Apr 17 | WILLAg Business Week Edition

WILLAg.org Radio Programming for the work week ending April 17, 2026

Geopolitical Shocks and the Nitrogen Price Squeeze
Agricultural markets this week experienced significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, high input costs, and shifting weather patterns. A primary concern discussed throughout the week is the likelihood of farmers shifting acres from corn to soybeans due to the high costs and uncertain availability of nitrogen fertilizers. Early in the week, Curt Kimmel observed that unconfirmed rumors about U.S. and Iran blockades impacted the markets, causing a downside price reversal in soybeans while corn and wheat moved higher on spread unwinding. Naomi Blohm added Tuesday that U.S. soybean planting is outpacing corn in some regions, a trend potentially linked to these elevated fertilizer costs. She also noted that a temporary removal of war premiums—following news of potential U.S.-Iran talks—caused crude oil prices to drop, which in turn weighed on corn and soybean futures. Greg Johnson pointed out that although corn broke a four-week losing streak, prices remain stuck in the middle of their trading range, prompting farmers to hold onto old crop inventories. He also emphasized that while domestic soybean crush is strong, export demand must increase to maintain market balance. Later in the week, Matt Bennett warned that the corn market is consolidating as farmers focus on planting, but extreme fertilizer prices—with anhydrous ammonia running between $1,100 and $1,200—combined with persistent wet weather in the north, could lead to a substantial loss of corn acres by June. Finally, Mike Zuzolo highlighted pressures in the livestock sector, explaining that falling energy prices and high retail beef costs pose a significant threat to summer grilling demand ahead of the Cattle on Feed report (released 3pm central Friday). However, Zuzolo remains optimistic that grains are building a solid base, supported by weather threats and a weakening U.S. dollar.

Hydrologic Whiplash: The Wet East and Dry West Divide
The dominant meteorological narrative this week is a stalled “wet east, dry west” pattern that is simultaneously stressing winter wheat crops and delaying Corn Belt planting. Mark Russo established early on that the western Hard Red Winter Wheat regions—including Kansas, Colorado, Texas, and Oklahoma—have missed out on meaningful precipitation, while the northern Midwest has faced wet conditions that threaten to slow fieldwork. Russo also reported that rain is slowing Argentina’s harvest, whereas Brazil’s safrinha corn areas are turning drier. Don Day confirmed that a stuck pipeline of moisture from Texas to the Great Lakes is bringing significant rain to Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. He urged patience for the High Plains, noting that their primary wet season traditionally does not arrive until late May and June. Drew Lerner highlighted extreme hydrologic whiplash in these High Plains, where the winter wheat crop endured temperatures in the 80s and 90s before facing an impending hard freeze with temperatures expected to drop into the 20s. Lerner also noted that Europe and the Black Sea region are currently experiencing favorable spring planting conditions. Mike Tannura quantified the severity of the western drought, stating that 41% of the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop received less than a quarter of its normal rainfall over the past 30 days. Tannura additionally pointed out a sharp divide in the Soft Red Winter Wheat belt, contrasting historic wetness in Michigan with drought conditions in the Mid-South and Southeast. Closing out the week, Eric Snodgrass attributed the Midwest’s severe weather and anomalous precipitation patterns to an expanding Bermuda High and a developing El Niño. Snodgrass warned of an incoming cold front that will bring frost risks to the Midwest. Looking forward, he noted that while summer weather models remain mixed, historical analogs for strong El Niño years have not always resulted in disastrous crop yields for the region.

Biofuel Policy Push: SAF and the Drive for Year-Round E15
This week’s agricultural news highlighted significant policy and market development efforts surrounding biofuels. Lorrie Boyer reported on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Coalition, which is focusing on federal advocacy to promote American feedstocks. Alison Graab and Tom Michels emphasized that these efforts aim to secure the U.S. position as a leader in SAF production, building a resilient market that utilizes existing infrastructure. Additionally, there is a renewed political push for year-round E15 gasoline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senator Charles Grassley are framing the approval of E15 as a national security issue, linking the need for domestic fuel directly to the ongoing Iran war and the rising costs of inputs like urea and diesel. Troy Braydencamp of the Renewable Fuels Association argued that approving E15 would immediately alleviate inflation at the pump for motorists while providing critical new income streams for farmers who are facing another year of negative margins.

*Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts for the week and formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool Gemini and has been reviewed by Todd Gleason.*

Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Naomi Blohm with TotalFarmMarketing.com, Greg Johnson of TotalGrainMarketing.com, and AgMarket.net’s Jim McCormick.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.