WILLAg Radio Week 41 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending October 9, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

The commodity markets experienced significant volatility this week, primarily driven by technical positioning and unexpected data from the USDA’s October Crop Production and WASDE reports. Early in the week, Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) noted a “Turnaround Tuesday” rally across corn, soybeans, and wheat, fueled by technical buying and hopes for a downward revision in corn yields. However, this optimism was upended on Friday when the USDA unexpectedly raised the national corn yield estimate by 2.7 bushels to 181.2 bushels per acre, heavily influenced by an 11-bushel increase in Nebraska. This upward revision pushed projected corn ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels, triggering a sharp sell-off in the corn market.

Conversely, the soybean market saw a more neutral report, with a minor yield adjustment to 53.1 bushels per acre, keeping prices relatively stable despite spillover pressure from corn. The Commodity Week panel, featuring Logan Kimmel (Roach Ag Marketing), Ellen Dearden (AgReview), and Jim McCormick (AgMarket.net), discussed the fallout from the bearish corn data. Despite the immediate market shock and harvest-time pressure, the panelists advised producers against panic selling. They highlighted underlying macroeconomic factors, including energy inflation, high diesel prices, and potential South American crop risks tied to a building El Niño, which could provide longer-term price support into the winter.

Prior to the report, Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) highlighted localized spikes in soybean basis bids due to rain-delayed harvests, urging producers to capitalize on these temporary premiums. Greg Johnson (TGM) observed that Illinois soybean yields were strong, but corn yields were disappointing due to prior weather damage. Matt Bennett (AgMarket.net) echoed these sentiments, noting that favorable dry-down weather accelerated harvest progress, with soybeans generally outperforming corn yields relative to expectations. Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting) pointed out that the USDA’s upward revisions to both domestic and global corn yields ran counter to recent market trends and created new headwinds for prices, emphasizing the need for a low in the wheat market to provide support for corn.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Agricultural weather patterns shifted significantly this week, transitioning from excessive moisture to a drier trend that facilitated harvest progress. Early in the week, Mark Russo (EverStream Analytics) forecasted a shift to warmer and drier conditions across the Midwest, expected to aid harvest progress through late October, while noting favorable early planting conditions across South America despite wetness in southern Brazil.

By the end of the week, Joshua Nagelberg (CropProphet) outlined an incoming wet pattern for the western Corn Belt, potentially bringing two to three times the normal rainfall to areas like Nebraska and Kansas. Nagelberg also evaluated the impact of the El Niño weather event on South American crops, noting mixed signals for Brazil but a stronger correlation between El Niño and above-trend soybean yields in Argentina due to increased rainfall.

The 2026 Illinois Extension Fall Fertilizer Conversation panel discusses the importance of waiting for soil temperatures to fall below 50 degrees and consistently trend downward before applying fall anhydrous ammonia.

Applying nitrogen too early, even when utilizing nitrification inhibitors, risks significant conversion to nitrate and subsequent leaching, particularly given recent trends of warm Decembers and excessively wet springs. Nitrification inhibitors act as a temporary insurance policy rather than a foolproof solution, and their efficacy is exhausted prematurely if subjected to extended warm periods. Consequently, adopting a portfolio approach—such as shifting portions of nitrogen application to the spring or utilizing in-season sidedress strategies—can mitigate weather-related nutrient losses and improve overall maximum return to nitrogen (MRTN).

Economic pressures and volatile input costs make data-driven application rates essential for preserving profit margins without sacrificing yield. For phosphorus (P) and potassium (K), the panel advises against panic applications during wet falls or when fertilizer prices are prohibitively high, provided routine soil tests indicate adequate maintenance levels. Research demonstrates that maintaining P levels allows farmers the flexibility to safely skip applications during high-priced years without incurring yield penalties. Furthermore, agronomic experts recommend relying on soil test parts-per-million or pounds-per-acre metrics rather than base saturation percentages for determining potassium rates, as base saturation interpretations lack reliability across diverse soil textures and cation exchange capacities.

The Week’s News and Other Items

Diesel Fuel Executive Order: President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order deferring taxes and waiving penalties on highway use of red-dyed diesel for truckers and farmers. Mr. Trump, late in the week, also announced a deal with Russia which allows it to release diesel fuel onto the world market without the sanctions the U.S. Congress gave the President the power to impose last month. The White House has posted a news item showing broad support for the efforts. The price of ultra low sulfur diesel on the NYMEX dropped about three percent (14 cents) Friday on the news. The daily trading limit is 15%. The weekly close, despite the down day Friday, was up 5.27%.

Data Centers, a new farm country neighbor: Bernt Nelson (American Farm Bureau Federation) discussed the rapid expansion of data centers into rural America, addressing the balance between high financial offers for landowners and the permanent loss of productive farmland, alongside agriculture’s increasing dependence on data storage.

Extension’s Independent Grocer Summit: Sean Park (Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs, Western Illinois University) highlighted the challenging operational landscape for independent grocery stores, which average a slim 1% net profit margin. Park emphasized that these grocers can remain competitive by strictly monitoring unsold inventory, embedding themselves in the community, and developing destination-worthy meat departments.

Alltech’s World without Cows Film: Michelle Michael and Brandon Whitworth discussed their documentary “World Without Cows,” which explores the complex cultural, economic, and environmental roles cattle play worldwide. They emphasized the need for nuanced, non-polarizing conversations about agricultural sustainability and the diverse goals of global producers.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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WILLAg.org Calendar

October
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots

December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Ellen Dearden of AgReview, Logan Kimmel from Roach Ag, and Jim McCormick at AgMarket.net.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.