets, research, and weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

The week’s commodity trade across the Closing Market Report broadcasts and the Commodity Week panel reflected broad seasonal and fund-driven weakness, marked by an overarching post-harvest sell-off following September highs. A dominant theme across all market segments was aggressive institutional fund liquidation and the establishment of new speculative short positions. After a counter-seasonal rally into September pushed corn and soybeans to contract highs, USDA’s October Crop Production report unexpectedly raised corn yields rather than lowering them. This fundamental surprise prompted funds to exit lengthy long positions in corn, soybeans, and soybean meal. Outside macro drivers—including the strength of the U.S. dollar, crude oil volatility, shifting biofuel policy expectations (especially 45Z tax credit implementations), and uncertainty surrounding upcoming U.S. congressional elections—further dictated trading sentiment.

In soybeans, strong domestic crush demand and steady export activity—including recent sales to China aiming toward a 25 million metric ton calendar-year target—provided underlying support, as detailed by Joe Janzen (University of Illinois). However, that strength was counterbalanced by immediate price shocks triggered by the reelection of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. As Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) and Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing) pointed out, Lula’s victory caused the Brazilian real to slide sharply against the U.S. dollar, making Brazilian soybeans instantly more price-competitive on the world market and spurring heavy technical selling in Chicago futures. Technically, November soybean futures broke below key support thresholds, testing their 100-day moving average near $12.28, with market watchers eyeing the $12.00 psychological level. By Friday’s close, front-month futures held around $12.22¼, while soybean meal came under steady pressure and soybean oil found footing above its $65.50 chart support level.

The corn market struggled to establish upward momentum, weighed down by the October USDA national yield increase to 181.2 bushels per acre and concerns over the pace of export commitments. Joe Janzen expressed concern that final marketing-year corn exports will lag USDA projections because the U.S. lacks the massive surplus supply seen in prior years. Naomi Blohm and Greg Johnson emphasized that corn prices appeared deeply oversold, with front-month contracts hovering around the critical $4.50 support benchmark and Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels dipping into the low 20s. Field reports highlighted significant spatial yield variability: while soybean yields across east-central Illinois and the Midwest set exceptional marks (frequently eclipsing 74 to 77 bushels per acre, with double-crop soybeans approaching 60 bushels), corn yields were widely uneven, coming in 20 to 25 bushels below prior-year levels in areas plagued by excessive early summer rainfall. December corn futures closed the week slightly under pressure at $4.47¾.

Wheat markets experienced prolonged selling pressure, dropping nearly 24% since early September highs before establishing a narrow floor near the $6.00 mark. Naomi Blohm observed that wheat was technically oversold, with the market lacking any built-in Black Sea geopolitical risk premium, particularly as the USDA attaché projected a larger Australian wheat crop. Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting) noted an extreme fundamental disconnect: while crude oil surged roughly 21% in October on supply constraints in the Middle East and drone attacks on Russian refineries, soft red winter wheat shed roughly 9% over the same period. Zuzolo highlighted that the Black Sea grain corridor discussions and Russian naval convoy announcements had kept grain supplies artificially discounted despite vessel sinkings off the Romanian coast and private Chinese inquiries into U.S. soft red winter wheat. In livestock, Naomi Blohm reviewed a friendly USDA Cattle on Feed report confirming that the national herd is not expanding—highlighted by September placements plunging 12% year-over-year to 1.77 million head, setting a record monthly low since data collection began in 1996.

The Commodity Week panel, featuring Shane Holtorf (Logic Ag Marketing) and Garrett Toay (AgTraderTalk.com), contextualized these weekly market movements within broader producer risk management strategies. Both analysts agreed that despite sharp headline drops—spurred by the Brazilian election outcome, the October USDA report, and heavy fund selling—underlying balance-sheet fundamentals had not materially worsened. U.S. ending stocks remain meaningfully tighter than the prior marketing year, and global demand into Asia remains competitive via the Pacific Northwest due to elevated ocean freight and fuel costs elsewhere. Facing sharp basis drops at commercial facilities, both Holtorf and Toay strongly advised producers against panic selling at harvest lows. Instead, they recommended utilizing on-farm storage, locking in market carries across the forward curve, and patiently waiting for post-harvest recovery bounces or late-winter pricing opportunities rather than dumping grain onto an oversold market.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Agricultural meteorological coverage throughout the week tracked the transition from an unseasonably warm, dry harvest stretch in the U.S. Corn Belt toward an active, disruptive precipitation regime, alongside emerging weather risks across international growing regions. Mark Russo (Everstream Analytics) opened the week describing highly favorable field conditions across the eastern Corn Belt that facilitated swift corn and soybean harvest progress, while early scattered rains began moving into the western Corn Belt across South Dakota, Nebraska, and western Iowa. Don Day (Day Weather) and Drew Lerner (World Weather Inc.) confirmed that this prolonged open window had reached its final days. Both forecasters tracked a complex, organizing low-pressure system emerging from the Pacific and southern Rockies, which was projected to bring a series of frontal passages across the Plains and Midwest.

