WILLAg Radio Week 43 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending October 23, 2026.

WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of agricultural markets, research, and weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Heavy managed money fund liquidation and harvest pressure weighed on corn and soybean prices throughout the week, though strong export data eventually provided a market floor. Brian Beckler of Total Farm Marketing and Ben Brown of the University of Missouri noted that disappointing September NOPA crush numbers and bearish USDA reports triggered the initial sell-offs. However, Matt Bennett of AgMarket highlighted a late-week rebound driven by massive soybean export sales approaching 3 million tons, primarily to China, alongside a surprise flash sale to Spain. During the Commodity Week program, Mike Castle of StoneX and Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge contextualized these moves, warning that non-China global demand remains sluggish due to cheap Brazilian competition. They emphasized that robust domestic soybean crush demand, fueled heavily by the biofuel sector, has maintained unexpectedly strong basis levels during the harvest window. On the farm level, Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing reported that central Illinois corn yields are down roughly 30 bushels from last year, exacerbating profitability concerns amid doubled diesel fuel costs. Globally, Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting observed a divergence between crude oil and wheat price action.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

A persistent dry and warm pattern across the central and eastern Corn Belt provided an exceptional harvest window, though the mild temperatures kept soils above the 50-degree threshold required for fall anhydrous ammonia applications. Don Day of Day Weather and Mark Russo of Everstream Analytics tracked this open harvest weather, emphasizing that rapid field progress would continue across the Midwest before conditions shift. Looking ahead, Eric Snodgrass of Nutrien Ag Solutions forecast that an active subtropical jet stream will likely introduce heavier precipitation by November. In the Plains, Mike Tannura of Tstorm Weather reported that the hard red winter wheat crop received heavy, beneficial rains for winter establishment, while soft red winter wheat regions further east remained dry. Internationally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. highlighted that a strong El Niño is driving widespread rainfall across Brazil and Argentina, facilitating rapid soybean planting. However, Snodgrass cautioned that the persistent El Niño pattern elevates the risk of rapid flash droughts in Brazil during the critical growing months of December and January.

The Week’s News and Other Items

Resampling 1861 Prairie Site to Measure Soil Change: Researchers are resampling the state’s oldest soil test site, originally sampled in 1861, to measure more than a century of agricultural impacts. Soil scientists Kevin McSweeney and Sam Indorante explained that this effort acts as a time capsule, allowing experts to track physical and chemical changes caused by decades of tillage and fertilization, which is critical for future land-use decisions.

Crop Size and Feed Usage, a Question or Two: Former USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer now with the University of Missouri analyzed whether the record 2025 corn crop was overstated, suggesting statistical errors might be hiding in the USDA’s feed and residual category. Meyer also noted that consumer meat demand is shifting due to GLP-1 medications, driving a preference for smaller portions of high-quality beef and protein-dense chicken.

A Fungal Disease of Soybeans is Moving Northward: A fungal disease known as Neocosmospora stem rot, which closely resembles red crown rot, has officially progressed northward into Illinois and Missouri soybean fields. The University of Illinois Plant Clinic is requesting whole-plant samples from farmers to better track the disease’s spread and its potential impact on yield.

USDA Announces Diesel Fuel Relief Package: The USDA is preparing a harvest fuel relief program that could distribute $8 billion to farmers before year’s end to offset elevated diesel and fertilizer costs, potentially pushing total 2026 government farm payments to a record $55.4 billion. Concurrently, Senate Republicans are attempting to attach a new farm bill to an end-of-year legislative vessel, such as a rural health or defense authorization bill, to prevent the measure from slipping into a new Congress.

A Natural Cut for your Grilled Cheese Sandwich: Sargento has successfully developed a natural cut American cheese slice designed to replicate the exact melt and texture of processed cheese without utilizing artificial emulsifying salts.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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2026 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Set
Challenging Environment, Tight Margins
https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/ifes

This year’s series of IFES meetings will update attendees on the current state of the Midwest farm economy and discuss the challenges and opportunities currently facing farmers. Despite improved pricing prospects, producers continue to operate in a challenging environment of tight margins. Production costs have continued to rise and remain subject to significant uncertainty and volatility due to ongoing geopolitical developments. At the same time, changes to biofuels and tax policy may create market opportunities for grains and oilseeds produced in ways that allow biofuel producers to qualify for low-carbon fuel tax credits.

Click here for more information and to register for the four mid-December meetings. IFES is scheduled for the week of December 14 in Mt. Vernon, Sherman, Peoria, and DeKalb.

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WILLAg.org Calendar

October
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots

December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

 

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention
26-27 – Illinois Soybean Summit

March
09 – All Day Ag Outlook at the Beef House

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Mike Castle from StoneX and Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.