WILLAg Radio Week 30 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending July 24, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

The agricultural commodity markets experienced strong upward momentum and heightened volatility throughout the week, with November soybean futures making new contract highs above $12.50 and December corn approaching the $4.90 to $5.00 resistance levels. Analysts attribute this bullish trend to a confluence of global supply disruptions, expanding domestic demand, and geopolitical conflicts. Escalating military actions in the Black Sea—including missile and drone strikes on grain port infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia—severely restricted Black Sea export shipments. Concurrently, heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping corridors added risk premiums across both grain and energy sectors.

Severe drought and extreme heatwaves across Western Europe drastically reduced European wheat and corn yields. Dan Basse highlights that he believes Western European crop damages will transform the European Union into the world’s largest corn importer—taking 27 to 29 million metric tons. In domestic oilseed markets, soybean prices led the complex higher, driven by record domestic crush margins exceeding $3.00 per bushel due to expanded renewable diesel production requirements. Ben Brown and Curt Kimmel noted an economic anomaly: despite U.S. soybeans and corn trading at significant price premiums over South American origins, China executed daily flash purchases of U.S. new-crop soybeans. Dave Chatterton and Ben Brown explained these purchases align with trade commitments and political maneuvering ahead of diplomatic summits, alongside hedging against potential South American production risks.

Market analysts—including Naomi Blohm, Matt Bennett, Greg Johnson, and Curt Kimmel—emphasized that while supply uncertainties exist, producers should focus on locking in profitability through scale-up sales or establishing price floors via options to protect gains while maintaining upside potential.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Weather developments across the U.S. Corn Belt displayed a stark regional contrast this week, as favorable conditions in the central and eastern regions stood in sharp opposition to severe heat and drought stress worsening across the western and northern growing areas. Mark Russo and Drew Lerner reported that core eastern production areas—including Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Iowa—benefited from near-normal rainfall and a timely influx of moderate, cooler air during critical corn pollination windows, preserving soil moisture and mitigating crop stress.

Conversely, weather conditions degraded significantly across South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, and western Iowa. Don Day outlined a persistent high-pressure ridge shifting across the northern and western Corn Belt, blocking subtropical moisture and driving temperatures well above 100°F. Eric Snodgrass noted that far western fields exceeded 140 stress degree days, causing severe heat stress during pollination and preventing crop recovery overnight. Mike Tannura highlighted that while 30-day rainfall totals appeared near average, the preceding 15 days ranked as the seventh driest since 1979.

Predictive weather models project the upcoming 14-day period to be among the driest on record, compounded by an intense heat dome bringing 100°F to 108°F temperatures across the Plains and Dakotas. Drew Lerner added that persistent heat will severely impact livestock weight gain and stress Canadian prairie canola and spring wheat crops. Looking further ahead, Eric Snodgrass warned of a rapidly developing, historic “super El Niño” in the equatorial Pacific (+2.5°C anomaly), which historically shifts Midwest autumn weather toward significantly wetter conditions, raising concerns over narrow harvest windows, mud, and elevated crop disease risks.

Week’s News and Other Items

Crop Protection Network Update: Disease tracking from the Crop Protection Network identified localized tar spot hot spots in central Indiana, Vermillion County in Illinois, LaSalle, Kendall, Grundy, and Knox counties in Illinois, eastern Nebraska, and 16 counties in Iowa, while soybean disease pressure remained minimal.

Southern rust of corn, caused by the fungus Puccinia polysora, has now been confirmed in Illinois for the 2026 growing season. The first report was received on July 23 from Williamson County in southern Illinois. This confirmation indicates that southern rust spores have reached the state and that corn growers and agronomists should begin scouting, particularly in fields with susceptible hybrids that have not yet reached the later reproductive stages. The disease can develop rapidly under warm, humid conditions, so early detection is important when evaluating whether a fungicide application may protect yield. You may read more about detecting and treating for southern rust of corn on the Univeristy of Illinois cropCentral website.

First Southern Rust Report of 2026 in Illinois: What Corn Growers Should Know

About the Crop Insurance Harvest Price Option: The Harvest Price Option (HPO) in US crop insurance is overwhelmingly popular with farmers but acts contrary to a traditional safety net by making its largest payouts during highly profitable years. Since 2007, crop insurance has paid farmers an average of $2.2 billion more during years with double-digit market profits than in years with market losses. While lucrative for individual producers, this dynamic artificially inflates agricultural production costs across the sector and increases future reliance on government aid. The farmdoc team in a University of Illinois article proposes eliminating taxpayer-funded premium subsidies for HPO to curb these market distortions.

Harvest Price Option (HPO) Is Extremely Popular With Farmers but Is It Good Policy?

USDA Cuts Hit Illinois NRCS Hard: In 2025, the Trump administration reduced the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) workforce by 22% nationally. Consequently, nearly half of Illinois counties experienced a decline in local conservation staff, with seven counties losing their entire NRCS workforce. The reduction in personnel deprives farmers of crucial, highly localized expertise regarding soil history and river flooding patterns reports Illinois Public Media’s Abigail Bottar. Staffing shortages and decreased funding for conservation initiatives threaten the effectiveness of agricultural conservation programs.

USDA cuts remove local conservation experts from nearly half of Illinois counties

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences Agronomy Days

July
30 – Resources, Services, and Tools for Farmers with Disabilities

August
06 – Crop Physiology Field Day
12 – Insect Management and Field Plot Tour

September
16 – Alma Mater Plots Agronomy Day

October
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing, Greg Johnson with TGM, and Curt Kimmel from AgMarket.net.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.