By late week, Mike Tannura (Tstorm Weather) detailed the progression of this system, forecasting a widespread rainfall event delivering 1 to 2 inches of precipitation across the Midwest from Monday through Wednesday. While Tannura noted that this moisture would temporarily halt harvest, conditions were expected to dry out rapidly behind the front, offering improved field access later in the month. Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions) analyzed the atmospheric dynamics driving the pattern, debunking sensational social media reports regarding an unprecedented early split in the polar vortex. Snodgrass explained that while the polar vortex split was indeed the earliest on record, it carried no immediate risk of a severe Arctic blast because there was no established reservoir of subfreezing air built over northern Canada. Consequently, the system would merely transition the Midwest out of record-breaking October warmth (featuring persistent 70- and 80-degree temperatures) and return temperatures to seasonal November norms, with daytime highs in the 50s and overnight lows near freezing. Snodgrass noted this mild finish would delay 4-inch soil temperatures from dropping consistently below the critical 50-degree threshold required for fall anhydrous ammonia applications until at least November 6 or 7.

For domestic winter wheat, weather conditions diverged significantly by region. Mike Tannura, Mark Russo, and Drew Lerner reported that the hard red winter wheat areas across the central and southern Plains were experiencing one of the wettest autumns on record, with frequent rain systems and mild temperatures driving favorable emergence and early crop establishment. In contrast, the soft red winter wheat regions across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana had faced severe dryness and creeping drought conditions over the preceding 90 days. Forecasters agreed that the incoming early November low-pressure system would provide eastern soft red fields with a much-needed, deep soaking to establish stands before winter dormancy sets in. Drew Lerner also noted that the Delta and Southeast, which had suffered from extended dryness, would begin catching relief rains ahead of winter, consistent with prevailing El Niño dynamics.

Internationally, South American crop regions presented sharply contrasting conditions driven by an ongoing El Niño weather pattern. Across southern Brazil—including Paraná, Santa Catarina, and neighboring Paraguay—heavy, persistent rains produced excessive soil moisture and localized river flooding, which repeatedly disrupted soybean and corn planting progress, as reported by Mark Russo, Don Day, and Mike Tannura. Conversely, Drew Lerner and Eric Snodgrass raised red flags regarding the center-west growing regions of Brazil, including Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás. While early planting progressed rapidly on initial showers, subsoil and topsoil moisture reserves quickly dried out. Both meteorologists warned that erratic, lighter-than-normal precipitation, combined with high heat and Amazon rainfall deficits, creates serious yield risks for center-west crops during their critical mid-summer flowering and pod-fill windows in December and January. In Argentina, Drew Lerner and Mike Tannura observed that the spring growing season had unfolded favorably, characterized by timely rains across primary grain belts and one of the coolest Octobers in 50 years, which kept crop water demand low. Across Europe, Mark Russo and Drew Lerner noted that light-to-moderate showers had provided temporary topsoil moisture and slight improvements to low water levels on the Rhine River, but extended subsoil deficits persisted in Western Europe, the Danube River basin, and southern Russia, where winter crops urgently require follow-up moisture before entering winter dormancy.

