WILLAg Radio Week 38 in Review
The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending September 18, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.
Agricultural Markets Synthesis
Throughout the week, agricultural commodity markets were shaped by early harvest progress, surging energy-related transportation surcharges, speculative fund activity, and geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. Early in the week, Frayne Olson (North Dakota State University) emphasized that while crude and diesel spikes do not directly suppress physical grain demand, escalating railroad and barge fuel surcharges alter the flow and timing of grain deliveries, widening basis levels and forcing farmers and end-users to share increased logistics costs. There is more on harvest time basis later in this newsletter. Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) noted unexpected technical strength in soybeans despite bearish chart reversals left in the wake of the September USDA crop report, as traders weighed an 11-month low in the August soybean crush against potential trade progress with China. Blohm also highlighted updated CONAB data from Brazil indicating sufficient old-crop ending stocks alongside reduced export projections. Midweek, Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing) examined price volatility stirred by rumors surrounding Chinese President Xi Jinping’s health at the BRICS summit, which caused a sharp intraday drop in soybean futures. Johnson also discussed CONAB’s projections for a 10.7% increase in Brazil’s 2026–2027 first crop corn and a 3.7% increase in the safrinha corn —driven primarily by domestic ethanol and livestock demand—while noting that speculative funds hold record-long positions in corn and near-record longs in soybeans. Following the Federal Reserve’s unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, Johnson urged producers to “draw a line in the sand” and protect margins given the 14% to 20% rally in grains since mid-summer. Later in the week, Matt Bennett (AgMarket.net) echoed concerns over tight global balances, noting that Ukrainian export logistics continue to face severe obstacles across the Black Sea and inland waterways, while U.S.-Canada tariff friction creates downside risks for U.S. corn ethanol exports.
On the Commodity Week panel, Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing), Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting), and Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing) stressed that soaring diesel prices—surpassing pre-2008 records—have prompted railroads to recover up to 90% of increased fuel costs via surcharges, while truck freight has risen 15% to 20% and barge rates have jumped from 204 to 250 on the AMS index. These elevated freight costs are placing downward pressure on interior cash corn bids, whereas strong processor demand and export inquiries have kept soybean basis comparatively firm. Zuzolo highlighted that macroeconomic headwinds, such as a spiking U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and rumors of a pre-election U.S. diesel export ban, could introduce sharp downside risk into paper futures, even while physical balances remain structurally tight.
Agricultural Weather Synthesis
Agricultural weather forecasts throughout the week tracked a persistent meteorological divide across the United States, marked by heavy rainfall in the northern Corn Belt, extreme heat in the south, and fluctuating outlooks for domestic winter wheat and international growing regions. Early in the week, Mark Russo (EverStream Analytics) reported that an anomalously warm pattern across the Midwest would be paired with above-normal rainfall over the northern Corn Belt, while the southern Corn Belt and Delta would remain warm and dry, facilitating rapid early harvesting. Furthermore, he linked a strengthening, historically powerful El Niño to an improving precipitation setup across the hard red winter wheat belt from Kansas through the Texas Panhandle. Drew Lerner (World Weather, Inc.) reinforced this assessment, stating that northern harvest operations would face prolonged slowdowns from saturated soils. Internationally, Lerner highlighted severe moisture deficits across Europe; west-central France received only 25% of normal rainfall since mid-March, causing water levels on the Rhine and Danube rivers to fall so drastically that commercial barge traffic was severely disrupted. Mike Tannura (Tstorm Weather), Thursday, warned that repeated heavy rains across southern Brazil threatened wheat crop quality, though early rains in Mato Grosso provided an acceptable baseline for soybean planting. Friday, Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions) concluded the week by expressing skepticism regarding weather models projecting rapid October cooling under the “Super El Niño,” warning that persistent warmth and an active storm track could narrow fall harvest windows across the Midwest.
The Week’s News and Other Items
Cash Rent Projections for 2027: Agricultural economists from the University of Illinois addressed cash rent benchmarks and projections for the 2027 crop year. Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Juo-Han Tsay (U of IL TIAA Center for Farmland Research) released county-level cash rent data and hosted an informational webinar reviewing USDA-NASS and Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers surveys. The data indicated that average Illinois cash rents softened slightly to $261 per acre in 2026, down from the 2024 peak. Tsay noted during our WILLAg.org interview that while summer surveys initially pointed to a $3 to $5 per acre decrease for 2027, recent rallies in grain prices may temper that drop. However, because surging diesel and general input expenses continue to compress net farm operating margins below historical long-term averages, farmland rental rates are projected to remain largely steady to slightly softening into 2027.
