WILLAg Radio Week 42 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending October 16, 2026.

WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of agricultural markets, research, and weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Dominant market trends across the week centered on technical price erosion, speculative fund liquidation, harvest pressure, and mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Grains and oilseeds faced broad downward momentum as December corn drifted from early-week levels around to close the week down at $4.74 1/4. November soybeans retreated to $12.61 1/4. Soft red winter wheat mirrored the sell-off, briefly setting a nine-week high before tumbling to fresh one-week lows at $6.60 1/2. Frayne Olson (North Dakota State University Extension) observed that futures markets overreacted following the October WASDE report, which unexpectedly raised corn yield projections—primarily across Western Plains transition states such as Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas—while ending stocks hovered near the pivotal 10% carryover threshold. Adding to supply side clarity, Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing) noted that the soybean harvest across East Central Illinois was nearly 90% complete with exceptional yields in the 70s to 90s, spurring active farmer selling across the scale, whereas early corn yields lagged 20 to 25 bushels behind the previous year. Matt Bennett (AgMarket) confirmed this yield divergence, reporting that rapid dry-down across central Illinois allowed crops to come out of the field quickly, but noted that disappointing crush figures below 200 million bushels and speculative fund liquidation exacerbated technical sell-offs.

On the broader discussion during the Commodity Week broadcast, Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing), Chip Nellinger (Blue Reef Agri-Marketing), and Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting) evaluated the spillover effects of outside markets, currency volatility, and shifting managed money positions. Naomi Blohm highlighted that crude oil has formed a coiling pennant flag between $70 and $120 per barrel, suggesting a potential $50 breakout toward $150 or down to $50 depending on Middle East geopolitical friction, while noting that Class III milk futures surged nearly $2 over a two-week span due to pre-holiday spot cheese demand. Mike Zuzolo and Chip Nellinger stressed that speculative funds have aggressively unwound record net-long positions across soybeans, meal, and corn, while rising freight rates, persistent inflation, and Middle East conflict are constraining global trade. Chip Nellinger cautioned that excessive energy spikes could destroy global aggregate demand and emphasized monitoring fluctuations in the Brazilian Real alongside upcoming elections. Mike Zuzolo noted that export demand faced severe drag—underscored by a 40% drop in soybean export sales below the four-week average and soft red wheat losing ground on reports that Russia is developing an alternative Baltic export rail-and-port route handling 3 to 3.5 million tons. Outside the grain complex, live and feeder cattle encountered resistance at their 100-day and 200-day moving averages as funds showed hesitation amid sluggish wholesale adjustments, high beef imports, and slow herd rebuilding.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Weather forecasts evolved from early-season summer warmth into a sharp, widespread autumnal transition defined by a strong cold front, localized rainfall swaths, and early-season freezes across North America, contrasted with extreme rainfall and El Niño patterns across South America. Don Day (Day Weather) detailed the progression of a subtropical moisture plume emerging from Mexico across the central and southern Plains into the Midwest, delivering 1 to 2 inches of rainfall to Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, accompanied by a Rocky Mountain system that triggered snow across high elevations and drove freezing conditions into the Dakotas, western Nebraska, and the Northwest Corn Belt. Drew Lerner (World Weather Inc.) noted that while this rainfall interrupted a brisk Midwestern harvest window—which had allowed Minnesota producers to combine 43% of their soybean crop in a single week—the brief frost and freeze across the northern Plains would prove beneficial in terminating growth and accelerating crop maturation. In the Southern Plains winter wheat belt, Drew Lerner and Mike Tannura (Tstorm Weather) tracked heavy downpours exceeding 6 inches across key production regions of western Oklahoma, which temporarily stalled sowing operations already lagging behind average, though Mike Tannura indicated that the accumulated subsoil moisture will strongly benefit the hard red winter wheat crop over the winter months.

Evaluating the Corn Belt harvest window late in the week, Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions) reported that the potent cold front brought wind gusts of 30 to 40-plus miles per hour and widespread frost advisories, raising concerns over late stalk integrity. However, Eric Snodgrass and Mike Tannura confirmed that a rapid rebound into mild, dry conditions would provide an open 6-to-8-day harvest window, though Snodgrass warned that rebounding air temperatures will keep soil temperatures above the critical 50-degree threshold, delaying fall anhydrous ammonia applications until early November. Internationally, weather models tracked an exceptionally powerful El Niño pattern dominating South America. Drew Lerner and Mike Tannura reported that southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, and southwestern Paraná were saturated down three feet into the soil profile from persistent torrential rains, causing localized flooding and damaging the Brazilian wheat crop, though a brief five-day drying interval offered necessary respite. Conversely, in center-west Brazil and Mato Grosso, Mike Tannura and Eric Snodgrass observed that unseasonal southern frontal passages provided timely moisture and cool conditions that accelerated soybean planting ahead of normal, setting up favorable conditions for an early safrinha corn crop despite questions regarding how the broader Amazonian monsoon will behave later in the season.

