Apr 03 | Weather Update and Market Review

We had a warm and wet end to March and start to April across the prairie state. Average temperatures this week ranged from the high 40s in northern Illinois to the high 50s in southern Illinois, between 4 and 10 degrees above normal.

by Trent Ford, State Climatologist
ISWS PRI University of Illinois

Some of the more impressive high temperatures this week included 93 degrees in Jacksonville and 88 in Champaign. March ended around 6 degrees warmer than normal statewide, and was the warmest March since 2012. However, last month was still a full 6 degrees cooler than the average temperature in 2012, which illustrates just how extreme March 2012 was.

We had another very wet week across central and parts of northern Illinois. 7-day totals ranged from around half an inch in northwest Illinois to isolated pockets of over 5 inches in central Illinois. The recent wetter weather has substantially improved drought conditions across central Illinois, and we saw the US Drought Monitor remove extreme drought in this week’s map, the first time east-central Illinois has been without extreme drought since early October. That same Drought Monitor map, though, did expand some moderate drought in southern Illinois due to drier conditions over the last two weeks. The drought whack-a-mole continues in Illinois.

Looking ahead, temperatures will moderate a bit this weekend, with highs only stretching into the 50s statewide. Jackets are recommended for all of those egghunts on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, we will see some additional rainfall across the state on Friday and Saturday before clearer conditions emerge early next week. 7-day rainfall totals are between 1 and 2 inches statewide. The newest outlooks for mid to late April still show a warmer and wetter tilt across the state, indicating a continuation of much of what we saw in late March.

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WILLAg.org radio programming and review for the work week ending April 3, 2026  
by Todd E. Gleason, Extension Farm Broadcaster
University of Illinois

Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Curt Kimmel from AgMarket.net, Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing, and Greg Johnson of TGM, Total Grain Marketing.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.

Market Volatility and USDA Reports
The release of the March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports provided the primary fundamental direction for the week. The agency reported intended corn acreage at 95.3 million acres, a 3% decrease from the previous year, while soybean acreage is expected to rise 4% to 84.7 million acres. Market reaction to the figures was largely neutral for corn and slightly friendly for soybeans, failing to ignite a significant rally . Analysts noted that December corn struggled to break the $5.00 mark due to heavy old crop hedge pressure , while a massive South American crop continues to limit upward momentum for soybeans. Despite the lack of bullish news, investment funds have transitioned from heavily short positions earlier in the year to near-record lengths in soybeans .

Geopolitics, Energy, and RVOs
Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, heavily influenced macro markets and raised concerns over long-term inflation and input costs . Damage to infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to keep diesel prices elevated, directly impacting transportation and agricultural input costs . Domestically, the EPA finalized record-high Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027. This mandate is projected to require roughly half of the global supply of eligible fats and oils by 2027, pushing U.S. soybean crush capacity to its absolute limits, although the soybean market initially reacted with a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” sell-off .

Extreme Weather in the Plains
The hard red winter wheat crop in the Central and Southern Plains is facing critical conditions due to severe drought and unseasonable heat . The seven-month period from September through March ranks as the warmest in more than 130 years for Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Approximately 30% of the wheat crop in this region has received no spring rainfall . Meteorologists warn that the crop is running out of time and desperately requires a direct hit of heavy rain within one to two weeks to survive .

Planting Conditions and Agronomy
In contrast to the Plains, the Midwest and Mid-South are entering an active, wet weather pattern with forecasted rainfall totals of two to four inches . While these systems will delay early fieldwork and lower soil temperatures, the moisture is largely viewed as beneficial for replenishing soil profiles, and the lengthy planting window minimizes immediate concerns . Internationally, heavy late-season rains in Argentina have overly saturated fields, posing quality risks to the unharvested sunseed crop .

Agronomically, Precision Conservation Management (PCM) data indicates that farmers exhibit high consistency in their practices year-over-year; they are generally reluctant to alter nitrogen management on a single-field trial basis, though they show more willingness to experiment with cover crops .

Livestock and Agricultural Technology
The livestock sector is navigating localized supply chain disruptions, notably a worker strike at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colorado, which has forced fat cattle to be reallocated to facilities in Texas and Nebraska . Despite this, cattle futures posted consecutive gains, supported by lower feed costs and anticipation of the summer cookout season .

The USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report showed a slight year-over-year inventory increase, alongside a record 11.9 pigs per litter, indicating high herd productivity .

In agricultural technology, artificial intelligence is streamlining farm loan underwriting, reducing costs and accelerating the application process for producers . Additionally, the EPA granted a waiver for faulty Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) sensors, preventing costly equipment downtime during the critical spring planting season .