The Week’s News and Other Items

USDA Crop Production Error and State-Level Revisions: On Friday, October 23, USDA issued an unusual correction to its September Crop Production report, citing a data processing error that affected corn plant populations and ear counts in Nebraska and Kansas. The National Agricultural Statistics Service adjusted Nebraska’s September corn yield estimate upward from 177 to 182 bushels per acre, while Kansas’s yield estimate was lowered from 121 to 118 bushels per acre. These state-level modifications shifted the September national average corn yield from 178.5 to 178.8 bushels per acre, adding roughly 26 million bushels to the national production baseline. NASS reviewed and validated the October crop figures without change, keeping the national corn yield at 181.2 bushels per acre and total output at 16.3 billion bushels. While the correction mathematically halved the apparent month-over-month yield leap for Nebraska between September and October, it did not alter current October balance sheets or affect upcoming November releases. Nonetheless, Joe Janzen and Garrett Toay noted that the incident rattled producer confidence and fueled ongoing scrutiny regarding USDA resources and survey staffing.

The 1st Annual International Miscanthus Summit: This week University of Illinois crop scientists hosted the first annual International Miscanthus Summit, bringing together academic researchers, producers, and commercial industry leaders to explore the potential of the high-yielding perennial grass. Organizer Emily Heaton, professor of crop sciences at the University of Illinois, highlighted miscanthus as the most productive biomass crop known for Midwest latitudes and temperatures, noting its capacity to generate high-quality biomass for building materials, compostable food packaging, and animal bedding. Heaton noted that dedicating roughly 5% of cropland—specifically marginal, flood-prone, or economically underperforming acreage—to miscanthus could meet existing industrial demand while significantly reducing nitrate and phosphorus runoff and building deep soil organic carbon. Andy VanLoocke, agricultural meteorologist from Iowa State University, discussed long-term agronomic trials showing that after an initial yield peak in years two and three, miscanthus stands stabilize into a steady production state that persists reliably for over 15 years. VanLoocke explained that miscanthus cycles and stores nitrogen within its underground rhizome system over the winter, enabling it to emerge aggressively in the spring and sustain production for over a decade without added synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. He added that the crop thrives best where a hard freeze terminates fall growth, and highlighted the University of Iowa’s commercial initiative pelletizing locally grown miscanthus to replace coal in its campus power plant.

150th Anniversary Tour of the Morrow Plots: University of Illinois marked the 150th anniversary of the Morrow Plots this past week—the world’s oldest continuous crop rotation experiment, established in 1876 just south of the main quad in Urbana-Champaign. Plot Director and crop scientist Andrew Margenot led a commemorative audio tour detailing the three test sections: continuous corn on the northern third, a two-year rotation (originally corn-oats, transitioned to corn-soybeans in 1968) in the center, and a three-year rotation of corn, oats, and alfalfa on the southern third. Margenot illustrated how rotation alone can more than triple corn yields without fertilizer inputs, while rotating crops in combination with modern NPK applications boosts yields from 20 bushels per acre in unfertilized continuous corn experiment up to 320 bushels per acre in the three-year rotation. Margenot also shared modern isotopic research revealing that native prairie soils historically contained 10% to 15% organic matter in the top six inches, whereas managed plots now range from 3% in depleted continuous corn to 7%–8% in fertilized three-way rotations. Carbon-dating analysis showed that the residual organic carbon in the plots averages 2,200 years old, with 60% of the carbon in continuous corn still originating from native prairie vegetation rather than modern crop residues. Margenot stressed that because organic matter supplies roughly half the nitrogen needed for Midwest corn and soybean production, long-term soil stewardship must proactively protect this relic prairie resource.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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2026 Illinois Farm Economics Summit
Challenging Environment, Tight Margins
https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/ifes

This year’s series of IFES meetings will update attendees on the current state of the Midwest farm economy and discuss the challenges and opportunities currently facing farmers. Despite improved pricing prospects, producers continue to operate in a challenging environment of tight margins. Production costs have continued to rise and remain subject to significant uncertainty and volatility due to ongoing geopolitical developments. At the same time, changes to biofuels and 45z tax policy may create market opportunities for grains and oilseeds produced in ways that allow biofuel producers to qualify for low-carbon fuel tax credits.

Click here for more information and to register for the four mid-December meetings. IFES is scheduled for the week of December 14 in Mt. Vernon, Sherman, Peoria, and DeKalb.

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WILLAg.org Calendar

November
10 – WASDE and Crop Production Report
13 – Conab Brazil Release
17 – farmdoc Webinar | Final Look at the 2026 ARC/PLC Decision

December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention
26-27 – Illinois Soybean Summit

March
09 – All Day Ag Outlook at the Beef House

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Garrett Toay from AgTraderTalk.com and Shane Holtorf of Logic Ag Marketing.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.