The Size and Timing of the Harvest Low in Corn Basis: Based on seasonal data from 2010 to 2025 across 136 elevators in 12 US Corn Belt states, the farmdoc study finds that the regional average basis typically bottoms out in mid-October. This timing directly aligns with the midway point of the harvest season when supply pressure peaks. During this broad trough, which lasts for roughly five weeks, the Corn Belt average basis dips 11 cents per bushel below its end-of-November baseline. However, this regional average smooths out steeper localized declines; the median drop is 16 cents overall and reaches 19 cents per bushel in Illinois. The most severe basis depressions are geographically concentrated in the central Corn Belt, particularly at locations that accumulate supply from expansive areas, such as river transport hubs. Ultimately, the historical data confirms a synchronized relationship between the acceleration of harvest progress and the temporary weakening of local corn basis levels.
Diesel Fuel Prices Spike: The agricultural energy complex experienced severe supply pressures and price escalations throughout the week. Dave Chatterton (Strategic Farm Marketing) reported that U.S. distillate fuel inventories dropped to 13% to 14% below five-year averages as ongoing conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East constrained global supplies, pushing national retail diesel prices past $6 per gallon and farm-level transport loads to between $40,000 and $45,000. Patrick DeHaan (GasBuddy.com) explained that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining facilities have paralyzed roughly one-ninth of global diesel refining capacity, while Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and drone strikes on the Saudi East-West pipeline have heightened crude delivery risks. DeHaan added that domestic refineries are operating above 98% capacity with zero operational margin, projecting that diesel could reach $6.50 to $7.00 per gallon. In response to rising farm fuel burdens, Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed openness to considering a federal ban on U.S. diesel exports, a proposal that faced skepticism from Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. Concurrently, Energy Information Administration data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association revealed that domestic ethanol production held steady at 1.1 million barrels per day (46.16 million gallons daily), representing a 4.2% increase year-over-year and 11.9% above the five-year average.
Conab Projects Brazil’s 2027 Corn and Soybean Production: Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) confirmed that major agricultural commodities are reaching historic heights, projecting a record 148 million metric tons of corn (a 2.8% annual increase) and 181.6 million metric tons of soybeans (a 0.7% increase) will be produced in 2027. While total grain acreage is expanding, the underlying dynamics diverge heavily; corn is benefiting from aggressive area expansion driven by thriving domestic industries, whereas soybean acreage growth has slowed to just 1.4%—marking its slowest expansion rate in 20 years. On the demand front, a substantial chunk of the expanding corn crop is being structurally absorbed within Brazil by surging livestock feed needs and corn-based ethanol plants, lifting domestic corn consumption by 6.7%. Even with this domestic consumption boom, Brazil will remain an exporter, with projected shipments of 46 million tons of corn and an all-time high 118 million tons of soybeans largely bound for China. Check out the current marketing year (2025/26) Conab numbers converted to bushels on the WILLAg.org website under the USDA tab.
Data Centers and Electric Cooperatives: Rapid expansion of large-scale artificial intelligence data centers has introduced substantial power supply hurdles for rural utilities. Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), reported that individual data centers demanding up to 800 megawatts can instantly triple the entire baseline electricity load of a rural electric cooperative. Matheson stressed that electric co-ops must carefully balance this sudden step-function demand to preserve grid reliability and prevent cost-shifting or rate hikes onto existing farm and rural residential consumers. He also called for comprehensive federal permitting reforms to establish predictable timelines for transmission and generation infrastructure, while maintaining local utility authority over project integration.
Farm and Rural Legislation Update: On the federal legislative front, key agricultural and rural bills advanced through Congress. Republican Senator Mitch McConnell returned from a three-month health absence to cast the deciding 12th Republican vote on the Senate Agriculture Committee, advancing the Senate Farm Bill to the floor after it had been stalled by committee Democrats since August. The committee’s approval marked a victory for Chair John Boozman, overcoming disputes surrounding livestock production amendments linked to California’s Proposition 12, leaving Majority Leader John Thune to determine floor scheduling ahead of the November elections. Additionally, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the bipartisan AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act via voice vote, sending the measure to the Senate to mandate AM radio access in all new commercial vehicles.
That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.
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September
26 – Crop Sciences Harvest Open House
30 – University of Illinois Homecoming
October
06 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
22 – farmdoc Webinar | First Look at the ARC/PLC Decision for 2026
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots
December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoriaf
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb
January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention
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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing, Greg Johnso of Total Grain Marketing, and Mike Zuzolo at Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting.
The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.