WILLAg Radio Week 36 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending September 4, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Throughout the week, agricultural markets experienced multi-year highs driven by strong demand, geopolitical friction, and weather-related supply concerns, before softening ahead of the holiday weekend. Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) noted that soybean futures rallied above $13 resistance due to robust domestic demand, Chinese export sales, and biofuel requirements. Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing) observed that the multi-year highs made farmers hesitant to sell, despite a rapidly accelerating early harvest caused by intense late-summer heat. Matt Bennett (AgMarket.net) highlighted volatile, two-sided trade as speculative buying met profit-taking, noting that heat is advancing drydown without severely damaging early-planted corn. During the Commodity Week broadcast, panelists Matt Bennett, Shane Holtorf (Logic Ag Marketing), and Sherman Newlin (Zaner Ag Hedge) discussed expectations that upcoming USDA yield estimates will fall due to variable weather damage. The panel highlighted global drivers, including strong Chinese demand, Black Sea export disruptions, and potential Brazilian production impacts from a Super El Niño, advising producers to lock in profitable prices with incremental sales while maintaining call options. By week’s end, Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics) reported softer corn, soybean, and wheat trade, reflecting harvest pressure and weak chart signals in the wheat and crude oil sectors.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Forecasts throughout the week tracked a historic and persistent late-summer heatwave across the United States, alongside significant global anomalies tied to a strong El Niño pattern. Don Day (Day Weather) reported that above-average heat would dominate the Corn Belt for 7 to 10 days, with the most intense heat and dryness centered in the Western Corn Belt. Drew Lerner (World Weather Inc.) noted this high-pressure ridge was blocking moisture from the central and eastern Midwest, exacerbating drought conditions across the hard red winter wheat belt from Kansas to Texas. Mike Tannura (Tstorm Weather) emphasized the severity of the heat, indicating temperatures running 8 to 10 degrees above normal, marking some of the warmest 14-day stretches on record for U.S. corn and soybeans. Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions) added that the persistent heat is compounding severe drought stress in the Western U.S. and Southern Plains, while the El Niño pattern has caused a sluggish Atlantic hurricane season. Internationally, meteorologists closely monitored South America; Day and Tannura noted unseasonable early rains in Brazil’s Center-West that could prompt premature soybean planting. However, Snodgrass and Lerner warned that irregular precipitation patterns might force replanting efforts later in the season. Tannura also highlighted heavy rains soaking southern South American grain belts, while Lerner pointed to severe drought and wildfires in Indonesia contrasted with drenching rains in the Philippines.

The Week’s News and Other Items

Trump Admin’s EPA SRE Announcement a Reallocation: The EPA’s decision to grant roughly 1.8 billion gallons in small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2025 initially sparked demand concerns, but agricultural economist Scott Irwin describes the move as unvarnished good news for agriculture and biofuels. The agency announced a supplemental rulemaking to fully reallocate 100 percent of those waived volumes into the 2026 and 2027 renewable fuel mandates, a move that surprised Irwin, who had only anticipated a 70 percent reallocation. While this decision is largely neutral for corn and ethanol, Irwin emphasizes that restoring the lost volumes provides a significant boost and establishes a positive trend for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and soybean oil markets.

farmdoc 2027 Corn and Soybean Returns: Agricultural economist Nick Paulson reports that rising commodity prices have improved the revenue outlook for Illinois farmers in 2026 and 2027, projecting positive returns for corn and soybeans across most of the state for the first time since before 2023. However, escalating production costs—particularly for fertilizer and fuel tied to Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts—continue to tighten overall margins, keeping net returns below the long-term average of $100 per acre. To navigate these elevated costs, Paulson advises producers to prioritize profitability over maximum yield by optimizing fertilizer application rates based on university recommendations and carefully evaluating major capital investments in machinery and land. Paulson was joined by farmdoc colleague Gary Schnitkey for a webinar detailing the budgets (also released as farmdoc article). The powerpoints and an archive of the webinar are available on the farmdoc Daily website.

Sulfur and Increasing Phosphate Fertilizer Prices: Phosphate fertilizer prices, including DAP and MAP, have steadily climbed over the past two years, largely driven by surging costs for sulfur, an essential byproduct of petroleum processing. Agricultural economist Nick Paulson explains that global sulfur prices have spiked from under $100 per ton in early 2024 to over $1,000 per ton, fueled by high energy costs and severe infrastructure damage from the war in Iran. Because these supply shocks and infrastructure issues are expected to persist for years, Paulson advises farmers to utilize soil testing results to apply only necessary nutrients, managing high input costs while maintaining proper soil fertility. You may read more on the farmdoc Daily website.

Sabbatical Insights from Columbia and the Grain Trade: University of Illinois agricultural economist Joe Janzen is spending his sabbatical year in Bogotá, Colombia, to study international grain demand and the growth of U.S. agricultural exports. He explains that a 2010 free trade agreement, which took twelve years to fully phase in, has successfully made Colombia a top destination for U.S. corn and soybean meal, primarily supporting its domestic poultry and livestock sectors. Janzen is researching how these importers react to rising grain prices and the complex motives driving global trade.

Data Centers, Civic Engagement, and University Educations: University of Illinois natural resources and environmental sciences student Bruce Beem and a grassroots coalition are actively engaging with the Champaign County Board to shape a proposed ordinance regulating new hyperscale data centers. Beem highlights significant gaps in the proposal, specifically the lack of long-term site remediation plans and the failure to account for the impact of artificial light and noise pollution on local wildlife. He warns that the facilities’ continuous hum and expanded light footprint could severely disrupt the foraging and migration patterns of birds, such as whippoorwills, which rely heavily on the area. By advocating for an extended moratorium to allow for further research and stronger safeguards, Beem demonstrates how civic engagement translates academic ecological knowledge into real-world environmental policy alongside experienced community members.

Labor Day (First Monday in September): The history of Labor Day in the United States is deeply connected to Peter McGuire, an Irish immigrant who began working as a child in New York City to support his impoverished family during the Civil War era. Experiencing firsthand the grueling hours, low pay, and dangerous working conditions of the nineteenth century, McGuire became a passionate advocate for workers’ rights and organized labor. Despite facing government resistance and personal unemployment, he successfully united workers across various trades and founded the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America. His relentless campaigning for an eight-hour workday and secure jobs ultimately led to the creation of a holiday dedicated to laborers, with the first Labor Day parade taking place in New York City on September 5, 1882.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

—

WILLAg.org Calendar

September
10 – Illinois Crop Management Field Day
17 – farmdoc Webinar | Farmland Values and Rental Agreements in Illinois for 2027
19 – Celebrate Food and Ag Tailgate – ILLINOIS vs SIU
26 – Crop Sciences Harvest Open House
30 – University of Illinois Homecoming

October
06 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots

December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention

—

Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Matt Bennett with AgMarket.net, Shane Holtorf of Logic Ag Marketing, and Sherman Newlin from Zaner Ag Hedge.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.