The Week’s News and Other Items

Fall 2026 Nitrogen Application and Soil Management: At an educational panel hosted by the University of Illinois Extension and the Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association (IFCA), campus-based soil scientist John Jones emphasized that producers must wait for 4-inch soil temperatures to drop to 50 degrees and trend downward before applying fall anhydrous ammonia to prevent rapid conversion to nitrate and subsequent leaching. Dan Schaefer of the IFCA referenced Illinois Nutrient Research and Education Council (NREC) findings showing that unseasonably warm autumns cause October-applied nitrogen to turn entirely into leachable nitrate by March 1, polluting municipal waterways like Lake Decatur and Lake Springfield, and noted that Douglas County research since 2013 demonstrates that fall applications remain a leakier system even when using nitrification inhibitors. U of I agricultural economist Nick Paulson and Piatt County farmer Eric Miller stressed that waiting for the 50-degree soil benchmark requires operational discipline and flexible risk management, noting that growers should prepare contingency plans for spring applications or sidedressing if wet late-fall weather prevents compliant application. John Jones highlighted upcoming published NREC research revealing that spring-applied anhydrous achieved an optimum nitrogen rate 16 to 20 pounds per acre lower than 100% fall applications.

Global Fertilizer Supply Disruptions: Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer for StoneX, reported that international nitrogen and fertilizer markets face severe upward pricing pressure following recent military attacks and ongoing conflict involving Iran. Because major global urea, anhydrous ammonia, and phosphate exporters—specifically Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—ship through the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions to energy corridors and curtailed natural gas distribution are still directly elevating global feedstock costs and suppressing European nitrogen production.

Global Diesel Shortage and Middle East Infrastructure Attacks: The International Energy Agency projected that the global diesel shortage sparked by conflict in the Middle East will persist well into 2027. Compounding supply stresses, the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh was disrupted when Iran-aligned Houthi forces conducted a drone strike on the nearby international airport, killing 13 people and injuring over 300, leading chief executives from ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and TotalEnergies to withdraw from the event. Addressing the remaining assembly, the CEO of Saudi Aramco warned that infrastructure assaults threaten the region holding over 90% of global spare oil capacity, directly tightening global crude and distillate fuel markets.

Clean Air Act DEF Sensor Pardons: Speaking at an Alaska campaign rally, President Donald Trump announced executive pardons for individuals convicted of Clean Air Act violations involving the removal of Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) emissions sensors, with the Department of Justice confirming seven total recipients, three from Alaska. While the EPA previously relaxed compliance rules by permitting software updates utilizing NOx sensors in place of DEF sensors on existing engines, the agency reiterated that completely removing or bypassing exhaust emissions sensors remains a federal crime.

White House Foreign Beef Import Quotas: Beef industry consultant Nevil Speer (Bowling Green, Kentucky) evaluated the federal administration’s plan to import 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free foreign beef, labeling the initiative an ineffective “nothingburger” for retail consumers. Initial trade data indicated that only about 30,000 metric tons arrived in September—a third of the expected initial monthly tranche—primarily consisting of lean trimmings for ground beef that did not noticeably reduce grocery store hamburger prices. The lean beef imports are needed to offset the heaiver (read more fat) beef cattle going to market in the United States. Nevil Speer noted that retail supply chains adapt slowly and that consumers remain far more concerned with everyday price spikes in diesel and gasoline than the cost of ground beef.

GLP-1 Medications and Animal Protein Demand: At the Chicago Federal Reserve’s Midwest Agriculture Conference, CoBank Lead Animal Protein Analyst Brian Earnest examined how the adoption of GLP-1 medications—now present in an estimated one in four U.S. households—is altering domestic meat consumption patterns. Survey data indicates GLP-1 users prioritize smaller, nutrient-dense meals with high protein ratios, fueling demand for poultry and leaner cuts of premium beef, such as 4-ounce portions of high-quality ground beef. Because domestic cattle carcasses are finishing with heavier fat content, this dietary shift is driving increased U.S. imports of lean foreign beef trimmings to blend into commercial ground beef.

AgMarket Corporate Growth and Restructuring: Jim McCormick, Chief Operating Officer and co-founder of AgMarket, outlined the company’s recent expansion and formal rebrand from AgMarket.net. Celebrating seven years of operation, the firm has restructured as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker (GIB) clearing trades directly through StoneX, combining full-service commodity brokerage, customized marketing consulting, and specialized insurance divisions offering USDA Risk Management Agency-backed multi-peril crop insurance and Livestock Risk Protection (LRP). AgMarket co-founder Matt Bennett is a regular contributer to WILLAg.org, airing each Thursday during the Closing Market Report.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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The Morrow Plots at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign is celebrating 150 years as America’s longest continuous agricultural experiment.

Established in 1875 by Professor Manley Miles after visiting England’s Rothamsted plots, the experiment was created to generate location-specific data for Illinois agriculture, disproving the assumption that prairie soils could sustain crops indefinitely without treatment. Originally featuring crop rotation experiments under George Morrow, the plots were gradually reduced as campus expanded, leaving three rotation treatments: continuous corn, corn-soybean rotation, and corn-oats-alfalfa. Current research includes greenhouse gas emissions monitoring and advanced soil imaging comparable to medical MRI, revealing pore structures and earthworm networks after 149 years of management.

The Morrow Plots’ success inspired the newer Alma Mater Plots, which study subsurface drainage and real-time environmental measurements to address contemporary agricultural challenges.

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WILLAg.org Calendar

October
22 – farmdoc Webinar | First Look at the ARC/PLC Decision for 2026
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots

December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention
26-27 – Illinois Soybean Summit

March
09 – All Day Ag Outlook at the Beef House

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing, Chip Nellinger from Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, and Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.